With the midterm elections roughly nine weeks away, conventional wisdom would suggest gains for the Republican Party.
History is certainly on their side. Since 1870, only four times did the incumbent president's party not lose seats in Congress during midterm elections.
Moreover, it has been well-documented the country is in an angry, "throw the bums out" disposition. According to the most recent Reuters poll, 62 percent of the people feel the country is headed in the wrong direction.
So it would seem bad news abounds for the Democrats' midterm fortunes this year. In fact, I can think of only one reason for Democrats to be hopeful: the internal chaos within the Republican Party.
Is anger enough to return Republicans to the majorities in the House and Senate?
The nexus of the majority of the much-publicized anger is found within a section of the Republican Party. Though many tea party members claim their independence of both major parties, 79 percent, according to a recent Gallup poll, identify with the Republican Party.
Tea party members have been able to demonstrate their anger and influence during the Republican primary season, effectively re-branding the party.
They helped to oust Utah's three-term senator, Bob Bennett. They caused Pennsylvania's Arlen Specter in 2009 to become a Democrat, where he was defeated in the primary this year.
Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, realizing he could not win the Republican nomination for the U.S. senate seat, will run in November as an independent.
If the experts are correct, Alaska's incumbent senator, Lisa Murkowski, will lose to Joe Miller once the absentee ballots have been counted.
Arizona Sen. John McCain became more right wing and less maverick, in his primary victory over former Congressman J.D. Hayworth.
McCain, along with fellow South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham were at one time moderate Republican voices on immigration reform; both have embraced rhetoric toward the extreme political right.
For all of the anger displayed within the Republican Party, will it translate to GOP victories in the fall? Or has the party moved its center beyond the comfort zone of true independents, who are key to the midterm elections?
The Republican Party has ridden the wave of momentum fueled by anger and frustration throughout the campaign season. In doing so, it has become a party that seems to only hold reverence for the Second Amendment.
Can a major political party run candidates in the general election who openly speak of their disregard of the First and 14th Amendments and still remain viable?
Listening to NPR earlier this week, when a self-professed member of the tea party called in proclaiming his allegiance to the Constitution, he specifically cited the free expression amendments within the Bill of Rights, but acknowledged his problems with the 14th Amendment.
I suspect his problem with the 14th Amendment was its birthright citizenship clause, which is in opposition to his view of illegal immigration.
That's not rational discourse. That naively believes that one's truth is impervious to any opposition offered by the Constitution.
The tea party movement represents a double-edge sword for the Republican Party. It is responsible for the momentum within the party, but also responsible for moving the party further away from what would be considered mainstream.
Does anyone remember Rand Paul's ideological conundrum with Rachel Maddow earlier this year? The libertarian in him sought to protect the rights of business owners who wished to discriminate without taking complete issue with The Civil Rights Act of 1964.
Will this season's momentum suffice? Or will the gravitational pull of the tea party cause Republicans to be viewed as outside the mainstream the same way the anti-war movement labeled Democrats in the late 1960s and early '70s?
If the tea party represents the core of the Republican Party, are we not talking about a GOP re-branding? If so, could such re-branding comprise a majority in Congress?
Don't misunderstand; this hardly represents a ringing endorsement for Democrats. I'm simply pointing out the best chance Democrats have short of a dramatic, and I mean dramatic, economic upswing.
So gear up for those Democrat-sponsored commercials that say: "Hey I know I've let you down, but look at the other guy!"
I wonder how many times that tag line has saved seats during a midterm election?