Anything can happen at any moment, and I hate making predictions, but if all things remain normal -- no gaffes, no scandals, no major world events -- the only way Senator Clinton can lock this nomination is if she either, 1) negotiates behind the scenes for more superdelegates, or 2) doesn't quit and takes the fight to the convention. And that's all for me tonight. Good night, everyone.
Total delegate count according to MSNBC:
Both campaigns told Howard Fineman that Senator Clinton will not be able to win a majority of pledged delegates.
CNN's delegate count (including superdelegates):
(That's a crazy-tight split, considering Obama won 76% of the vote.)
Breaking news... The furrowing up Chris Matthews' leg means Wisconsin won't count.
4 percent reporting
Senator McCain didn't tell his tasteful Chelsea joke tonight. Olbermann: "The rule: always speak before Barack Obama. Never before." Chris Matthews wins the weirdo line of the night: "The feeling most people get when they hear Barack Obama speak... I feel this furrowing up my leg."
Senator McCain speaking in Virginia. Meanwhile, the margin in Maryland:
Senator Obama used the term "Bush-McCain Republicans". One of the frames against Senator McCain ought to be how he sold out his principals to the Bush White House. Even on the McCain Amendment, he negotiated with Dick Cheney on torture and allowed the president to invalidate the whole thing with a signing statement. "McCain sold out to the Bushies." Bush-McCain.
Senator Obama speaking in Madison, Wisconsin.
Rachel Maddow just made a great point about how the Clintons can get to Obama. They can paint him as a bunny rabbit about to be plowed over by the Republican slime machine.
MSNBC projects Senator Obama wins Maryland, but naturally it doesn't count because the state is shaped like a pistol.
The latest from the Commonwealth of Virginia:
Senator Clinton is speaking now. Will she enumerate her specific plans in various wonky policy areas? I hope she does otherwise we won't know where she stands in terms of her specific solutions. For instance, right now, she's talking about raising the minimum wage. Okay, so what's her plan for getting it done? Now she's talking about reducing our dependence on foreign oil, but how will she do that? Will she subsidize solar and wind, and if so, how will she assuage the anger of the ethanol lobby? Hmm. Not enough specifics. And I'm incapable of looking up such things on the intertubes.
Senator Clinton on stage in El Paso holding hands with Martin Short in his Three Amigos regalia.
On MSNBC (and quoting Stephen Colbert)... Clap-clap-clap. Point-point. Clap-clap-clap. Point-point.
This just in... Mike Henry's resignation means Maryland doesn't count.
Andrea Mitchell says Senator Clinton's Deputy Campaign Manager Mike Henry has resigned. And then Mitchell made an hilarious "White Men Can't Jump" joke. This is astonishing because Mitchell's husband, Alan Greenspan, can dunk like Jordan.
Following up on Todd's delegate math... The latest SUSA poll has Clinton leading Ohio, 56-39. If she can sustain that lead, she can get the delegates she needs in that state.
Chuck Todd's delegate math. I'll try to transcribe. If Obama nets 20 delegates in Virginia, Obama will lead in delegates 1077 to 975. That means Clinton would have to win 50-55 percent of the delegates to catch up in Wisconsin, Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
John McCain wins Virginia, according to CNN. Awesome! Now we can expect a jubilant McCain to regale us with more hilarious zingers tonight.
And now, the weather. I'm about 90 minutes north of the Mason-Dixon line and Maryland, and it's presently sleeting here. About three inches of accumulation, but my Hollywood Liberal Prius handled the slush and ice perfectly tonight. In other news, John McCain is leading Huckabee in Virginia now by around 3,000 votes. Stop counting Virginia! Stop!
Obama wins DC, but like Louisiana, Connecticut, Idaho, Nebraska, Kansas, Utah, etc -- it doesn't count. Sorry, DC.
Seriously, is anyone else worried about the extreme level of radiation flooding John King's body from that crazy-huge touch screen map?
Someone named "Major Garrett" is reporting on FOX News. He'll be tag-teaming coverage throughout the evening with FOX News correspondent Sergeant Slaughter.
The spread among the Republicans is only 200 votes with Huckabee leading according to CNN. As soon as McCain takes the lead, Virginia can stop counting.
How is it that CNN has 23 percent of precincts reporting for the Republicans, but 24 percent for the Democrats? Aren't all the precincts the same? Maybe John King can answer my question by writing it in magical blue finger ink.
CNN has the delegate split so far: Obama 18, Clinton 13. Not too awful for Senator Clinton who is presently losing 61-38 with 18 percent of precincts reporting.
The CNN Greatest Political Morning Zoo Of Primaries That Are Great Team are saying that Maryland polls will remain open for an extra 90 minutes due to traffic and inclement weather. If Senator Clinton loses the state, this will be why the state doesn't count.
Obama wins among voters under $50,000 according to MSNBC -- wait, aren't those Senator Clinton's voters? Delete the latest traditional media narrative about the Clinton campaign winning among working class voters.
Obama projected to win Virginia. According to CNN, he's leading 63-36. Olbermann says that Clinton only leads the white vote by 3 percentage points, and Obama leads among women. Meanwhile, Chucklebee is leading in Virginia by around 600 votes.