When it comes to the American Jewish community and Israel, hysteria seems to be the requisite emotion underlying and conditioning policy ideas and commentary, at the expense of more reasoned and careful thinking.
Take, for example, Politico's story on the decline in support for Barack Obama among Jewish Democrats. Many seasoned Jewish analysts don't think much of the argument. They note that most Jews don't vote on single concerns, including Israel, and that they are more liberal on social issues anyway, in sharp contrast to the Republicans.
And the story, including the anecdotal evidence that seems to support it, needs to be put into its proper context. As I've argued, Obama hasn't done anything to disrupt relations with Israel. The tiff between him and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is certainly not the worst in the relationship between the two countries: anybody remember the loan guarantees dispute between George H.W. Bush and Yitzhak Shamir?
Somewhat surprisingly, nobody seems to have pointed to the Canadian case as potentially being replicated here. After all, there are many similarities between the two Jewish communities, including shared community institutions. Not to mention the regular personal, institutional, and geographic links tying Canadian and American tourists, businesspeople, artists, and others.
In Canada, voting patterns among the Jewish community do appear to have shifted right, away from the Liberal Party (where they have long been anchored) and toward the Conservative Party (the Canadian equivalents of the Democrats and Republicans, respectively). Data indicates that more Canadian Jews voted for the Conservatives in the May national elections than ever before, including in "safe" districts with a high concentration of Jews and where the Liberals had long been able to count on Jewish support but which they lost in May.
And similar to Republican strategy, in Canada Conservative leader Stephen Harper and his party have made very explicit efforts to reach out to different ethnic groups to pry them away from the Liberal Party, where minority voters tend to go.
At the same time, Harper has taken a very "moral" and "principled" stance on Israel. By that I mean he genuinely believes that the right thing to do is to support Israel no matter what -- as a fellow democracy against authoritarian and terrorist states and groups. In international affairs Harper has defended Israel even when Canada's close allies, including the U.S., did not: In the 2006 Lebanon War and the 2008-2009 Gaza campaign he blamed Hezbollah and Hamas for the violence. At the recent G8 meeting in France, Harper alone prevented the leaders from issuing a statement on the peace process that referenced the 1967 borders and land swaps as the basis for negotiations, which Obama was pushing for.
All this has taken place during a period when the Liberal Party under leader Michael Ignatieff --seemingly like the Democrats under Obama -- appeared to be at best equivocal in its support for Israel, at worst hostile toward it.
We can apply lessons learned from the Canadian example to United States, by looking more closely at the key differences between the two communities. First, the Canadian Jewish community is founded on a more conservative and traditional outlook; Reform Judaism, for example, is not nearly as strong in Canada as in the U.S..
Second, the Canadian Jewish community has historically been much more Zionist -- in terms of emotional attachments, financial contributions, and political support -- than has the American one.
Third, the current slate of Republican candidates is unlikely to appeal to most American Jews, who tend to be very liberal on social issues. Tea Party, evangelical, or small government Republican candidates have little in common with most Jewish voters. Indeed, the current crop is trumpeting policy ideas that are anathema, if not downright scary, to many Jewish voters.
Probably a few Jewish votes will shift from the Democrats because of Israel. Obama has already been saddled with a perception as "anti-Israel" or at least as more "pro-Palestinian." But these differences indicate that the American Jewish community, despite some dissatisfaction with Obama and his foreign policy, won't move right. There are too many other structural forces at play.
This is why we need to think more cautiously about the Jewish community and Israel, instead of making overly-broad statements with shallow explanations. We cannot assign too much causal significance to this one brief period in American-Israeli relations.
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God's program for the Jewish people has not been cancelled unless God is a liar, which He is not. God gave the Jewish people 4 covenants, unconditional promises that will be fulfilled in the future, and in fact, forever. Genesis 15 is the Abrahamic Covenant that says there will always be a Jewish nation with a piece of real estate in the Middle East according to the Land Covenant in Deuteronomy 30. The Davidic Covenant in II Samuel 7 and the New Covenant, Jeremiah 31, states that the Messiah Jesus Christ will give the Jewish people the city of Jerusalem and a temple in the city for their kingdom which is eternal.
http://www.tabletmag.com/news-and-politics/72234/sitting-duck/?utm_source=Tablet+Magazine+List&utm_campaign=013eee46ec-7_14_2011&utm_medium=email
Noam Chomsky, Finklestein, Amy Goodman, Howard Zinn, ect.
None of them are democrats though.
It has nothing to do with supposed hostility towards Israel from the Liberal Party. Absolutely nothing.
"They note that most Jews don't vote on single concerns, including Israel, and that they are more liberal on social issues anyway, in sharp contrast to the Republicans. "
was true when Jews believed the bond between them and The Democratic Party regarding Israel was permanent. Now they see the threat to Israel comes from the Left and although the Congress is still a friend, it appears that President Obama may see things differently and his track record so far regarding foreign policy is naive to say the least.
Jews don't want to see Israel done in because of a naive young President who believed his idealism would win out over the realpolitik of the region. As long as the Republicans don't nominate someone the Jewish community sees as being a liability for America, and someone who is not severe in regard to social issues ie Gay rights, women's right to chose and otherwise, Jews will vote for the Republican
http://www.gallup.com/poll/148373/Solid-Majority-Jewish-Americans-Approve-Obama.aspx?version=print
My sense is Obama could lose enough in Florida to possibly lose the State. And if things go really bad in September at the UN with the Palestinian bid for Statehood which will require a US veto - putting Obama squarely in conflict with the Democrat base and he wavers at all - he may put NY and NJ in play.
It just takes a few percentage points.
...as pretty as 60% approval now down from 83% 2 years ago
Do they vote primarily for democrats and have voted that way for decades?
I rest my case
as much as you give in too quickly to the pro-Arab lobby
Simply put, to many American Jews, Liberalism is more so their religion than Judaism is. I think this follows the overall American populations association with a party rather than the party's platform.
For Canadian Jews, and Canadians in general political affiliation is much less set in stone. Canadians vote much less based on a dedication to a particular political party than their American neighbors.
While that is true, I think the point is that when push comes to shove, if forced to a choice, many American Jews would opt for Liberalism over Judaism.