Obama in Florida: Hooray for Substance!

Barack Obama went to Florida this weekend and gave me something real to write about.

It has been some time since I have posted to this blog. The campaign became to dully repetitive. How many times can we all make our same points in slightly different metaphors as the Democratic primaries grinds down? I have actually come to believe that, despite all the hoopla about its democratic potential, the Internet and the blogoshpere have become culprits in the oft-noted animosity of this campaign, as bloggers feel compelled to write their posts day in and day out while the campaign wakes up to yet another morning of grey haze and political drizzle.

And no, I am not going to write about HRC's incredible comment about the Robert Kennedy assassination, except to point out that even I, who consider myself jaded to the point that very little in electoral politics offends me, am astounded that after she was hit by the deluge of criticism her comment created, she apologized - to the Kennedys and not to Obama!

Enough of that. The real news is that Obama went to Florida and addressed the Cuban American National Foundation, where he announced that if elected would immediately lift the bans on family travel to Cuba and the limits on how much money people can send to their relatives in the communist nation.

The Cuban American National Foundation is the most prominent of the anti-Castro Cuban exile groups in Miami. This sector has had an extraordinary influence on US presidential politics, from the time of JFK right on down to the last two US presidential elections swinging on the vote in Florida.

For 40 years, American presidential candidates have done just what McCain did a couple of days ago. As Obama recapped in yesterday's speech, "I know what the easy thing is to do for American politicians. Every four years, they come down to Miami, they talk tough, they go back to Washington and nothing changes in Cuba. That's what John McCain did the other day. He joined the parade of politicians who make the same empty promises year after year, decade after decade."

Obama did something quite different. He took his politics of openness and engagement with the world to Florida and presented it to the bulwarks of the Cuban embargo.

This is, in my opinion, the actual substance in Obama's "new post-partisan politics." It is what is, in the end, most exciting about this candidate. Obama political experiences and his evidently acute political intuition has convinced him that there is some major movement waiting to happen among the American electorate, and that a candidate with the right appeal and, paradoxically, a limited record not tied too tightly to any well-established camp in the American political arena, might be able to capitalize on it. His high rankings in polls among young evangelicals is one indicator of this. His big wins in overwhelmingly white states in the north and northwest are another.

With the speech in Florida. Obama is signaling that he is for real about this. In fact, he is willing to bet his entire campaign on it. So he goes to Florida, to the heart of the Cuban American community, to the Cuban American National Foundation, where he is introduced by Jorge Mas Santos, son of the group's founder, who endorsed Obama's plan to lift restrictions on visiting relatives in Cuba and sending money.

Obama is betting on Mr. Mas Santos and his new generation of Cuban Americans who are fed up with the politics of their parents, just as he is appealing to the new generation of evangelicals who are fed up with the political alliances that community has made that resulted in 8 years of George Bush.

In this light, one can see that it is hardly surprising that the strongest predictor of which way a Democrat is likely to vote in this primary is age. Obama is betting the farm on the young generation. And he has a good chance of actually winning. How exciting and refreshing is that?

Comments

[ntmessage]

Excellent post and comments except for the aspect about Obamas influence in Florida. He is still very much unknown and because of the blogosphere point by point and tit for tat supporters still comes off as pandering. The inexperienced or black talking heads peppered throughout the media give more than pause in Florida. Not because of ageism or race, but because most of the Obama grey beard supporters are either amazingly lost in the 60s or are way too liberal for Floridians.

Richardson hoopla about how perfect that would be to attract Hispanics and Latinos, excited few intended and repulsed more unintended anywhere in the country.

Obama by design and necessity has been all about symbolism and slogans reinforced by inch deep rhetoric and media manipulated dirty tricks. Yes for a change, there is substance in Obamas comments to some Cubans. The blogosphere and talking heads will hype this miniscule pet treat into a game changing event, Further alienating those that think there is a difference between a slogan and real policy or substance.

Lastly, the material generational divide with Obama is actually around 35 and not the 40s-50s. Obama may be doing well with the 30 and under vote in Florida, but it is too bad that against McCain this puts him only a million votes behind based upon expected turnout.

[scamperdo]

Obama tapping into huge generational divide in country. And nowhere is the divide more obvious than in Florida.

Seniors 65+ are his toughest demographic, more resistant to change - let alone presented by a black man with funny sounding name. And senior Cuban-Americans are the most resistant to change of all (I know my Cuban parents live in Boca).

Meanwhile younger generation, in Florida and elsewhere are proving his strongest demographic, and he's demolishing McCain amongst the 18-30s. And younger Cuban-Americans are the MOST open to change, they see 50 years of failure and are more than ready to hear his message let's try a different approach.

In study after study 40 and under crowd more racially, religous, and sexually tolerant. We're winning the culture war already as the conservative base is aging and the young evangelicals, Cuban-Americans, all once stalwarts of the GOP, are hungry for change.

The true swing voters are not the white working class, nor the Independen­ts...

The true swing voters of 2008, are the demographic caught in the middle, 41-59 year olds... more open to change than seniors but still wary.

Who will hold more sway, grandparents or children? Makes for a fascinating election as I suspect will be huge cross-overs and impossible for pundits to predict (much like primaries!!!)

[BARRISTER]

Scampy:

Why do you say that Obama is a Black Man and, not say he is a White Man?? He is as White as he is Black.

So, I say Obama is a WHITE MAN!!!

[justobserve]

Maybe a brown man? But what does that matter? He got this far by who he is.

[Photofarm]

Sigh, it appears the 18-30 year olds didn't pay attention in history class. Looking at history, Obama's isn't about change, but backpeddling to Jimmy Carter's policies, especially foreign policy proposals. Jimmy Carter is without a doubt the worst President in the last 75 years for United States foreign policy.

[strifeknot]

Is maintaining the counter-productive embargo against Cuba, which Obama has just committed to doing, really substantial Change?

Obama: Infinitesimal Change We Can Half-Heartedly Believe In

[LongBeachDave]

Although I disagree with this postion...­I think the embargo should be lifted...O­bama's position is much more enlightened than that of any President or candidate from the past 50 years. Perhaps it would be political suicide to say "I'm for lifting the embargo" at this point...ge­t elected, then get it changed. Bill Clinton promised to end "no gays in the military" which got him the gay vote in 1992...the­n he retreated from that pledge when he realized what it would cost him in political capital. Then when he was in REAL trouble, he endorsed the ridiculous "Defense of Marriage Act." Better to promise a little, and deliver more later, than promise the entire change and get nothing.

[dontomas]

I think the 50 year embargo of an island 90 miles from the US will remain a black mark against the US and a human rights violation. Agree or disagree with Communism or Castro, the revolution would not have happened if US backed capitalists had not drained Cuba and created abject poverty and disease. The first wave of immigrants to the US were these same crooks who emptied the banks and used this money to create this control of Miami.

Cuba is ahead of the US in education and medicine and you will never find anyone sleeping on the sidewalks or panhandling on street corners. The shortage of consumer goods and limited ability to create an easier lifestyle are direct result of the embargo.

I hope this limited easing of the Cuba problem by Obama is just campaign pandering and that he will really do something more substantial in ending the embargo and our occupation of part of Cuba by having Guantanamo closed and lands ceded back to Cuba.

[Glacial]

Obama seems to be developing this disturbing strategy of treating the American public like they are adults. Very odd. I mean, a politician telling a critical swing group anything but exactly what they want to hear?

Madness.

[Gatling]

Agreed.

Why, it threatens the very industry that purports to uncover the truth behind political speech. If the truth is what was said, who needs 'em?

Outrageous. Think of the jobs!

[Glacial]

Especially in this time of rece-- I mean, um, economic rough patch! We need to save every job we can, not to say that any jobs have already been lost.

And if there were, it's because of the Democratic Congress.

Doesn't he know that truth is bad for the economy?

[RonNYC]

I saw Obama's speech at the Jewish temple in Boca Raton and he was very good there as well. Answered some important questions.

[DietrichMoody]

Excellent. You hit the nail on the head. Obama a gambler, but it is because of his "acute political intuition" as you say. But I also think that he also has that very very important "human intuition" too. He's so far willing to gamble, I only hope that Obama is not JUST betting on Mr. Mas Santos and his new generation of Cuban Americans but on the older ones too, who probably should be convinced to leave their "instincts" behind and go with Obama and his very very intuitive team.

[mredder4]

Castro's out of power, Florida voted months ago, and Obama is just now deciding to stop there? Boy, this guy is really behind on the times.

Even taking into account the nullification of Florida's primary, why is Obama's first stop to the state coming now? Since he didn't campaign there before the primary election, why couldn't he have done so during the 4 weeks he had before the PA primary? Or when he decided to skip WV and KY all together?

Why is Obama's pandering so constantly glossed over while Clinton's is headline news, perfect for scorn and ridicule?

[Mogamboguru]

And your point is... - besides innuendo?

[tasukibeth1]

He is in Florida *now* because back when Florida was voting, HE SIGNED AN AGREEMENT STATING THAT HE WOULD NOT CAMPAIGN THERE.

Idiot.

[Bramptonian]

Tasukibeth1, why don't you get ALL the facts? He did not campaign in Florida because Florida broke the rules and voted too early. They all thought the race would have been wrapped up by Super Tuesday and that's why Hillary and her campaign can't get over the shock of a 'little-heard-of, bi-racial senator' out-distancing her in this race and now about to take what she thought was entitled to her.

[mredder4]

So clarify, did he sign an agreement that he wouldn't campaign there at all, or just not before the primary? Because if you'd read what I wrote, you'd see that my question was about the timing of his campaigning there, not the actual campaigning. See, I'm not of the intelligence level that thinks typing in all caps in emphatic, which is usually part of the same class of people who reply to posts that they haven't even fully comprehended yet. I understand why he didn't campaign before the primary.

So again, I ask:
"Even taking into account the nullification of Florida's primary, why is Obama's first stop to the state coming now?"

He's had a huge 4 month gap between when Florida voted and now. Why is this his first stop, when there are states with actual valid primaries that he's skipping? His campaign has done nothing but fight every plan and every effort to get Florida involved in the convention somehow, because he knew it would favor Hillary Clinton. So if this isn't opportunism and pandering, what is it?

[sethyeah]

Castro is actually in power in Cuba now. Raul.

[Glacial]

Er, he didn't campaign there because he had signed a pledge not to campaign there. And telling anti-Castro groups that you're going to go chat with a Castro, and lift some of the economic sanctions meant to hobble the current regime, which is really NOT what they want to hear, is really not pandering.

Pandering would be telling the anti-Castro groups that you're going to crack down even harder on Cuba, like McCain did. What Obama's doing is disturbingly risky and smacks of, dare I say it, principle. In a politician, no less! I'm as weirded out as anyone.

[Gatling]

Because he's treating people like adults.

She's promising PR a say in the General Election (which requires a constitutional amendment).

See the difference?

[robiform]

The speech that Obama gave to the Cuban American National Foundation got wall-to-wall coverage here in South Florida. What cheered me greatly, and gave me hope that the Cuban American voters don't all march in lockstep with the local Congressional representatives (the Diaz-Balarts and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen), was the standing ovation Obama received when he vowed to lift the family travel ban to Cuba. This ban has been extremely unpopular and has worked about as well as the rest of the national foreign policy toward Cuba. Time for a change--in more ways than one!

[Liberoservative]

Thank you Bob!
I listened to that speech, as well and was very impressed with the detail in which he spoke. So much for people calling him an "empty suit". This man is for real and he has a clear vision of where this country needs to go in order to regain our standing in the world. I like that vision! I love his leadership style... I feel like I am part of the American Team again!
Thank you...
OBAMA 08

[Liberoservative]

Oh.. I forgot to put in what Bush's idea of Cuban foreign policy was this week.
Let's send them cell phones!!!
and somewhere he was also talking a about toasters..­.....

[ramblingjohnny]

Cell phones! lolll Hey you need cell phone towers for them to work dumbo!

[Fabienne]

Good comments here. Funny how nothing is heard from Senator Clinton's backers on this post. I presume this matter has too much substance for them. Doesn't give them much of an opening to scream about Obama supporters being filled with hate.

[pilgrim7]

Where do all those trolls come from anyway? Rush Limbaugh? I respect their right to feel the way they do, but their sole purpose is just to create havoc. I never visit anti-Obama sites or read anti-Obama posts because I'm just flat out not interested in their opinions. So what's with those people? Their lunatic rants are so childishly immature and silly.

[mesuki]

and they never make sense!...t­he things they post are full of hate or not backed up by facts.

[rwilliams1961]

Four years ago, Dean began by stating he would open up to Cuba. Then he faltered under pressure, I assume from the Florida Cuban community. Thankfully, Obama, too, is now calling for a new openness with Cuba. Speaking to the group that he did, it is unlikely he will recant as Dean did. We've been waiting for a candidate like this for a long time. Hopefully, he will approach most issues with this same honesty.

[jbatch]

I think you've missed something here. Your post implies Obam is "betting his candidacy" on a tactic. I believe Obama is a post-tactic candidate who believes he must lead the people to where they need to be, rahter than following the polls telling us where they are; who believes losing while speaking truth to power is better than winning by speaking poll-driven mush.

That's not a tactic. That's a belief; a value; a moral center. That's the stuff of statesmanship.

It's been hard for us to identify it as such, because we haven't seen it's like in 60 years.

[dawn2dusk]

a most excellent post, indeed!

[jian1312]

Can't agree with you more on that! This is what real leadership and statesmanship is, namely, not only listen to what the majority want, but also having the foresight, strength, and integrity to tell the truth even if the truth is unpopular or politically inconvenient. A true leader needs to be able to point out to his constituents not only what they want to hear, but also what might benefit them in the long-term despite short-term inconveniences and sacrifices.

We don't want a pure populist president who promises pie in the sky, then can't deliver (nobody can!). He needs to explain to this country what our biggest challenges are, how we can resolve those issues with well thought-over strategies, what the benefits and drawbacks are of his strategies; and he needs to tell this with honesty and integrity, not manipulation and fear mongering. I think it's becoming more and more clear which candidate is most willing and able to do that. Long overdue indeed!

[justobserve]

Exactly!

[Starbux4eva]

Ignoring Castro for 50 years did absolutely nothing. And McBushies want to continue this great policy.

Thats the whole McBush foregin policy, lets ignore them, and sabre rattle and they will go away.
No they won't.

[panchovilla]

Here's Fidel Castro's response to Obama's speech:

http://www.granma.cu/ingles/2008/mayo/lun26/Reflections-26may.html

[bluesnot]

This is what happens when contributions from big donors become less important. Candidates can address the issues instead of blindly kowtowing to the donors demands.