Russia's invasion of Georgia may well prove the most important, potentially decisive, development of the 2008 Presidential campaign. It could give the GOP the one thing it needs to win: a big fear issue.
Ever since the fall of the Soviet Union, the neocon right has groped for a central theme that could unite the country around it. The Soviet menace had been its unifying force for decades, an effective theme that it used to overshadow any impulse that American working people might feel toward Democratic domestic initiatives. President Bush's elevation of Al-Qaeda into a comparable global foe -- notwithstanding the fact that it gave Bin Laden exactly the status he wished for -- was effective in the short run in the wake of 9/11, but even observers on the right had begun to question the wisdom of giving Islamicists the international prestige that the "War on Terror" conferred upon them. The public has tired of Iraq, and it has become clear that Iran can not fulfill the central threat role that the USSR once played. Vladimir Putin has now presented the opportunity that the GOP strategists needed: a real external threat of global proportions.
John McCain, with Georgian lobbyists on his staff, has been quick to capitalize on the development, with a stream of bellicose talk aimed at Russia's imperialistic moves. The neocon choruses have begun to sing the expected chants. Bill Kristol has raised the specter of Hitler on the move, and radiocon Dennis Prager this morning called Georgia "another Sudentenland." Intentionally or not, President Bush has allowed the adventurist administration in Georgia to present Putin with the opportunity he has long been chaffing for: a way to allow Russia to flex its muscles and make the West appear impotent. The Georgian military move into South Ossetia was nothing short of reckless, and the Bush airlift of Georgian troops from Iraq played perfectly into Putin's hand. Coming in the wake of the new U.S. missile encirclement and the secession of Kosovo from slavic Serbia, the Georgian invasion gave Putin the chance he needed to play Russian national avenger to his own domestic audience.
The Obama campaign has been slow to respond, perhaps recognizing the potential danger this issue poses, and hoping that the situation will diffuse itself quickly. But I doubt that Senator McCain will let this issue drop, nor will his GOP allies. President Bush has already scheduled a news conference for later today, and we will undoubtedly hear tough talk (and little else). But the "October surprise" may have arrived early, with the growing Russian menace exactly the issue that the GOP's military hero candidate needs to convince the country that this is not the time to let pressing domestic concerns override national security issues.