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Bill Schneider

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Newt Gingrich -- Mr. Electability?

Posted: 01/23/2012 12:22 pm

They say Democrats fall in love and Republicans fall in line. Not in South Carolina, they didn't.

Newt Gingrich insisted that his victory in the South Carolina primary was an act of defiance of the nation's elites. In his victory speech, Gingrich called it a victory for those "who feel that the elites in Washington and New York have no understanding, no care, no concern, no reliability, and in fact do not represent them at all."

Gingrich? An anti-establishment outsider? He's the ultimate Washington insider -- a career politician who rose to become Speaker of the House. Later, he grew rich on his Washington connections.

Gingrich was right in one sense. He did defy the Republican Party establishment. Mitt Romney's their man. Nearly the whole GOP establishment has endorsed Romney, including the governor of South Carolina. On NBC's Meet the Press, Gingrich called Romney an "establishment candidate," while he described himself as a "Reagan populist conservative."

South Carolina is the Republican base. It has always voted for the establishment candidate -- Bob Dole over Pat Buchanan in 1996, George W. Bush over John McCain in 2000. What this year's South Carolina Republican primary proves is that the GOP's conservative base is in revolt. They refuse to have Romney pushed down their throats. In South Carolina, the Tea Party found its voice in the presidential campaign.

Gingrich's big breakthrough was to make himself look electable to South Carolina Republicans. Gingrich? Electable? He sure doesn't look electable to the party establishment.

Nearly half the voters in the South Carolina primary said they wanted a candidate who could beat President Obama. Electability was a bigger factor in South Carolina than in Iowa or New Hampshire. In Iowa and New Hampshire, Republican voters looking for a winner went strongly for Romney. In South Carolina, a majority of them voted for Gingrich.

That was Gingrich's big breakthrough. In Iowa, only 20% of those looking for someone to beat Obama voted for Gingrich. In New Hampshire, 12%. In South Carolina, a whopping 51%!

What made Gingrich suddenly look electable in South Carolina? Two things:

First, Gingrich showed fight. That happened in the debates. According to the exit poll, the more the debates mattered, the more you voted for Gingrich. "What they saw in the debate from Newt was that he was willing to take on the media. That gives us a sense that he might be willing to take on the Washington establishment," Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.), the patron saint of the Tea Party movement, said on CNN's "State of the Union."

Primaries are dominated by partisans. Partisans are fans. Fans want a fighter who stands up to his opponent. Gingrich called his South Carolina victory "an opportunity to nominate a genuine conservative who can debate and who can take it to Barack Obama." As Howard Dean once said, "Yeeeaaah!"

Romney did not show fight in the debates. When challenged to release his tax returns, he mumbled and fumbled and searched for an excuse, as some in the audience booed. Gingrich didn't even try to explain his callous behavior toward his former wife. He knew the best defense is a good offense. He used the question as a pretext to launch an attack on the news media, the hereditary enemy of conservatives.

That was the second reason why Gingrich came out looking more electable. Romney suddenly looked vulnerable. Romney's wealth, his business practices and his evasiveness about them made him look like an easy target for Democrats. The whole argument for Romney's campaign is electability. Conservatives may not like or trust Romney, but they were told at least he can beat Obama. Now they're not so sure.

The 2012 Republican race is likely to turn into a marathon. Will that harm the party's chances? The 2008 Democratic marathon between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton didn't seem to do much damage. It made Obama look stronger. He defeated the fearsome Clinton machine.

But there's one big difference between the Democrats in 2008 and the Republicans in 2012. In '08, Democrats liked both candidates and would have happily voted for either one. This year, establishment Republicans don't like or trust Gingrich and the conservative base doesn't like or trust Romney. It's a split that may not be so quick to heal.

 

Follow Bill Schneider on Twitter: www.twitter.com/BillSchneiderDC

They say Democrats fall in love and Republicans fall in line. Not in South Carolina, they didn't. Newt Gingrich insisted that his victory in the South Carolina primary was an act of defiance of the...
They say Democrats fall in love and Republicans fall in line. Not in South Carolina, they didn't. Newt Gingrich insisted that his victory in the South Carolina primary was an act of defiance of the...
 
 
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07:07 AM on 01/24/2012
How dumb are Republican voters? Newt Gingrich who makes millions of $$$ a year and has used his position as (disgraced and ousted) former speaker of the house to make those millions of $$ and has a $500K revolving credit account at Tiffany isn't an "elite"? After he touts that he's been in Washington since the late 70's in the debates, he says he's not a Washington insider? HOW DUMB??
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waldopepper
I'd tell you all about me if you were my friend.
06:09 AM on 01/24/2012
"The 2012 Republican race is likely to turn into a marathon."

I would VERY much like to see this befall the GOP. But I am beginning to think that the tenuous support that Romney had - has completely fallen through the floor and that no one will give him the time of day, let alone their support. 538.com has Newt projected to win Florida with just over an 80% chance.
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Bailey Reynolds
Gulf War vet, Recovering Republican
08:46 AM on 01/24/2012
That's pretty big! Unlike the epic '08 Dem race, the longer this plays out, the better off the president (and the people) will be.
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flossophy
the unfamous anti-establishment classical liberal
04:18 AM on 01/24/2012
Bill Schneider doesn't understand what the "establishment" really means.
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marco01
03:33 AM on 01/24/2012
Grinchie love to pull the "elite" card.

It's meaningless, but it works pretty well with the low information voter.
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Chris1962
NYC
01:38 AM on 01/24/2012
>>>Newt Gingrich insisted that his victory in the South Carolina primary was an act of defiance of the nation's elites.>>> I would have to agree. Tea Partiers started it by railing against the establishment taking it upon its sell-out self to select the presidential candidate. Voters showed, in the 2010 primaries, that they were taking their elections into their own hands and making their own choices.
11:31 PM on 01/23/2012
And perhaps the most overlooked explanation of all for Newt's rise?
VOTER FRAUD.

South Carolina Attorney General, Alan Wilson, "says the analysis found 953 ballots cast by voters listed as dead. In 71 percent of those cases, ballots were cast between two months and 76 months after the people died. That means they "voted" up to 6 1/3 years after their death."

Associated Press. South Carolina attorney general informs Justice Department of dead voters. 21 Jan 2012.

This is very likely just the tip of the Iceberg. As we know the Diebold voter machines might as well be labeled the Diabolic voter machines. Just read Bradblog.

Like George Carlin once reminded us on behalf of the American financial elite which directs both parties and the client press: WE OWN THIS PLACE.
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Katherine Schock
Over the hill,liberal,organic gardener
09:49 PM on 01/23/2012
Here's another option to consider...why South Carolina's values are not America's values! Newt knew his audience! http://www.alternet.org/newsandviews/article/765350 Interesting read.
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slash77
You have failed me for the last time !!!!!
09:20 PM on 01/23/2012
The GOP is scratching at the bottom of the barrel for candidates…..Newt is at the very bottom….

If he claims that President Obama makes Carter look good…… then Newt would make Nixon look like a choir boy!!!

Newt actually believes is own lies…. “I cheated on my wives because I love America”……. I cheated when I was house speaker to help America….. Newt’s entire life is about corruption, immorality, deception, bigotry…. Nothing more……

There is something very concerning going on with the GOP… Bush lowered the standards so much that today people actually believe that one’s past actions should be ‘overlooked’ …. Even the folks on Fox are pushing the lies…. A commentator psychiatrist states that “these traits would make him a good President”? Next they will have some religious figure supporting all is misdeeds…..

The only things more concerning is that Newt has a following ….. His mission of PSYOPS is working…..so what does that say about the ‘State of America’
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Miranda Wrietz
Yes, it is a mandate.
08:03 PM on 01/23/2012
Newt has disapproval numbers in the 60's. I don't think he has a chance. This campaign is NOT about the candidates, it is about the GOP electorate who cannot formulate an opinion or choice that lasts longer than a news cycle. This is the first time that 3 different candidates won the first 3 states. Never before done and it shows how fractured the gop electorate is. They are getting the extremist radicals they deserve. These candidates are running to the fringe and the national American electorate does not live on the fringes. Americans are going to reject the radical. FL, with it's three distinct electorates will show clearly how fractured the gop is. They will not win this way.
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jrmarsh
07:58 PM on 01/23/2012
Here is the guy who has a $500k revolving no-interest charge account at Tiffany's accusing others of being "elite".
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Brian Gilmer
Good citizens make good citizens.
08:12 PM on 01/23/2012
He has a home inside the DC beltway.
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marco01
03:36 AM on 01/24/2012
And RWers are falling for it.

They are currently engaged in twisting their minds to believe the unbelievable.
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googleshmoogle
Human,father,husband,American ,in that order
06:46 AM on 01/24/2012
They are very flexible in that manner.
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chuckgoodcat
retired / disabled
07:34 PM on 01/23/2012
Gingrich managed a primary win a S Carolina . One of Three . So what . His main opponent was a Mormon . In S. Carolina that equates to Orthodox Martian .
Romney can short circuit the Gingrich surge if he will come out swinging hard and tell the truth about Gingrich like his surogate Governor Christie did today calling GIngrich an embarassment to his party and laying out the facts .
Romney must shake off that Lord of the Manner attitude and get his hands bloody or he will never get any respect .
07:29 PM on 01/23/2012
Self important much, Newt? "Illeism is the act of referring to oneself in the third person instead of the more appropriate first person" -It can hint at narcissism. It raises some concern when anyone refers to them self in this way in conversation. I watched a recent interview with Mr. Gingrich where he uses this kind of reference to him self, more than once. Though is disappointing to witness this behavior in someone who is supposed to be accountable for genuine leadership, I'm grateful for the 'alert'.
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07:25 PM on 01/23/2012
Nothing says Unelectable like winning in South Carolina.
Zip Zinzel
If a Nation expects to be both Ignorant & Free . .
06:59 PM on 01/23/2012
WHY IS NEWT THE TEA-Zombies' newest favorite.

1) He is an angry man, just like they are
2) He is not constrained by the need to ever tell the truth, just like they are
3) Newt DOES HAVE a proven track record of actually getting Republican objectives accomplished, as opposed to the clownish claims of Mr. Santorum

SEE MY PREV POST=
GOP CANDIDATES & Honesty
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Zip_Zinzel/john-boehner-jobs-speech-obama-plan_n_964587_108109325.html
06:58 PM on 01/23/2012
So it's not about who would be the best President for the country, just who can beat Obama. Typical Republican attitude - sickening!
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dclintn648
Conservatism is dread
01:57 AM on 01/26/2012
It's about who can beat Obama... into a pulp. It's not enough to beat him - they want to humiliate him. Of course, it will backfire!