Sarah Palin's image problems have gotten even worse. A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll conducted January 14-16 (immediately after the controversy over her ham-handed response to the shootings in Arizona) finds that perceptions of Palin have declined significantly since October:
A new national poll indicates that 56 percent of all Americans have an unfavorable view of Sarah Palin, an all-time high for the former Alaska governor. That 56 percent unfavorable figure is up seven points from just before the midterm elections, according to a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released Wednesday morning.
Thirty-eight percent of people questioned in the poll say they have a favorable view of the 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee, down two points from October.
...According to the survey, Palin's unfavorable rating is up 10 points among women, compared to just three points among men, and among independent voters, her unfavorable rating has grown a whopping 14 points.
A new USA Today/Gallup poll conducted during the same three-day period recorded nearly identical results (38% favorable, 53% unfavorable), though the estimated decline since the previous Gallup poll (November) was less dramatic.
If Palin is indeed considering running for president, it's worth noting just how unsuccessful she's been at building the necessary public profile. Since last year, I have been tracking her poll numbers relative to the most obvious comparison -- Hillary Clinton, another polarizing female politician. Clinton could never fully shed the high unfavorable ratings she acquired during her husband's presidency, but she worked hard to improve her image and maintained higher favorable ratings during the period before the Democratic primary campaign began in 2007. By contrast, Palin's ratings have been consistently worse during the comparable 2008-2011 period, and the gap between her and Hillary has widened dramatically in recent months (data from Gallup):
In this sense, Sarah Palin is more like Dan Quayle, a former vice president who never recovered from his image problems, than Hillary Clinton, who came within a few primary votes of being the Democratic nominee in a favorable electoral environment. Back in September, I argued that the the Intrade contract for a Palin run, which was then trading at 69%, was too high. It's now at 60%, but that still looks overpriced to me.
Update 1/20 6:59 AM: Andrew Sullivan points out that Palin's numbers among Republican are still competitive with other well-known presidential contenders:
Her unfavorables are indeed impressive. They just reached a new high in CNN's poll of 56 percent. But what I'd note as well is that her favorables remain at 38 percent, which is obviously concentrated in the GOP base. The poll of polls puts it at 35 percent - again roughly the core GOP vote. Huckabee is more popular as a person among Republicans, according to Gallup, but when you combine star power and favorability in the GOP, Palin is very much in the running:
Update 1/20 9:42 PM: Similarly, the new CBS/New York Times poll conducted January 15-19 puts Palin's ratings at 19% favorable/57% unfavorable, which is down from 22% favorable/48% unfavorable in early October.
[Cross-posted to brendan-nyhan.com]
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Oh I soooo hope she runs.
She is of course the worse possible choice for POUS, anyone with an ounce of common sense knows this. She is put out front "until" the Republican party (behind the scenes) decides who they are going to run with a fair chance of a possible win.
Then, they hope that those who would have voted for Palin (tea partiers) will vote for the GOP choice.
Doing so will turn out Ds in numbers you have never seen before all over this country during the general. We will win back the House, maintain a majority in the Senate & win State races all around the country in places that weren't possible before.
Run 1/2 governor Palin ruuuun.
She is just another Ann Coulter or Michelle Malkin now. She will remain popular on the rightwing circuit, and she will make a decent living at it. She is now the Michael Moore of the right. Now she is no Michael Moore - not nearly as smart or as ethical, but Republicans don't value those characteristics.
This wasn't a possibility last time around because people wanted a say in their own primaries - Barack or Hillary. But, Obama is not going to have any challenger from the left who could get even a pittance of the vote.
Get the Ds out in the primaries & then they will pour out in droves in the general & we'll retake the House, maintain the Senate and the WH - and Obama will win in about 42 to 45 States.
(Please.)