NOTE: I originally published this on my home blog, The Bilerico Project. I'll keep updating the story over there as more tips come in.
I'm going to put my neck out on the line by making a prediction. Barack Obama will announce his vice-presidential choice Wednesday morning. It will be Indiana Senator Evan Bayh.
While Washington Post columnist Chris Cillizza has positioned Bayh at the top of the heap for a few weeks now, after getting tips to Bilerico-Indiana and making some logical conclusions the choice is obvious. Why?
Multiple reasons - including an inside scoop from an Obama staffer on an upcoming event.
Here's my reasoning:
The Olympics start on Friday and run until the Democratic convention starts. He won't want to compete with the Olympics for press coverage. He'll announce before the Olympics starts. If he announces on Wednesday morning, he'll get coverage all day and be on the news cycle until the Opening Ceremonies knock him off the top spot.
Barack Obama is coming to the state on Tuesday afternoon for a campaign stop in Elkhart, Indiana. He'll be attending with Evan Bayh. The press has been told to plan on staying until Wednesday afternoon/evening. Why would he spend so much time in Indiana with nothing on his public calendar?
Staying around Indiana allows Obama and Bayh to travel to Illinois, Michigan, and Ohio - all important states in this election. When you've just announced your VP, those are states you'll want to visit - especially since Bayh's reputation will help the most in those states.
The website ObamaBayh08.com is taken. For a tiny sliver of time late last week, you could type in the URL and you'd be forwarded to another site. Where do you think it took you? The Democratic Party website. (screencap from WHOIS below)
I just got an invite from the Obama campaign to attend an appearance on Wednesday that isn't on Obama's official calendar. Why not? The campaign said, "I can't tell you what the event is about, but we want to make sure you have a ticket so you can cover it for the Bilerico Project. We want Bilerico Project to be there for this one."
So what do you think? Is my thinking flawed or have I reached the logical conclusion? By the time you add in the case for Evan Bayh -- foreign policy experience, former Clinton supporter, popularity in the Midwest, not a media whore, experience as a popular former Governor and his youth and good looks -- it seems like a slam dunk to me.
NOTE: I originally published this on my home blog, The Bilerico Project. I'll keep updating the story over there as more tips come in.
I'm going to put my neck out on the line by making a predictio...
NOTE: I originally published this on my home blog, The Bilerico Project. I'll keep updating the story over there as more tips come in.
I'm going to put my neck out on the line by making a predictio...
Ironically, Bayh's father, former U.S. Senator Birch Bayh, apparently sits on the board of directors of the debt-ridden Simon Property real estate development firm that owns many shopping malls around the United States which have been accused of engaging in racial profiling in relation to African-American youths when they shop at Simon Property's malls.
classismwatch: Ironically, Bayh's father, former U.S. Senator Birch Bayh, apparently sits
"Obama-Bayh" would not look good on a bumper sticker. It even sounds like a village in Japan.
Right. The Republicans would have a field day punning those two names. Barack Obama's VP choice should be someone who has positive credentials in the longterm, not just someone to help him win the Presidency.
boing007: Julie02 "Obama-Bayh" would not look good on a bumper sticker.
He fiips Indiana with this pick. Unless the unthinkable happens, Bayh will remain in the background while Obama runs the Executive. I see nothing wrong with this choice.
spiffarino: He fiips Indiana with this pick. Unless the unthinkable happens,
It's JIM WEBB, think about all of his credentials and that because he removed himself no one is looking at him now, but no one completes Barack's paradigm-shift as does Webb!
John Warren Gotsch: It's JIM WEBB, think about all of his credentials and
I was disappointed when Webb took himself out of the running for VP. Kaine is not nearly as impressive as Webb. Bayh is a conservative DLC DINO. THe best thing about him is that he's boring, and once in office, can be ignored or sent off to state funerals. I guess I'm back to hoping Obama picks McCaskill or Richardson.
nurseattorney: I was disappointed when Webb took himself out of the
No matter what candidate he chooses to put in the VP ticket, there will be positives and negatives about that person. There will be stands that he/she holds on some issues, for which I will disagree. Nevertheless, I will accept his choice and understand that he needs to make a strategic decision.
And of course I expect that democrats will whine about it endlessly, because we are so good at whining. We like to whine so much, we frequently whine ourselves right out of contention.
nonconformist2: No matter what candidate he chooses to put in the
Silly people. It's going to be Hillary. As usual, Americans suck at Math. Screw what you've heard from all the MSNBC pundits, CNN Political "experts", and so on. Obama doesn't need Republicans to cross over. Obama doesn't need the fictional INDEPENDENTS to cross over. Obama SIMPLY needs to unite the Democratic party. If he does that. It's over for Grandpa, hands down, period. I have been an Obama supporter all the way. Math is math, and Hillary makes the most sense. Obama's tough, He can handle it.
patrickgarret: Silly people. It's going to be Hillary. As usual, Americans
"Fictional Independents"? The ones who were disappointed in Obama's flip flops? The people who'll be staying home? The 3-6% of the voters who'll be voting for Nader?
Democrats haven't met an election they didn't choose to lose, and I'd bet that will happen again.
Ergon: "Fictional Independents"? The ones who were disappointed in Obama's flip
Horrible choice. I'm a former Hoosier.
Just shows how corrupt the Dems have become and why I'm voting for Nader.
Bayh is a big fat ZERO.
Nader won't allow spying w/o a court order. These Dems now will.
Nader will end the war.
Obama will just move it over to and occupy Afghanistan.
Horrible choice. But Obama is no good either.
LeeCalif: Horrible choice. I'm a former Hoosier. Just shows how corrupt
No point in voting for Nader. He doesn't care about the issues he only cares about getting attention and to inflate his own ego. If he really wanted to do anything in government he would run for smaller office. I bet he could win a Congressional seat if he tried.
Don't demand a Progressive Purity, that will be the end of us. Think of this.
Would you rather have a watered down Winner ?
or a
Pure Breed Loser ?
Obama may not be perfect and might be running to the center, but I would rather have him in office than Mccain.
Stop throwing away your vote protesting for perfection, don't allow yourself to become a loser like Nader.
AdV2k1: No point in voting for Nader. He doesn't care about
line by making a prediction. Barack Obama will announce his vice-presidential choice Wednesday morning. It will be Indiana Senator Evan Bayh.
CAROLINE KENNEDY!
Irony for Bill and Dick Cheney, too. Whom better?
"Obama-Bayh" would not look good on a bumper sticker. It even sounds like a village in Japan.
Right. The Republicans would have a field day punning those two names. Barack Obama's VP choice should be someone who has positive credentials in the longterm, not just someone to help him win the Presidency.
And of course I expect that democrats will whine about it endlessly, because we are so good at whining. We like to whine so much, we frequently whine ourselves right out of contention.
Democrats haven't met an election they didn't choose to lose, and I'd bet that will happen again.
Just shows how corrupt the Dems have become and why I'm voting for Nader.
Bayh is a big fat ZERO.
Nader won't allow spying w/o a court order. These Dems now will.
Nader will end the war.
Obama will just move it over to and occupy Afghanistan.
Horrible choice. But Obama is no good either.
State of Denial
State of Mind
State of Confusion
Don't demand a Progressive Purity, that will be the end of us. Think of this.
Would you rather have a watered down Winner ?
or a
Pure Breed Loser ?
Obama may not be perfect and might be running to the center, but I would rather have him in office than Mccain.
Stop throwing away your vote protesting for perfection, don't allow yourself to become a loser like Nader.