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Bill Chameides

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Climate Change: North Carolinians Hope to Stop It in Its Tracks

Posted: 05/22/2012 7:16 pm

Crossposted with The Green Grok.

Legislation would just plain do away with global warming.

Government: too big or not big enough. It's a hot-button issue this election season. Lots of politicians think that government has gotten too big and powerful and needs to be cut down to size. Others see government as an agent of good and argue for more governmental power. Apparently nowhere is the latter sentiment more alive than in the halls of the North Carolina Legislature. Most politicians work to legislate the laws of society; in North Carolina some politicians hope to legislate the laws of nature. If that ain't governmental power, I don't know what is. 

The story begins with sea-level rise along the North Carolina coast.

Sea-Level Rise and North Carolina

The greatest threat that climate change poses to North Carolina could very well be sea-level rise. Some 2,250 square miles of the state's broad, low-lying coastal plain (or twice the land mass of Rhode Island) lie at an elevation of just five feet (1.5 meter) or less above sea level. Much of both the Outer Banks and the coastal plain sandwiched between the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds lie at one meter or less. (See elevation map.)

With sea level on the rise, the already tenuous system of bridges and roads linking the state's famed barrier islands to the mainland becomes even more imperiled and costly to maintain. Ultimately, sea-level rise could sound the death knell for much of the state's economic investments along the coast.

In recognition of these facts, the North Carolina Coastal Resources Commission asked a science panel to study the problem and make recommendations. With plenty of caveats about uncertainties and such, the panel recommended [pdf] that "a rise of 1 meter (39 inches) be adopted as the amount of anticipated rise by 2100, for policy development and planning purposes." (A summary of the panel's work and its reception by the State Legislature can be found here. Full report here [pdf].)

The Battle Is Joined, Sea Level ... Enjoined

It turns out that a projected sea-level rise of about one meter over the next 90 years or so is just plain unacceptable to certain North Carolinian factions. One such group, calling itself the NC-20 (for the 20 coastal counties its members supposedly hail from), is being driven, some have speculated, by coastal developers who fear that state and local policies based on such a rise in sea level would put the kibosh on their plans to build new condos, subdivisions, hotels, and the like.

According to the group's website, NC-20 "concentrate[s] primarily on actions to prevent regulation and rule making not based on science, to establish or maintain fairness in State funding (e.g. DOT), and to oppose predatory pricing in the areas of homeowners and dwelling insurance."

Apparently, even though the findings of the panel were based on science, they crossed the line of acceptability for NC-20 and so the group decided to work to quash the science panel's report. Such efforts are proudly described in an NC-20 report [pdf] entitled "Sea Level Rise: The Story from Beginning to End." It trumpets the group's "substantial victory with over-zealous State bureaucrats who were attempting to impose a 39" sea level rise planning mandate on all NC 20 counties."

According to NC-20, once the dust settled, the Coastal Resources Commission dismissed the science panel's findings. As best as I can tell, this is not literally true but pretty close. The commission has not actually dismissed the science panel's report, per se. It has simply directed one of its committees to prepare a planning document based on the report but without any mention of accelerating sea-level rise.

State Legislature Gets Into Act

So impressed with the ability of NC-20 to put an end to sea-level rise single-handedly, the North Carolina Senate decided to go one step further and legislate it away.

In late April a revised version of a bill from the state House surfaced in the Senate that would enshrine NC-20's view. This new bill [pdf] would:

  • limit sea-level rise to historical rates circa 1900,
  • specify that sea-level rise may be extrapolated linearly to estimate future rates of rise, and
  • disallow consideration of scenarios with accelerated rates of sea-level rise.

Should this legislation come to fruition, North Carolina would be planning for a sea-level rise of about one foot rather than the scientifically projected three feet by the end of the century. That leaves a whole lot of water unaccounted for. And it could leave whole communities up coastal creeks paying for roads and bridges that no longer make sense to maintain in the face of rising seas.

As of this writing, the jury's still out on the sea-level bill's fate. All this time I've been worrying about what will happen to my kids as a result of climate change. It was clear to me that we needed some really innovative, out-of-the-box solutions. Turns out we can just legislate it away. Big government to the rescue.

 

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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
silverwolf13
I know that I do not know.
05:38 PM on 05/25/2012
In other news, King Canute rose from the dead. He was declared King of North Carolina after he promised to order the sea not to rise.
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MJinCanada
Safe from zombies until my 2nd cup of coffee
12:15 AM on 05/27/2012
Well done. F&F!

And the exquisite irony is that King Canute ordered the tide to not come in as a lesson to sycophants who had to stand there and get wet feet along with him. The lesson: Don't BS me, guys. I know my limitations.
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Davidc Smith
Montani Sempre Liberi
11:45 AM on 05/23/2012
No doubt these NC small government conservatives will expect the federal government to subsidize and continue to pay for their flood insurance so they can sell expensive beech houses that will soon be under water. Me, I think I'll invest in a life jacket factory in the WV hills.... Gonna be kinda neat seeing population shift in my direction as the Carolina's become uninhabitable....Please burn more WVA coal as its very very gude for you and great for my property values.
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StephenBP
What's he building in there?
10:38 AM on 05/23/2012
Let's see, if we go with a linear extrapolation of current sea level rise, we have the following sea level rise in N.C.:

Oregon Inlet, N.C. 0.925 Feet per century
Beaufort, N.C. 0.843 Feet per century
Southport, N.C. 0.679 Feet per century
Wilmington, N.C.0.682 Feet per century

However, the rate of melting of Antarctic Ice and Greeland Ice is known to be accelerating, so unless we scale back the rate of global warming, the sea level rise is going to be substantially higher than those numbers...... But oh heck, why worry about anything? Don't worry! Be happy! We will all be daid long before the cheese hits the fan anyhow! Heck, most of the voters who will have to deal with this mess aren't even born yet!!!!!!! What do we care!!!!!! ????

Sincerely,

The backward looking legislators of N.C.

Have a nice day.
10:31 AM on 05/25/2012
the ice is melting and the sea not rising . So lets wait and see if the AGW folks are actually right - a big IF. and as we know, lowering world CO2 by 80% as the fanatics tell us we must is IMPOSSIBLE now and in the next few decades.....
ubrew12
that crazy uncle from Amarcord
04:33 PM on 05/25/2012
Take a good look at this sea level figure. Current sea level AND rate of rise are unprecedented IN THE LAST 2000 YEARS.
http://climatecrock.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/kemp.jpg
"So lets wait and see" That's an exponential curve there, buddy. The 'wait and see' alternative doesn't work for defusing a bomb either.
for further education:
http://climatecrocks.com/2012/01/09/climate-change-and-sea-level-rise-an-emerging-hockey-stick/
10:28 AM on 05/23/2012
Reality is just a liberal-pinko scam. There really are no legislators in NC, which is, itself a Grand Illusion.. Two, Al Gore makes money out of forcing people inland. He bought up condos in the Mid West.

Anyway, when it all comes down: you won't be there. I won't be there.
10:32 AM on 05/25/2012
good points. and we know the projected (by Gore) sea rise has not happened. Its BS scare tactics
11:49 AM on 05/25/2012
Neither has the NC legislature "happened". Who is behind the curtain? Its existence has been made up, so we will send them taxes. But, who are "them"?
04:36 PM on 05/25/2012
I don't know what Gore projected and don't care. What are the facts?

The sea level would be expected to rise as more melt water from ice sheets enter the seas and thermal explansion does its thing. The data from satellites, sediment cores, and tidal gauges are in close agreement. Ocean levels are rising and the rate of rise in increasing. From 1 mm/year in early 1900's to 3 mm/year in recent years. Of course, you can find periods when it goes down, just as some years the Standard and Poor's goes down though it may trend upwards over a longer period.

So, if the lifeguard says, "everybody in, sharks approaching", those are scare tactics?
07:56 AM on 05/23/2012
in honor of this we will have a bonfire this weekend..........carbon footprint day......make yours big too.........

the stupid thing is that we actually needed to get a burn permit and now post it within 100' of the fire........

the bobcats will be setting the main logs today.........i hope this helps NC
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jimboy71
Hen Diapheron Heautoi
07:28 PM on 05/23/2012
Get out your pitchforks.
01:47 AM on 05/25/2012
why?
03:09 PM on 05/26/2012
Yes, Earth has been mostly ice free - helped by Carbon forcing. We see ice melting more rapidly now than in our history. At some point (if we are continue increasing our emissions each year) we will achieve an ice free world. The added melt water and the thermal expansion of oceans will produce a 70M rise, which will "drown" 1/3 of current land masses. Indeed, it will freeze again, but it may take tens of thousands of years for conditions, such as changes in earth axis precession, for that to occur. During that time, we can blame Al Gore.
03:56 PM on 05/26/2012
i don't believe man is that powerful
05:44 PM on 05/26/2012
Yes, we are that powerful, unfortunately. 30 billion tons of CO2 emissions per year is a lot! Our atmosphere is very thin, relative to the dimensions of the Earth.

A few years back, two scientists discovered we were changing the amount of ozone in the upper atmosphere by the use of CFCs. Rates of skin cancer were skyrocketing in Australia, for example. Satellites "watched" the hole grow bigger and bigger year by year. We were that "powerful" to effect a global atmospheric change.

Man's activities, a few years back, were responsible for increasing the acidity of rain, killing hundreds if not thousands, of lakes in the US and Canada, because of dirty (sulfur and nitrogen oxides) emissions from power plants. We were that powerful.

In both of the above cases, scientists correctly diagnosed the causes, recommended solutions, and the proper policies (with industry objections, of course) were put into place.

We have driven many species into extinction, made deserts where there were lush forests, and now our reach has extended to global climate.

And, if by some crazy chance, 97% of the world's scientists, many in places where there are no Democrats or Republicans, are on the right track that we are headed for catastrophe, maybe we better get off our duffs and take precautions.
07:39 AM on 05/23/2012
I question the wisdom of building expensive structures on land masses that constantly move ie: the barrier island sand dunes.

Good luck trying to protect these homes and condos against a rising ocean.
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MJinCanada
Safe from zombies until my 2nd cup of coffee
12:33 AM on 05/27/2012
The most important part of any modern developer's planning appears to consist of quickly making enough money to be retired and far away when the home owners figure out that their homes are built on landslides, recently filled-in swamps, toxic wastelands and floodplains.
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Son of Liberty 1765
Exposing Government Lies.
10:06 PM on 05/22/2012
I love how the enviro-theologists assume the seas have already risen before it happens. They think the science is infallable not realizing the science is the work of scientists, fallable human beings.
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Dallas Dunlap
05:20 AM on 05/23/2012
SOL1765 - The two variables about sea level rise are: 1) How much CO2 will increase by the turn of the century and 2.) How fast ice melts in response to global warming. A one meter sea level rise is pretty much a median projection.
A sea level rise of one meter is very likely. It could well be more. It is unlikely to be less.
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Son of Liberty 1765
Exposing Government Lies.
07:44 AM on 05/23/2012
Too bad we have had no sea level rise since the 1980's when Algorism and his ilk first made these predictions. Too bad the IPCC has been called out and proven fraudulent retracting many of its own findings. Too bad Climategate proved the faux scientists behind the movement were conspiring to supress skeptics and hide declines in global temperature. Otherwise, you might be right.
11:39 AM on 05/25/2012
median projection where. the site being called out by the GW fanatics here is http://sealevel.colorado.edu/.

Looking more like 12.2 inches over the next 100 years. and oddly the rate seems to have become lower in the last decade.....
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chrisd3
Excelsior!
07:22 AM on 05/23/2012
So we should just ignore them and hope they're wrong.

That sounds like a real good plan.
11:40 AM on 05/25/2012
no lets look at them and plan for the 1 foot per century possible rise........
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Kenneth Alton
08:45 PM on 05/22/2012
"A time will come when people will not listen to accurate teachings. Instead, they will follow their own desires and surround themselves with teachers who tell them what they want to hear." - 2 Timothy 4:3

While the above quote refers to the Bible as being the "accurate teachings" in question, it underscores that in ALL matters people do have a weakness: We all desire to hear that which we most wish to hear.

Sometimes we will even go to great (and foolish) lengths to please our ears. Since I don't live in North Carolina let them lie to themselves if they so desire. Maybe they are right without knowing it, maybe the science is wrong. Or maybe I'll wake to find that the lot of them were all washed out to sea.

LOL

"Ages are no more infallible than individuals; every age having held many opinions which subsequent ages have deemed not only false but absurd; and it is as certain that many opinions, now general, will be rejected by future ages, as it is that many, once general, are rejected by the present."
- excerpted from John Stuart Mills' "On Liberty" (1859)
11:41 AM on 05/25/2012
go look at then DATA and then lets discuss "accurate teachings".
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Kenneth Alton
10:02 PM on 05/25/2012
If the question is about climate change, LOL, I just need to look to see my garden blooming more lovely than ever (or talk to my local farmer).  Living life is so much more real that reading about ilife on paper.
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Hikerguy22
This is your carbon footprint
08:13 PM on 05/22/2012
Very good point. Jekyll Island in south Georgia just had a makeover to the tune of 50 million dollars, funded mostly by the state's taxpayers. The new convention center, while very impressive, is not more than two hundred yards from high tide, with no sea wall that would protect it from an even a moderate storm surge.
Georgia is a republican state with a republican governor. So, now you know the rest of the story.
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mbkeefer
Elder Amateur Scientist
12:07 AM on 05/28/2012
What, they don't believe in hurricanes either?