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Brian Schaffner

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Does Elizabeth Warren Have a Wealthy Woman Problem?

Posted: 10/11/2012 1:00 pm

When Elizabeth Warren entered the Massachusetts Senate race last year, it was widely anticipated that her candidacy would be particularly popular with women in the state. While Democrats consistently benefit from large gender gaps in statewide races (Deval Patrick won re-election in 2010 largely because of a 20-plus point advantage among women), many expected Warren's candidacy to generate an even larger gender gap.

The UMass Poll released a survey of Massachusetts registered and likely voters on Tuesday (full disclosure: I am serving as Director of the UMass Poll). The survey focused extensively on the Senate race between Senator Scott Brown and Warren. One of the topline findings was that Warren holds a 9 point advantage among women -- 51 percent of women plan on voting for Warren compared to just 42% who plan on voting for Brown. But how large is that advantage compared to other recent elections in Massachusetts? As noted above, in 2010, a UMass exit poll found that Democratic Governor Deval Patrick won the support of 57 percent of women, and just 34 percent of women voted for Charlie Baker, his Republican Challenger. Given that context, Warren's advantage among women seems remarkably small.

When we drilled down into the data a bit more, what we found is that the preferences of women in this race vary widely depending on their income. The chart below demonstrates this pattern by plotting Warren's advantage/disadvantage over Brown for men and women in low (under $40,000), middle ($40,000 to $100,000), and upper ($100,000 and above) income groups. Warren holds an impressive 32 point advantage over Brown among low income women and an 11 point advantage among middle-income women. However, Warren is losing upper income women by 19 points, a larger margin than her deficit among upper income men.

2012-10-10-warrengap.png

Is Warren's performance among upper income women unique to her candidacy? There appears to be some evidence that it is. The plot below shows Obama's advantage over Romney in Massachusetts for different gender and income groups. Notably, Warren performs about the same as Obama among low income women, but she performs much worse than him among upper income women.

2012-10-10-obamagap.png
Ultimately, nearly one-in-four women with a family income above $100,000 plans on voting for Obama but not for Warren. When asked, these wealthy women overwhelmingly agreed that Warren was the candidate who is most likely to represent the interests of women; however, they view Scott Brown as the more trusted choice for economic and tax issues. Thus, for now, it appears as though economic concerns, and not gender concerns, are driving these wealth women away from Warren.

NOTE: Credit to Maryann Barakso for discovering the patterns discussed in this post.

 
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When Elizabeth Warren entered the Massachusetts Senate race last year, it was widely anticipated that her candidacy would be particularly popular with women in the state. While Democrats consistently ...
When Elizabeth Warren entered the Massachusetts Senate race last year, it was widely anticipated that her candidacy would be particularly popular with women in the state. While Democrats consistently ...
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Robert Fanney
Scribbler
11:16 AM on 10/16/2012
It doesn't really surprise me. Hate to say it, but right wing women tend to be even more extreme than men, once they latch onto that meme. It's a tragedy, really.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
P Fra
12:17 PM on 10/14/2012
Scott Brown gives the waekest possible reasoning for voting against the Jobs bills- it would raise taxes on the uppe 3% of taxpayers- the Job creators- (where have the jobs been for the last 10 years)that is a Frank Lutz talking point- these jobs bills would have put over 17000 Mass residents to work- he holds out -toes the Republican Line- Scott Brown signed the No Tax Pledge of Grover Norquist-he is keepin it- if SCOTT BROWN CAN NOT STAND UP TO GROVER NORQUIST -HOW CAN HE STAND UP FOR THE PEOPLE OF MASS? The choice is clear Vote for WARREN in the Mass Senate election
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Robert Fanney
Scribbler
11:16 AM on 10/16/2012
No more tax cuts for the job cremators.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
SmileAndActNice
Utilitarianism, the -ism that works.
04:20 AM on 10/14/2012
Gender concerns ARE ECONOMIC CONCERNS.

Read this a few times if you need to.

Wealthy women are not personally threatened by attacks on reproductive freedom because they are laughably easy for us and our daughters to evade.

Furthermore, many of these wealthy women are wealthy house wives. They *** benefit from unequal pay because it means their spouses are paid more for doing the same work ***.

And this puts another layer of protection on the pregnancy front because if they do have a surprise there it is just an added expense, not an added expense PLUS a huge loss of income like it is for women who work for a living.

Nor do they have any worry about the associated medical expenses because they have good insurance that will cover it.

Look at all that stuff I just talked about. Money. Money. Money.

What part of that wasn't an economic issue? None. And every bit of it is a gender issue.

It is quite possible for a rich woman to support the GOP.

It is the moral and ethical equivalent of selling our poor sisters into slavery as we seek to barter their basic rights away for tax breaks. But it makes sense from a totally self centered point of view.
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jbh2009
02:32 PM on 10/12/2012
She will not comprimise - do not vote for her
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CePe
A moderate too liberal for Texas
02:08 PM on 10/13/2012
She won't compromise? Unlike TPer Scott Brown? Get real, jbh.
06:50 PM on 10/14/2012
She will not compromise our interests to wall St. The fraud Brown is no friend to the working class with his pickup truck and awful 80% against labor voting record.
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jbh2009
10:08 AM on 10/15/2012
most people now want both sides to work together - she will not
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jbh2009
10:09 AM on 10/15/2012
Stock Market is the only thing doing well in the Obama economy.
11:09 AM on 10/12/2012
She's losing among rich women more than she losing among rich men.

Hmmm....I guess that means that rich men--contrary to accepted wisdom--are more liberal and less anti-working-class than rich women. I suppose we should quit attacking the GOP as the nasty party of "mean, rich white men" and call it henceforth as the party of "mean, rich white women."
06:20 PM on 10/11/2012
As a registered Democrat living in Massachusetts, I will be voting for Scott Brown. After watching the three debates, I have come to the conclusion that Elizabeth Warren will vote solely with her party, no bipartisanship. This is not what we need. I also have a very hard time believing anything she says.
07:53 PM on 10/12/2012
If Scott Brown was really a "bi-partisan" then he would work to keep Mitch McConnell from turning our Congress into a Parliament. In 30 of the first 32 votes that there a majority had 50 votes necessary to pass legislation, he went along with Uncle Mitch and joined the Obama haters and filibustered. Based on Ezra Klein's research, Scott Brown in a two year carear has filibustered more than any Senator in Mass history. If you're a rightie and want your Senator to more beholding to Grover Norquist (Scott took the pledge) then the people of Massachusetts then he's your guy .but his malarkey about what a great "bi-partisan" he is and his lying about his role in legislation, like when he claimed in his last debate that he was the "crucial vote" on legislation when the bill passed by twenty votes is hard to take., After being McConnell's poodle for two years. he says "I am going to have to seriously think if I would support him" What a wicked phoney.
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Wurkenstiff
Accept me for who I am and it won't be empty!
02:20 PM on 10/11/2012
"Deval Patrick won re-election in 2010 largely because of a 20-plus point advantage among women"

HA! Hilarious.
Deval Patrick WON because 8% of the "anti-Patrick" vote went to life-long Democrat Tim Cahill entered the race as a "conservative Independent" while another 8% went to write-ins and 1.42% went to the Green Party.

While these might not sound like they make the statistical difference it made a HUGE difference when all the debates featured D-Patrick, R-Charlie Baker AND political straws 1 and 2.
Tough to discern major policies differences when there are 2 nobodies on stage pining for attention.

It was a circus act of an election designed to confuse voters and boost an Obama surrogate.
Dems were still unable to fend off Brown even as the Boston Globe reported him trailing Coakley by 17 points the week before the election.
01:52 PM on 10/11/2012
Massachusetts is a deeply classist and racially divided place. Everyone grows up in their own little stratified bubble, with no knowledge of anyone outside it.

Indeed, the motto of the state should be 'know your place and stay there.' Warren violates that rule by coming from humble origins and ending up a Harvard prof.

While, for most of us, that puts her on the same side of the street as the rich; to those who think they own the world, its disturbing. She should be bagging their groceries, cleaning their home or helping them with their purchases, not talking to them as an equal. (my gosh, what's the world coming to?) Her existence in their world as an equal functions as a contradiction to their notion or normal. Consequently, that triggers an almost unconcsious abject horror from the privileged and they spend all their time trying to normalize the 'upstart' back into their 'place'.

And it doesn't matter how high you go in MA. If you were born on the wrong tracks, they have to put you down. And the 'liberals' are as bad as the conservatives, when it comes to that behavior. Apparently, not even a Harvard pedigree will spare you the wrath of the overprivileged..............

Not surprised. Rattle your jewelry, girls, if you disagree.................
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Fushek
03:30 PM on 10/16/2012
Yeah, gotta keep those Native Americans down ...

Oh ... no ... wait a minute ...
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01:48 PM on 10/11/2012
Not being the servant of the plutocracy has its price.
01:31 PM on 10/11/2012
No she has a lying woman problem. Her wealth doesnt matter.