McCain's Deadliest Catch: Polls Say GOP In Deep Water

Two major daily tracking polls spell ominous news for the GOP.

One of my favorite reality shows, The Deadliest Catch, documents the dangers of Alaskan fisherman as they search for crab in the frosty and ferocious Bering Sea. It seems a perfect metaphor for the McCain candidacy now losing ground to Barack Obama after the Republican presidential candidate's reckless choice of a running mate in the obscure, social conservative Sarah Palin, Alaska's governor.

After Barack Obama's acceptance speech before more than 75,000 in a packed Denver football stadium -- and more than 38 million watching on television, the largest ever -- Obama opened his lead 49-41 percent over McCain in the most recent Gallup Poll daily tracking survey (ending Aug.28). For weeks, the two had been virtually tied at 45 percent.

Gallup reported that Obama's 8 percentage-point lead almost matches Obama's biggest margin of the campaign, a 9-point lead in tracking polls conducted July 24-26.

Hoping to blunt the Obama post-Democratic National Convention bump, McCain introduced his vice presidential pick -- on the very day McCain turned 72 -- to the bewilderment of news organizations waiting to cover the event live and to some of his own party leaders and professional pundits here and abroad.

Naturally, everyone was wondering what the hell McCain was doing.

Was he trying to recapture his 'maverick' reputation? Was he hoping to win over the Democratic and Independent women still angry Hillary didn't get the nomination? Was he attempting to solidify his base among social conservatives who never really believed McCain believed in their anti-gay, anti-choice, anti-environmental philosophy? Was he displaying the risky behavior that won Tom Cruise's character the nickname "Maverick" in the movie, Top Gun?

Palin, self-described as "against abortions and for guns" displayed significant charm and retail political skill during her first glare in the national spot light as four of her five children and her professional fisherman and oilfield worker husband stood by her side. Unfortunately, she has little else to recommend that qualifies her to be "a heart beat" away from leading the most powerful country in the world. Recent polls agree.

About 40 percent of American polled said they consider Sarah Palin to be qualified to become president, according to a separate USA Today/Gallup poll taken on August 30 and that's the lowest level since Dan Quayle was chosen by the first President Bush as his running mate.

A full 30 percent didn't think Palin was qualified to become president compared to 57 percent who considered Sen. Joe Biden, the Democratic vice presidential candidate, to be ready for the job. Only 18 percent didn't think the Delaware senior senator couldn't handle the top job in the nation.

As far as grabbing disenchanted Hillary Clinton supporters by choosing the first female Republican vice presidential candidate, don't think so.

Only 9 percent of the Democratic women polled said they were more likely to pull the Republican lever in November and 15 percent said they were less likely to back McCain. Twenty percent of all women said Palin on the GOP ticket would make them more likely to support McCain and 11 percent weren't buying the McCain-Palin ticket at all.

Name recognition for the obscure Alaska Governor, who is only twenty months into her first term? The Gallup/USA Today poll found that fully half of all those questioned had never heard of Palin prior to the McCain announcement.

In a similar finding, the Rasmussen Report tracking poll reported that 35 percent said Palin's selection made them more likely to vote for McCain while 33 percent said they were less likely to back the McCain-Palin duo.

Rasmussen found that Sen. Obama had also widened his lead 47-43 percent over McCain since Friday, the biggest margin in that poll since July. The poll also found that among undecided voters who say they are leaning toward one candidate or another, Obama leads 49-45 percent over McCain.

These numbers are just daily tracking polls but they must be worrisome to the McCain camp and the GOP coattails so necessary in the congressional races.

Palin will now be vetted by the national press and the blogosphere and it won't be pretty.

She's got 6 weeks to learn foreign and economic policy. The honeymoon will shortly end. She's been the mayor of a small town (7,000 population), a 'hockey' mom, a college athlete, a two-year TV sports announcer, beauty queen, mother of five. Friends in Alaska reported to me she's isn't all that bright but "she's not on the take." She is, however, currently under investigation. She wants the polar bear off the endangered species list and supports new drilling in Alaska. She's already flip flopped on the 'Bridge to Nowhere' and has supported earmarks consistently. She's no maverick and it's unlikely she is the kind of female candidate most Hillary Clinton supporters would find appealing.

Well, Captain McCain has chosen and it's a gutty risky choice equal to any adventure or misadventure in the Bering Sea. So, snuff out your cigarettes boys and slip into your winter gear and boots because this is going to be one hellacious ride to the November election.

This is the 'real' Deadliest Catch, only the prize isn't king crab or opilio crab. It's the White House.

Comments

[zedthewizard]

six weeks to learn foreign policy misses the point

SHE ONLY HAS TO APPEAR TO HAVE LEARNED FOREIGN POLICY

she just has to make sure of geography, mccains positions, and a little reasoning.

that aint that hard.

[jacqmac]

I agree. WOMEN especially had better get out there and do the 'scut work' for the Obama campaign. Good news is that daily tracking polls cited on Huffpost recently show that a 'female bounce' hasn't happened. Most specifically, a "Hillary voter" bounce hasn't happened. Au contraire. The exact opposite has happened and a few MORE 'Hillary voters' are now more likely to VOTE FOR OBAMA! These polls, incidentally, ALSO include the last three days of everyone running around trying to find out information on Ms. Palin. While I'm sure that she is a WONDERFUL person, great mom, civically responsible, religious, cute etc., I just don't think she's in it to win it!

[realpolitic]

Palin may only be a serious detriment to the Republican ticket if she makes several gaffes when speaking like not knowing where Russia is. Conservatives intrinsically do not seem to trust very bright candidates for office. Denying science, carrying a concealed handgun to your kid's baseball game only endear one to the Republican base.

[alphax]

"She's got 6 weeks to learn foreign and economic policy" Hey, and its possible her daughter may go into labour during this time.

Where will her focus be?

[EvasDaddy]

One correction to your piece: Palin was in high school athletics, not college. Big difference.

Obama/Biden 2008-2012

[blitzlicht]

Remember James Stockdale, Ross Perot´s running mate in 1992? I'm not saying that she'll open the vice-presedential debate with "Who am I? Why am I here?" but she'll be as much fun for the comedians (and the rest of us) as Stockton was. The difference might be, that Stockton actually was a smart person, who after his retirement as Vice Admiral become a fellow of the Hoover Institution at Stanford.

[XME]

Hopefully most Americans aren't as stupid as McCain is counting on. I do think that because of his age, more people will really think about her readiness than they normally do of VP picks. What he really did with this pick was make this all about his age!

[Twentylaws]

Twice I have heard today people suggesting Palin be "dropped" from McCain's ticket! I agree! I can remember President Bush stating he is going to bring back the "Moral party" to his candidacy. In lieu of President Clinton sex scandal Republicans hold up "family values"....geesh! Was Palin listening? Obviously, her daughter wasn't! What is a shame is there are people who really think Palin is a wise choice for McCain! IN WHAT WORLD?

Who in their right mind enters a Presidential race with such "liabilities" as Gov. Palin? The Republicans must think they are GODS and anything goes! Whoa...how many more bizarre twist n turns will this Election take between now and Nov 4th?

Let me just shout....'E N O U G H"

[CRayD11]

I agree - neither of them deserve consideration in November based on this choice alone...

[myrddin]

McCains selection of Palin changes the focus of the campaign. No longer is Obama under the microscope. It is now Palin and McCains age and heatlh under scrutiny. Great selection for Democrats.

[BevDavis]

couldn't agree more!

[jeanrenoir]

Those most in danger of suicidal smugness in response to Palin are feminists. I'm totally for Obama, but I'm also worried about Palin, because she is the epitome of the Reagan to Rove winning insight about the American masses that they love to vote for someone "just like us," especially when such a Reagan, Bush, or Palin dunce gets savaged by the educated elites the mob is always "bitter" about, to coin a phrase. There's a reason why Sandra Bullock and Julia Roberts are the favorite actresses of the American masses, and they play characters like Miss Congeniality and Erin Brockovich who are the ideals of Middle America. Palin's obviously all these ideals rolled into one, including looking the part. Palin was nominated not just to help McCain soften his preppy, Episcopal High persona for the mob, but to eventually be the female Reagan, the woman who breaks through the glass ceiling in order to annihilate feminism itself. If Palin wins in '08, she'll absolutely destroy Hillary in '12. So feminists, above all, had better be both careful and very afraid.

[BevDavis]

Apparently Sarah Palin was not chosen as Miss Congeniality according to the woman who was chosen! There are so many deceptions and misreads on Palin that are just now starting to unravel the narrative the GOP is pushing. Frankly, I don't mind messy lives, most woman have them, including me but McCain didn't do the proper vetting and of all people, Sarah Palin is not one that frightens me.

[robXdion]

She's already got 4-5 running scandals already. And she's practically endorsed Obama. She's done.

[BevDavis]

It gets deeper...wait until the investigative journalists land in Alaska...they're on their way!

[OdaNobunaga]

I thought the investigative journalist became extinct after the emergence of the 24-hour-tabloids, which now dominate the MSM.

[zeno99]

Americans tend to vote not so much on the issues as on their emotional reaction to the candidate.
It's lukewarm to McCain but may warm up for Palin, expecially after the hullabaloo over her daughter's pregonancy on CNN,etc, I can't forget how the voters fell for that SOB "Unky" Reagan or how glamlour boy Clinton wowed the crowd. Palin is still a cutie even if long after the beauty contest age and don't underestimate her apeal