Presidential candidate Donald J. Trump is unquestionably leading the 17 GOP contenders in every national poll.
For example, here are the numbers from a recent Quinnipiac University poll: Trump tops the list at 20%, with Scott Walker at 13%, and Jeb Bush at 10%. The rest of the pack all register in single digits.
Trump is the golden haired boy among the "I'm mad as hell and not going to take this anymore" crowd. He has made the most outlandish statements, generated the most buzz, and left the rest of GOP players in the hinterland. The other 16 Republican candidates have done nothing to distinguish themselves from the rest of the pack. They look like clones in a house of mirrors. Trump has been driving the clown car, and watching them in his own rear-view mirror. But is his vehicle headed for a crash?
If Trump supporters want to accept these high poll numbers, they must also live with this harsh reality. A massive 68% support the other 16 GOP candidates (and the remaining 12% were undecided). Furthermore 30% of those Republicans polled state they would definitely NOT support Trump-- higher negatives than any other GOP candidate. In fact, Trump has the worst favorability rating on any candidate in EITHER party. And there are even more "inconvenient truths"-- in a race with Hillary, the poll shows him losing by a whopping 12%. Biden would beat him by 11%, and even Bernie Sanders trumps him by 8%.
There are two groups that hope Trump is the nominee-- his supporters and the Democrats. It appears that the only way Trump could win is if he could run in a general election against 16 other GOP candidates and no Democrat ran.
It's early and a lot can change between now and any nomination or election. But I don't need a poll to tell me which candidate is most likely to make a major misstep and cost himself the game. That would be the one they call "The Donald." I prefer to think of him as Humpty Dumpty, and we all know how that ended.
The first GOP "debate" will be held on Thursday, August 6. I am hesitant to call any of these events "debates," whether they are showcasing the Republicans or the Democrats. They are so highly structured that they are more like beauty pageants, where each of the contestants gets a few moments to strut their stuff and to tell you how they will achieve world peace. This is the perfect forum for Trump, who in the past has had considerable experience with such contests. Thank goodness for all of us there won't be a bathing suit competition.
With Trump in the mix, the ratings should be high. He should give a boost to the debate audience in the same way Caitlyn Jenner gave the ESPY Awards the highest ratings ever. At the end of the day, it's show business.
This GOP event is divided into two tiers. The top 10 contenders will strut their stuff at 9 PM EST. The others are "The Not Ready for Prime-Time Players" who will play show-and-tell at 5 PM EST. Even though they are relegated to the children's table, at least they won't have Trump ruining their dinner. In fact, if they play it smart, they actually might be in a better position to get their message out there without having to deal with the Trump distraction.
There are 12 such debates on the GOP agenda, giving them multiple opportunities to make each other look bad and hand the election to the Democrats. They've done it before and they can do it again. In the words of Walt Kelly's Pogo, "We have met the enemy and he is us."
Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus has asked the Republican candidates to stop the name calling and has asked for a pledge that none of them will run as a third party candidate. I wonder if Trump got the memo.