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Dr. Bob NFL Best Bet

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I have three NFL Best Bets for Sunday after going 2-0 on my Saturday Best Bets with Arizona over Iowa and Stanford killing Wake Forest. One of my Best Bets is analyzed below and you can get all Best Bets each week at http://www.drbobsports.com/analysis.cfm

Make sure to check out my weekly free analysis and money management articles at drbobsports.com.
Each Thursday afternoon (after 3 pm Pacific this week) I post analysis of about 50 College and NFL games in the Free Analysis section of my website. I also have 3 NFL Best Bets this week that you can purchase if you'd like.

Philadelphia (-6 1/2) 24 DETROIT 10
They'll be two new starting quarterbacks in this game, as Michael Vick takes over the Eagles for concussed starter Kevin Kolb while Shaun Hill takes the reigns of the Lions from an injured Matthew Stafford. Vick is not as good of a passer as Kolb (Vick has averaged just 5.4 yards per pass play in his career), but his running almost makes up for the less efficient passing. Vick has averaged 7.2 yards per run over his career (much higher if you take out kneel downs) and he ran for 103 yards on 11 scrambles last week (and averaged a decent 6.0 yards per pass play) while nearly bringing the Eagles back from a huge deficit in their 20-27 loss to the Packers. Vick should have good success throwing the ball against the perennially bad Lions' secondary that was torched for 362 yards at 9.3 yppp last week by Chicago. Don't be fooled by the 19-14 final score of that game, as the Lions allowed 464 yards at 6.7 yards per play and were only close because of 3 Bears fumbles and a pick. Detroit's offense was horrible last week, running for just 20 yards on 21 rushes and totaling just 168 yards at 3.0 yppl. Shaun Hill didn't play well off the bench last week (just 9 for 19 passing and 4.0 yppp), but I think he's actually an upgrade over Stafford, who throws way too many interceptions (20 in 11 career games). Hill's 5.5 yppp career average is better than Stafford's 5.2 yppp career average and Hill has a very good 2.2% interception rate. The Lions should be a better team with Hill not making the mistakes that Stafford would likely make. Detroit's offense is still bad, however, and Philadelphia has a good defensive unit that held a very good Packers' attack to just 302 yards at 4.8 yppl in last week's loss. My ratings favor Philly by 9 ½ points in this game and the Eagles apply to a very good 20-2 ATS week 2 bounce-back situation as well as an 80-38-2 ATS week 2 statistical indicator. Detroit is just 3-38 straight up in their last 41 games and only 5-20-1 ATS when not getting more than 10 points, so I don't mind taking the Eagles in a good situation against a bad team - especially given that fact the Philly is 47-22-1 ATS since 2000 when not favored by more than 9 points against a team coming off a loss (19-5-1 ATS if the Eagles are also coming off a loss). I'll take Philadelphia in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 ½ points or less and for 2-Stars at -7 points.

I have free analysis of 13 NFL games and 47 College games this weekend in the Free Analysis section of my website.

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