Liveblogging The Chesapeake Primary

10:57PM
Anything can happen at any moment, and I hate making predictions, but if all things remain normal -- no gaffes, no scandals, no major world events -- the only way Senator Clinton can lock this nomination is if she either, 1) negotiates behind the scenes for more superdelegates, or 2) doesn't quit and takes the fight to the convention. And that's all for me tonight. Good night, everyone.

10:51PM
Total delegate count according to MSNBC:
Obama 1078
Clinton 969
Both campaigns told Howard Fineman that Senator Clinton will not be able to win a majority of pledged delegates.

10:39PM
CNN's delegate count (including superdelegates):
Virginia
Obama 47
Clinton 28

Maryland
Obama 17
Clinton 15

DC
Obama 13
Clinton 10
(That's a crazy-tight split, considering Obama won 76% of the vote.)

10:24PM
Breaking news... The furrowing up Chris Matthews' leg means Wisconsin won't count.

10:19PM
Maryland:
Obama 68
Clinton 29
4 percent reporting

10:11PM
Senator McCain didn't tell his tasteful Chelsea joke tonight. Olbermann: "The rule: always speak before Barack Obama. Never before." Chris Matthews wins the weirdo line of the night: "The feeling most people get when they hear Barack Obama speak... I feel this furrowing up my leg."

10:06PM
Senator McCain speaking in Virginia. Meanwhile, the margin in Maryland:
Obama 61
Clinton 35
3% reporting

9:49PM
Senator Obama used the term "Bush-McCain Republicans". One of the frames against Senator McCain ought to be how he sold out his principals to the Bush White House. Even on the McCain Amendment, he negotiated with Dick Cheney on torture and allowed the president to invalidate the whole thing with a signing statement. "McCain sold out to the Bushies." Bush-McCain.

9:39PM
Senator Obama speaking in Madison, Wisconsin.

9:36PM
Rachel Maddow just made a great point about how the Clintons can get to Obama. They can paint him as a bunny rabbit about to be plowed over by the Republican slime machine.

9:30PM
MSNBC projects Senator Obama wins Maryland, but naturally it doesn't count because the state is shaped like a pistol.

9:26PM
The latest from the Commonwealth of Virginia:
Obama 63
Clinton 36
82% reporting

9:12PM
Senator Clinton is speaking now. Will she enumerate her specific plans in various wonky policy areas? I hope she does otherwise we won't know where she stands in terms of her specific solutions. For instance, right now, she's talking about raising the minimum wage. Okay, so what's her plan for getting it done? Now she's talking about reducing our dependence on foreign oil, but how will she do that? Will she subsidize solar and wind, and if so, how will she assuage the anger of the ethanol lobby? Hmm. Not enough specifics. And I'm incapable of looking up such things on the intertubes.

9:02PM
Senator Clinton on stage in El Paso holding hands with Martin Short in his Three Amigos regalia.

9PM
On MSNBC (and quoting Stephen Colbert)... Clap-clap-clap. Point-point. Clap-clap-clap. Point-point.

8:56PM
This just in... Mike Henry's resignation means Maryland doesn't count.

8:51PM
Andrea Mitchell says Senator Clinton's Deputy Campaign Manager Mike Henry has resigned. And then Mitchell made an hilarious "White Men Can't Jump" joke. This is astonishing because Mitchell's husband, Alan Greenspan, can dunk like Jordan.

8:42PM
Following up on Todd's delegate math... The latest SUSA poll has Clinton leading Ohio, 56-39. If she can sustain that lead, she can get the delegates she needs in that state.

8:40PM
Chuck Todd's delegate math. I'll try to transcribe. If Obama nets 20 delegates in Virginia, Obama will lead in delegates 1077 to 975. That means Clinton would have to win 50-55 percent of the delegates to catch up in Wisconsin, Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

8:31PM
John McCain wins Virginia, according to CNN. Awesome! Now we can expect a jubilant McCain to regale us with more hilarious zingers tonight.

8:24PM
And now, the weather. I'm about 90 minutes north of the Mason-Dixon line and Maryland, and it's presently sleeting here. About three inches of accumulation, but my Hollywood Liberal Prius handled the slush and ice perfectly tonight. In other news, John McCain is leading Huckabee in Virginia now by around 3,000 votes. Stop counting Virginia! Stop!

8:21PM
Obama wins DC, but like Louisiana, Connecticut, Idaho, Nebraska, Kansas, Utah, etc -- it doesn't count. Sorry, DC.

8:19PM
Seriously, is anyone else worried about the extreme level of radiation flooding John King's body from that crazy-huge touch screen map?

8:09PM
Someone named "Major Garrett" is reporting on FOX News. He'll be tag-teaming coverage throughout the evening with FOX News correspondent Sergeant Slaughter.

8:04PM
The spread among the Republicans is only 200 votes with Huckabee leading according to CNN. As soon as McCain takes the lead, Virginia can stop counting.

8PM
How is it that CNN has 23 percent of precincts reporting for the Republicans, but 24 percent for the Democrats? Aren't all the precincts the same? Maybe John King can answer my question by writing it in magical blue finger ink.

7:50PM
CNN has the delegate split so far: Obama 18, Clinton 13. Not too awful for Senator Clinton who is presently losing 61-38 with 18 percent of precincts reporting.

7:44PM
The CNN Greatest Political Morning Zoo Of Primaries That Are Great Team are saying that Maryland polls will remain open for an extra 90 minutes due to traffic and inclement weather. If Senator Clinton loses the state, this will be why the state doesn't count.

7:31PM
Obama wins among voters under $50,000 according to MSNBC -- wait, aren't those Senator Clinton's voters? Delete the latest traditional media narrative about the Clinton campaign winning among working class voters.

7:26PM
Obama projected to win Virginia. According to CNN, he's leading 63-36. Olbermann says that Clinton only leads the white vote by 3 percentage points, and Obama leads among women. Meanwhile, Chucklebee is leading in Virginia by around 600 votes.

Comments

[belladawna]

d'oh i had no idea that went thru like 4 times!!! haha y bad...
:-p

[belladawna]

you know what's funny is that all of "how she's going to get it done" is on her site and is explained perfectly crystal clear.
she can win not all the super delegates have voted or made public. i wish these media outlets would be a little less wonky obama-fied and more bipartisan eh? *chuckles*
i won't believe the counts until it's final and it ain't over yet baby!! :)

[belladawna]

you know what's funny is that all of "how she's going to get it done" is on her site and is explained perfectly crystal clear.
she can win not all the super delegates have voted or made public. i wish these media outlets would be a little less wonky obama-fied and more bipartisan eh? *chuckles*
i won't believe the counts until it's final and it ain't over yet baby!! :)

[belladawna]

you know what's funny is that all of "how she's going to get it done" is on her site and is explained perfectly crystal clear.
she can win not all the super delegates have voted or made public. i wish these media outlets would be a little less wonky obama-fied and more bipartisan eh? *chuckles*
i won't believe the counts until it's final and it ain't over yet baby!! :)

[belladawna]

you know what's funny is that all of "how she's going to get it done" is on her site and is explained perfectly crystal clear.
she can win not all the super delegates have voted or made public. i wish these media outlets would be a little less wonky obama-fied and more bipartisan eh? *chuckles*
i won't believe the counts until it's final and it ain't over yet baby!! :)

[user168]

If by age 60, Hillary has accumulated not hundreds, but hundreds of thousands "Hillary-haters", imagine how the number of "haters" will grow with her age. People do not change. Habits form. And so most things after the age 60 are predictable.

If by age 60, Hillary still can't solve her own "Hillary-haters" problem, how on earth is she going to solve any problem at any time, anywhere, and for anyone else?

If by age 60, Hillary's supporters are mainly the lesser-educated, the low income, and women (of such), then the problem appears to be that the wise, the capable, and the majority, even the youth, are not buying into what she thinks, says, and does.

What a pity.

[Tasies]

Hillary's new campaign slogan, "I AIN'T CHANGIN' SHIT."

[Orikinla]

I believe in Miracles.
Miracles still happen.

God can swing those who despise and hate you to turn around and love you.

Hillary Clinton sould forget about her campaign strategies, because they have failed.
She needs to go down on her knees and ask for divine intervention.

When everthing else fails, God can save the situation.

God bless Hillary Clinton for President.
God bless America.

[Gaia's Shadow]

Hmmm. Perhaps we will see a Clinton v. Huckabee showdown after all.

[mbinKS]

Cesca: Keep up the blogging! After all the talking/nay, blathering heads, it is JOY to read someone who understands irony & humor. Rachel Maddow should receive an Emmy just for tolerating Chris Mathews and Pat Buchanan, for Gawdsakes. She can hold them at bay more than most talking heads! Go Obama!!!

[YcCoSQ]

Clintons are staying in just to prevent Obama from beating McCain.

[Bondaroid]

What I am waiting for and have not heard either Obama or Clinton tells us what the have actually done, what their experience is, what legislation they authored. Instead you hear eloquent flowing speeches about change this, change that, from Obama, but nothing about what he did in Washington. We know what he is against but what is he for besides change, what is his experience. And Clinton mostly talks about what her husband did, not about what she accomplished, what hse had done for the American people. If you scratch the surface of both of them you find a very serious flaw, they have not accomplished anything of substance as a U.S. Senator. But Democrats do not go for substance when voting or look at the facts, their lives is ruled by emotion and that is what drives their votes not facts.

[ceu]

So...are you thinking you'll vote for a Republican instead? For a continuation of the policies that have done their best to destroy this country?

[FirstShirt]

The superdelegates will probably decide the nomination for the democrats along with the voters in michigan and Florida. If those state ballots don't count someone needs to completely gut the democratic party process because then the voters in two states will have been disenfranchised without due process and the next president of the United States may well be decided by unelected big shots in the democratic party.

[wrabbitt]

Who would be Hillarys Vice Pres? Bill? he's got a good grasp on the vise part. I'm sure she will dig up some imaginary mud to throw at Obama. When you corner a rat it attacks! If you want more people to vote give us a popular candidate to vote for. Washington insiders like Hillary just show us how crooked our system has become. Why does she want the job? she has already made more than she can spend off health care/drug lobbyists. More money to keep the Caymen Islands afloat?

[alan2a]

Your post is just another pitiful spin job for Obama. The core constituencies of these last 8 primaries(many of them caucuses) have all favored Obama. A large percentage of white male/female demographic in the Potomac primaries had according to exit polling data, amazingly, incomes in excess of 100k. Additionally many of these states had large African American populations that voted in excess of 90%(over 80% in super teusday) for Obama. Racist, any way you cut it, rationalize it, or spin it. But the upcoming primaries, the majority of which are not caucuses, favor Clinton. They're demographics are higher union, lower income, lower education, lower African American, higher Hispanic, etc. All of which reflects Clinton's core constituency. Prediction aside from Cesca's bull, is that the candidates will go into the convention basically deadlocked, but interestingly, Clinton will be well ahead with actual Democrats as opposed to "independents" and crossover Republicans. Given that this is supposed to be a Democratic nominating system, I'd suggest that if you substituted the name say of Lieberman, or Nelson, or(?) as the nominee nobody would be arguing they deserved the nomination for Democratic Presidential nominee.

[Rotcod]

And let me guess: You thought Joe Wilson's article was level-headed analysis, right? C'mon, everyone likes who they like. And articles/blogs favoring their candidate are liked and others disliked. Why does everyone have to overblow this?

[RichieTheK]

Putting aside the comical notion that Hillary is some kind of people's champion while Obama represents the affluent, should we take comfort in your assertion that Hillary appeals to the least educated voters? That looks like a red flag to me.

Finally, and I can't say this strongly enough - this is NOT a gender issue! It's not that I or so many others are opposed to nominating A woman, it's that we do not want THIS woman.

[Chanb]

I think the reason Hillary is fading is simply that people are sick, sick, sick, sick of George Bush, and she doesn't get it. She thinks she can continue the rhetorical fight, but where does she differ from Bush? Obama may be platitudes, but he is at least talking change. Hillary is George but with perhaps different backers, and Bill the economic opportunist in the background, [uranium salesman] doesn't help.

[RogerHWerner]

I think the more pertinent question is where/how Clinton differs from Obama. To Hell with Bush; he's rapidly becoming irrelevant. Obama says the right things and is very inspiring; consequently, he's viewed as a medium for change (whatever that means) in DC. In truth, however, his policies differ little from Clinton's even after considering their rhetoric for change. The main issue of this campaign boils down to personality: Which individual do Democrats want to represent them in November. I challenge anyone to provide evidence supporting the belief that these two candidates differ in any substantive way. From what I can see, the biggest difference between them is in health care: Clinton wants personal mandates while Obama prefers a voluntary universal system. I voted for Clinton because the notion of a voluntary universal health care system is ridiculous. Whatever...Obama is headed towards a delegate lockup and I shall be happy to vote for him in November. Further, I believe he'll make mincemeat of McCain.