One year ago, as the Democratic Senate majority inched towards the number 60, Party leaders expected to add to their majority at the mid-term election. Since then the political winds have shifted. Now Dems will be lucky to retain control of the Senate.
On November 2nd, 36 Senate seats will be decided: each Party currently holds 18. At the present time, 14 Republican incumbents appear safe. However, four Republican Senators are retiring (Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, and Ohio) and their seats are in play.
In contrast, many Democratic seats are precarious. Eight Democratic incumbents appear safe. Unfortunately, five Dems are retiring and all their seats are on jeopardy (Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, and North Dakota). In addition, five Democratic incumbents are in unexpectedly tough races (Arkansas, California, Colorado, Nevada and Pennsylvania).
The Democratic Senate majority is currently 59 to 41, including two Independents who historically vote with Democrats. In the worst 2010 scenario, Republicans would retain the four competitive seats and Democrats would lose ten seats and become the Senate minority.
In Arkansas Senator Blanche Lincoln seems headed for defeat; she's unpopular with both her constituents and Democrats, in general. (MoveOn has launched a drive to get progressive Democratic Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter to oppose conservative Lincoln in the primary election.) California is headed for another expensive Senate contest where progressive Senator Barbara Boxer will oppose either Carly Fiorina, Tom Campbell, or archconservative Chuck Devore. In Colorado, Michael Benet - who was appointed after Ken Salazar became Interior Secretary - is headed for a tight contest with a still-to-be-determined Republican. In Connecticut, incumbent Democratic Senator Dodd's retirement solves a problem; Dodd was unlikely to win reelection but his likely replacement, Attorney General Richard Blumenthal should be favored. Delaware has a caretaker Senator, Ted Kaufman, who was appointed after Joe Biden became Vice-President; a very popular Republican Congressman, Mike Castle, is favored to win the Senate seat although Dems have a credible candidate in Chris Coons. In Illinois, Roland Burris is another caretaker Senator, who was appointed after Barack Obama's election. The toss-up election pits Democratic candidate Alex Giannoulias against Republican Congressman Mark Kirk. Indiana Democratic incumbent Evan Bayh's surprise decision to not seek reelection has made this contest closer than expected. However, the likely Democratic nominee, Congressman Brad Ellsworth, should run a strong race.
In Kentucky, incumbent Republican Jim Bunning is retiring and Democrats have fielded a strong candidate for Bunning's seat, Lieutenant Governor Dan Mongiardo. Missouri Republican Senator Kit Bond is also retiring; there the Democratic candidate is Robin Carnahan. In New Hampshire Republican Judd Gregg's retirement gives Democrats an opportunity to add another seat; the Democratic candidate is Paul Hodes. It's an indication of how unsettled voter sentiment is that in Nevada Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid, is in a tough race for reelection. In North Dakota, Democratic Senator Byron Dorgan's surprise decision to retire has left Democrats without a viable alternative to oppose Republican Governor John Hoeven. However Ohio Senator Voinovich's retirement gives Democrats an opportunity to pick up another seat; the Democratic candidate will be either Lee Fisher or Jennifer Brunner. Finally, one year ago, Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter switched parties feeling that he had no chance for reelection running as a Republican. Specter may not survive the Democratic primary where the progressive candidate is Congressman Joe Sestak; the winner will face archconservative Pat Toomey in the Fall.
These fourteen Senate races will be determined by the volatile mix of local politics, candidate appeal, and voter attitudes towards Democrats, in general, and Barack Obama, in particular. In some states, such as Missouri and Ohio, Obama is unpopular and, therefore, a generic Republican candidate starts with a lead over any Democrat.
Beyond tough economic times, Obama and Democrats have two problems. Many voters identify them with the bank bailouts and believe Dems favor Wall Street over Main Street. While the electorate may not blame the Obama Adminisration for causing The Great Recession, they fault Democrats for not doing enough to improve the economic circumstances for working families.
The second complaint - which resonates with Democrats, Republicans, and Independents - is that Obama promised change and hasn't delivered: in Washington it's still business as usual.
What this suggests is that Democrats have a tough but not impossible challenge between now and November 2nd. The elements of a winning strategy seem clear. First, Democrats have to field competitive candidates in each of the fourteen contested races. For the most part they've done that. Second, they have to reconstitute the GOTV apparatus that swept Obama into office; that will be David Plouffe's job.
Meanwhile, Democrats must take on the Wall Street robber barons that caused the economy to collapse. Dems have to be change their image and be seen as the champions of real financial reform and a new economy that works for everyone - not just the rich and powerful.
Finally, Dems have to get more done. That means passing additional measures to create jobs as well as healthcare reform and a meaningful energy bill. In the Fall Democrats have to run on a record of accomplishments.
If they do each of these four things, then Democrats might hold their own on November 2nd. They'll lose Senate seats but perhaps as few as three.
HuffPost TV: Arianna On 'Situation Room': Don't Bother To Pass Weak Financial Reform (VIDEO)
What I want to see from the Dems are candidates who actually care about America and not about how much they can steal for the corporations.
What makes you think they have control of it now?
The Republicans completely control the day-to-day narrative in the mainstream media. They define the terms of every debate, and the Dems fail utterly to stand for... well, anything. Meanwhile, Obama has been absolutely tone-deaf since day one.
There is a great deal of populist anger, and thanks largely to the Republican dominance of media, blame is aimed squarely at the government. Since the Dems control government, the populist anger is thus aimed at the Dems.
I wrote to every Democrat I could find in 2008 and BEGGED them to vote against the bank bailout. It was the political opportunity of our lifetime, and they blew it completely. Now that bailout belongs entirely to them, and all that populist anger that should rightly be aimed at the corporate titans who have bought the government - mostly with the help of Republicans, although certainly with plenty of Dems getting in on the game too - is directed at Obama, Reid, Pelosi, and the rest of the so-called socialists.
Republicans will absolutely, positively take control of the Senate in 2010. They'll have all three branches of government again following 2012's election. The Democrats are cooked.
And the Democrats STILL can't keep their majority, forget about expanding it.
I give up.
If the great health care reform debate showed us nothing else, it revealed without doubt that both parties are controlled by corporate interests.
"No man can serve two masters" no congressperson can serve both their electorate and their corporate sponsors. When they're in agreement on a given issue everyone's happy. When their interests conflict, guess who wins?
The good news is, when 1% of the population controls 99% of the economy, guess who gets to pay ALL the taxes?
The bad news is, it won't be any of US.
To me, adding the public option during reconciliation is the only hope for the Democrats to hold on to the Senate. That would re-invigorate the base, plus give the Dems something popular to talk about during their campaigns. If they push through HCR with no public option, there is no reason to believe that the Democrats will pass any other major legislation before the elections. The Republicans will derail all major Democratic initiatives. The Dems will be stuck defending their votes on an unpopular health care bill. Their supporters won't fight for them. They'll lose, and it will be their own fault.
"We Americans are fed-up with government"
"They can't get anything done"
"Apparently it takes a Super majority to pass anything"
"We'll make darn sure nobody has that."
It is insane and chilling that voters think putting Republicans back in office -- the same people whose policies almost destroyed the world economy; are perfectly satisfied with the current system; demand that it is their way or no way; reject the idea that government is capable of solving problems that in their mind are unsolvable and many won't even acknowledge the problems exist; support deregulation and block all legislation because electoral success at the expense of the country is far more important -- is a good idea; It isn't.
Because eliminating state rights to regulate insurance companies, deregulating financial institutions and banks, abolishing Social Security, privatizing Medicare, changing federal law so that ERs can turn away patients to cut costs would make things much, much worse.
Essentially easing people's suffering is of no concern; its not even on their radar screen. So by all means put Republicans back in charge. By the time they're finished voters will really be fed-up with government.
TOSS THE REST.
LGBTs aren't happy about how we were LIED TO by Obama and Democrats, and continually thrown under the bus, so don't expect us to fund candidates who did absolutely NOTHING on repeal of DADT, or DOMA or pass an inclusive ENDA.
If good bills are passed the Democrats will, probably, be able to organize the Senate.
How many? How many voters identify the Republicans with the bank bailouts? I'd wager MANY MORE than blame Democrats.
Yes, the Democrats are weak, but in our two party system, they are the lesser of two evils.
Vote Republicans in again?
H E L L NO!
Yes of course it matters; it matters a great deal.
Simply an observation...