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Bruce Ackerman

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Elect-Your-Match: Computer-Dating Hits the Presidential Election!

Posted: 05/03/2012 8:25 am

Co-authored by Danieli Evans

Millions of Americans use on-line dating sites to search for their perfect mate: Are you a hiker or a homebody? A sports fanatic or a poetry fiend?

After telling the dating service who you're looking for and what you're like, its computer matching program searches its data base -- and presto, out comes a list of prospects whose responses best match yours.

Let voters do the same thing as they search for the right presidential candidate. Here's how Elect-Your-Match! works. Obama and Romney each pick their five priority issues and write up policy statements on each choice. There is only one proviso: neither can mention his name or political party or that of his opponent.

This means that voters clicking onto Elect-Your-Match! confront the issue-statements behind a "veil of ignorance." They don't know who is supporting what. They then check a box to indicate whether they strongly/moderately/slightly agree or disagree with each of the ten policy-statements -- or whether they are neutral on the issue. With the last check-off, a drum-roll announces the voter's "best match" candidate, and how he compares with his rival.

Everything depends on the integrity of the "matching algorithm." Ours is straightforward: If a citizen "strongly" supports a candidate on a particular issue, we award seven points. We then subtract one-point for each step that the voter distances himself in issue space -- with "moderately support" earning six points and "strongly oppose," only one. So the voter's final tally for Obama and Romney will range from 7 to 35 points.

We also help voters fine-tune their judgment. If they think that one or two issues are a lot more, or a lot less, important than the rest, Elect-Your-Match! will make it easy to weight these issues accordingly and allow voters to see whether their presidential choice changes. If they want to learn more, they can access a series of more elaborate back-up statements, and play the dating game again.

Most people will call it quits quite quickly. Nevertheless, a few minutes of engagement will reap big rewards. Candidates increasingly fine-tune their campaigns to target very different sound-bites to ever-narrower audiences. Elect-Your-Match! pushes in the opposite direction -- forcing them to frame the same message on a few central issues.

Both campaigns will certainly try to game the system, focus-grouping alternative formulations to win the highest scores from swing groups. But they will operate under important constraints. Candidates can't be too vapid without alienating their base. They can't settle for misleading sound-bites without generating blistering media criticism. They can't drone on for pages without inducing mass boredom and a wave of hostile ratings. They have an incentive to highlight salient positions in a pointed paragraph or two.

This will vastly clarify voters' understanding of the stakes involved. Americans are notoriously poor at matching positions to candidates. In 2008, a Pew study found that 38% of American voters couldn't say whether Obama or McCain were pro-life or pro-choice, and those with opinions were often mistaken: 45% said McCain was pro-life, but 17% incorrectly identified him as pro-choice. This suggests that a third of the "correct" answers were only guesses.

A few minutes on Elect-Your-Match! will generate lots of second-thoughts and reappraisals. It will also provoke a host of conversations on Facebook and real-life, as friends compare reactions to their sometimes-surprising discoveries. The escalating talk will generate a virtuous cycle -- with more and more people linking into Elect-Your-Match!, sometimes returning to dig deeper.

It would cost less than $200,000 to set up the system, and less than $100,000 to maintain it. If Obama and Romney gave the go-ahead, Elect-Your-Match! could become operational well before the Fall.

Both campaigns may prove responsive. With their super PACs bombarding each other with negative ads, Obama and Romney have a powerful incentive to take the high road in the campaigns for which they take personal responsibility. Elect-Your-Match! provides them with this opportunity. Are they willing to give it a try?


How Elect-Your-Match! Is Different

There are at least three sites on the Web that currently provide voters with information on candidate positions: http://www.votesmart.org/voteeasy/, http://electnext.com/ and http://www.isidewith.com/. We urge you to give them a look, beginning with the first on the list, which is sponsored by the Carter Center.

Elect-Your-Match! differs from all three sites in three key respects: First, the candidates themselves prepare their issue statements, eliminating the danger of biased presentation by third-parties. Second, Elect-Your-Match! guides the visitor through a standardized questionnaire, focusing their attention on the key issues selected by the candidates themselves. In contrast, existing sites invite visitors to roam amidst a host of policy areas. Third, Elect-Your-Match! allows a voter to identify the candidate whose overall views are closest, while existing sites only enable voters to compare their views with candidates on an issue-by-issue basis. This not only makes Elect-Your-Match! a lot more fun, it also prepares voters better for the decision they will be making on Election Day.

Bruce Ackerman is a professor at law and political science at Yale and the author, with James Fishkin, of Deliberation Day.

Danieli Evans is a third-year student at Yale Law School.

 
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keithdengenis
Thinking... It's Patriotic
02:23 AM on 05/06/2012
Let me see if I have this right: The American Electorate is soooooo dumb, why correct the root cause? Why engage in persuasion and education? I get it, they are to be mocked and ridiculed; studied and maligned.

Got it.
12:21 PM on 05/04/2012
If the candidates are writing the statements wouldn't it be blatantly obvious which party wrote what? Seems like they're trying to make it blind, but unless someone else is writing the content I don't see how they could achieve that.
12:13 PM on 05/04/2012
The thrust is that the other sites all provide issue-by-issue matches, as opposed to only providing a single comprehensive match on a standardized questionnaire laying out the primary election issues. In simplifying the site's primary interface to give a single comprehensive match based on one preset agenda, one sacrifices in the initial round providing textured and detailed information, but simplifying this way might make it easier and more appealing for those who do not follow politics to use. To provide a single match based on a preset agenda, it seems crucial for the candidates themselves set the agenda or define the primary issues in the election. (The site could have deeper layers beyond the initial, simple questionnaire, where visitors who wished to explore more could seek additional information.) Building this model into one of the existing sites, with candidate cooperation, would be a terrific idea!
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cyberfringe
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.
10:36 AM on 05/04/2012
One problem with this plan: it will require voters to actually read and understand the policy statements. Assuming voters would poorly meet this challenge, the results would be largely random in favor of either candidate, resulting in a normal distribution-- that is, we would likely see the results about evenly divided between the candidates. To the extent one or the other candidate could use effective dog-whistle words or phrases, they might capture more "Strongly Agree" votes, and this swing the results in their favor by a few percent. How is that any different than what we have now?
09:42 AM on 05/04/2012
Seems like it will be much tougher to accurately match voters to candidates if the candidates are crafting their statements specifically for Elect-Your-Match!. That's one key reason why I think ElectNext has a more thoughtful approach to this problem, with a panel of independent, third-party folks processing the data.
01:19 AM on 05/04/2012
Maybe I missed it, but I'm suprised there was no mention of Americanselect.org.
Seems to me like what he's talking about is already up and running.
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68Namvet
Sioux, French, German, Jew, American mutt
07:54 PM on 05/03/2012
" Obama and Romney each pick their five priority issues and write up policy statements on each choice."

You're joking right? Obama told us what his priorities were and what his policies would be and carried through on none of them. And Romney has been on both sides of every issue from day one. They're politicians - guess what, THEY LIE!
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somebody9191
At long last, have you left no sense of decency?
11:00 AM on 05/06/2012
Really? bin Laden is dead. The economy is improving (albeit slowly). Troops are out of Iraq. Don't Ask Don't Tell is no longer. Guantanamo Bay would have been closed if not for obstructionism. Health care passed. and on, and on. . .
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68Namvet
Sioux, French, German, Jew, American mutt
07:57 PM on 05/08/2012
He did not campaign on bin Laden. The economy was helped, but the stimulus was far too small and mis-targeted. Troops came out of Iraq under the timetable and with the same personnel and policies of bush (the lesser) - he could and should have followed through on his promise to end the war as soon as he came into office. "Don't ask don't tell " was an accomplishment, but, he still has not stood up for equal rights and treatment under the law for gays. Gitmo could have and should have been closed - his choice to let congress dictate terms. Health care was passed but, he campaigned for single payer. He caved on the debt ceiling, tax rates for the wealthy and escalated Afghanistan. He is 100 times better than his predecessor and 10 times better than his opponent - but, let us not be fooled into thinking he has not made significant mistakes.
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larmarch5
06:32 PM on 05/03/2012
Even is someone's match IS Mitt, they would never admit it.
02:34 PM on 05/03/2012
I'm a huge fan of ElectNext. I really like how it's driven by an independent third-party of PhDs who have the public's interest at heart, as opposed to being driven by the candidates themselves (as Elect-Your-Match is seeking to do) - How is candidate-driven content and framing not biased?!?!
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larmarch5
06:32 PM on 05/03/2012
Obama came up as my guy when I did their survey.
nothingchanges
too soon old, too late smart
01:13 PM on 05/03/2012
Personally I'd like to vote for Abraham Lincoln.

Too bad, he, or his equal, are no where to be found in American Politics today.

Worse yet, with the system we now have in place, he wouldn't make it on the ballot of either party.

IMPO............American politics is in decline and has been for quite some time.

When the foxes are in charge of the hen house.

Egg production is the least of our worries.

We can't have honest ethical government when bribery finances our elections. It really is that simple.

Either we get campaign finance reform, or sit complacently back and watch democracy die.

"America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves." -Abraham Lincoln

God help us, from what I can see, we are in the process of accomplishing just that.
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somebody9191
At long last, have you left no sense of decency?
11:01 AM on 05/06/2012
What specifically about Lincoln do you like?
11:59 AM on 05/03/2012
Great article
11:58 AM on 05/03/2012
great
11:42 AM on 05/03/2012
I have used ElectNext and iSideWith. I do not agree with the results I got on iSideWith, ElectNext was pretty spot on. I like their focus on the issues that are important to me. I also found ElectNext questionnaire more comprehensive.
11:04 AM on 05/03/2012
Build it! And why constrain it to the POTUS? We can call it "536" (my apologies to fivethirtyeight.org).

Unfortunately, the GOP would never go for it, because they are on the wrong side of every issue. They use media, money and marketing to keep their rotten brand alive. But I like it anyway.
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Neil McCarthy
10:49 AM on 05/03/2012
I doubt that the 17% who incorrectly identified McCain as pro-choice are all that interested in politics to begin with, so the chances that Elect-Your-Match will cure that type of ignorance is probably pretty slim. And, there are also downsides. Digitized campaigns may turn out to be even less informative than the televised ones we currently endure. Who picks the "priority" issues? How large are the "policy" responses? And calling it a "your match" may be entirely inaccurate if one candidate just so happens to narrowly outscore another. Finally, the safeguard on computer dating is that you actually get to meet the person. Unless Elect-Your-Match is going to set up a one-on-one with Barack or Mitt, that safeguard is non-existent in your scheme.