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Bob Samuels

Bob Samuels

Posted: May 26, 2010 01:08 PM

How the Bond Raters Took Over the World

What's Your Reaction:

With a single statement, a bond rating agency can determine the fate of an entire country and possibly the entire global economy. When Standard and Poor's downgraded Greece's bond status to "junk," one of the oldest civilizations in the world was sent to fiscal purgatory. Now as Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Ireland await their fiscal destiny, we have to ask, who are these bond raters and how did they get so much power?

Huge Profits for Bad Performances

Let us first recall that these bond raters, Moody's, Standard and Poor's, and Fitch, are the same agencies that gave piles of subprime mortgages the highest ratings even though these securitized mortgages were about to tank. Moreover, these public companies are paid by the same companies that they rate, and it appears that they receive very little oversight. The result of this system is that although they have often made huge mistakes in their predictions and analysis, they have been raking in record levels of profit. In the first quarter of 2010, Standard and Poor's brought in $451.5 million, up 15 percent from a year ago. Meanwhile, Moody's first-quarter profit was $113.4 million.

Rating Universities

Not only do these agencies rate countries and businesses, but they also rate universities, and a careful examination of their rating reports shows that their seemingly neutral analysis is often full of neoliberal beliefs. For instance, in Moody's latest rating of bonds for the University of California, the UC is warned that its financial status could be undermined by:" high susceptibility to regulatory and government pay or changes, coupled with unique stresses on California health care, including unionized labor." In other words, the raters reveal their distaste for state regulation, unionized labor, and employee benefits, like health care. Like the IMF, Moody's signals that if the university wants to continue to be able to borrow at low interest rates, it will have to accept the neoliberal strategy of fighting governmental regulation and resisting employee unionization.

Moody's has also informed the UC system that it should stop relying so much on the state and should move away from its traditional stress on accepting students from California: "In-state demand is so strong that UC does little recruiting of freshman from out-of-state. Moody's views this as an untapped strategic asset because UC could easily increase its student demand further if it followed national recruiting practices similar to most peer universities." Not only does Moody's think that the university should accept more out-of-state students, but it should spend more money on marketing and recruiting.

One reason why it is likely that the UC system, like so many other institutions, will follow advice of the bond raters is that the University of California has taken on so much debt that it is has become addicted to low interest rates: "debt outstanding has grown from $8.3 billion in FY2006 to over $13.2 billion in FY2009 and including new borrowings since the end of the fiscal year, a 56% increase." Since the university cannot stop its many construction projects, even as it cuts salaries, lays off faculty, and increases tuition 32%, all it can do is to continue to borrow more money, and in order to borrow at a low rate, it must please the bond raters.

It appears that no public or private institution can escape from the control of the bond raters. From small towns to large countries, everyone relies on borrowing so much money that they must march to the tune of the raters who always threaten to lower the ratings if the borrowers do not do things like shed jobs, decrease benefits, fight unionization, and resist governmental regulations. We can only hope that the U.S. Congress gets serious about its threat to rein in the raters.

 
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
MARYHOBE
At last! Finally!
03:06 PM on 06/02/2010
What the hey is a neo-liberal belief? And what does the political spectrum have to do with the current problems that we face in the financial services sector? We did bail them out and truth be told, they got off easy! But I am one of those optimists who believes the party is over. And the next years will be full of great new regulation that will handcuff the decision makers with caution and structure that mandates security and moderation. Like I said, I am an optimist! I realize that legislative interference in the economy is not one of the great American pass times but our G8 partners do not share our inhibition and pressure from them will force our hand. As to the qualification of the lenders' ideology as neo-liberal, I still don't get it, it seems to be neo-conservative to me, but what's in a word? Said Mr. Chomsky.
02:07 AM on 05/27/2010
The process was not 1. Greece Debt gets downgraded 2. Greek debt and economy collapse it was 1. Greece puts on far too much debt 2. As debt grows likelihood of bondholders being paid back falls, debt gets downgraded 3. Greek debt and economy collapses

The poor rating for the UC system is related to the fact that they have 1. state funding from a state with a large fiscal crisis (I doubt anyone can argue that) and 2. union employees are due higher pension payments and this is a form of "off-balance sheet debt" It's hidden debt because for a worker who is 45, the UC system doesn't need to make their pension payments, but once they retire they will receive these payments until they die.
11:43 AM on 05/27/2010
This was a manufactured crisis and the bond rating agencies serve to twist the knife in the victim. It's well-known that their encyclicals make it far more likely for the victims to not be able to pay. They lead a sort of collective blackballing of their victims and demand the usual policies that make repayment less likely in return for respite, though the essential result is enslavement as intended.
05:15 PM on 05/27/2010
Which part was manufactured? It is true that any bankruptcy is not a linear process and there is a tipping point involved because all confidence collapses at once, but Greece's debt problems were real problems. In the long run, hopefully this will be good for Greeks and they will realize the folly of their system of transfer payments from people who produce to those who only exist to skim the earnings of others.
01:50 AM on 05/27/2010
Like the IMF, Moody's signals that if the university wants to continue to be able to borrow at low interest rates, it will have to accept the neoliberal strategy of fighting governmental regulation and resisting employee unionization. Are "neoliberals" against regulation & unionization ?
11:41 AM on 05/27/2010
They certainly are, and have been pushing it on the world by hook and by crook for decades, led by the late Milton "do you want to subsidize the production of orphans and sick people?" Friedman.
12:11 PM on 05/30/2010
Well, I consider myself a "tech" ,i.e a pragmatist.(My opposite numbers are called Fuzzies"?) Your qustion is-probably deliberately vague.Still, if unionized/heavily regulated systems can deliver equal quality at teh same price, who cares?
Are you using UC as an example of a good system? Few others would.
10:18 PM on 05/26/2010
They have been compared to a church selling indulgences and to a mafia protection racket. As far as I'm concerned they must be destroyed.
ThatsTheTheWayItIs
religion, ideology, partisanship are delusional
06:19 PM on 05/26/2010
"who are these bond raters and how did they get so much power?"

They got so much power because we went into so much debt.
Public, private, all of it. That's what bonds are, debt.

The more debt we use, the more bonds issued, the more Wall St and the rich own us.
I don't know how to end debt, but debt is the problem, not bond raters.
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WorldisMorphing
Jaded Iconoclast ...
07:02 PM on 05/26/2010
And you probably know why it is the way it is....at this point in time.

But for any reader who hasn't stumbled upon it...this little explanation goes a long way I think.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2550156453790090544#

(for the critiques and whiners I have only one response: When was the last time this issue was discussed in depth in the mainstream media ? --...-- right. )
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WorldisMorphing
Jaded Iconoclast ...
05:58 PM on 05/26/2010
Let the Markets handle this !

" ... "
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
05:40 PM on 05/26/2010
The ratings agencies know fully well that they have debtors by the short hairs, and they wasted no time researching any truth. They understood that their words would be interpreted as laws; that their pronouncements carried more weight than any court.

It was, and it is, in other words, the perfect instrument of ... EXTORTION.

Meanwhile, when their cohorts wanted to float issues of known-to-be worthless bonds, the ratings agencies (for a price...) complied, knowing that people would interpret their pronouncements as Gospel even without checking the (utter and complete absence of) facts.

It was, and is, in other words, the perfect instrument of ... FRAUD.

But, even to this day, we don't hear "crime words" being used. We watch public officials throughout the system, from the highest to the low, rushing to the defense and protection of everything that was done.

It was, and it is, in other words, the perfect instrument of ... BRIBERY.
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WorldisMorphing
Jaded Iconoclast ...
06:05 PM on 05/26/2010
Frames the thing pretty sharply...faved
schatsie
banks are more dangerous than standing armies
11:29 PM on 05/26/2010
And good old Warren was holding 20% of the outstanding shares of Moody's and probably had the direct phone number to the CEO......
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Eagle Bill
05:16 PM on 05/26/2010
The whole system is hopelessly corrupt. Revolution is the only soluition. Power to the People!
ThePeacemakers
Concerned Citizen
04:35 PM on 05/26/2010
"...we have to ask, who are these bond raters and how did they get so much power?"

Disaster Capitalists.
They also need an a.k.a. "Government Raiders"
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FoonTheElder
Always choosing between the lesser of two evils
03:57 PM on 05/26/2010
American Big Business - Why is it any wonder that when America heavily rewards failure, incompetence and fraud we end up with more failure, incompetence and fraud.