Clinton is Winning the Perception Battle

McCain is trapped in an unenviable box. If he supports the present administration policies -- advantage Democrats. If he tries to run away from them -- advantage Democrats.
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For all of the cacophony around 3:00 AM phone calls or whose ready to lead on day-one there remain a few stubborn, but noteworthy facts that will not go away.

After the dust settled, Sen. Clinton's impressive March 4 primary victories in Texas, Ohio, and Rhode translate in a net pickup of two delegates.

The delegate count, according to Real Clear Politics shows Senator Clinton with a net pickup of 9 delegates on March 4. Obama, with Texas' primary/caucus system actually won four more delegates than Sen. Clinton.

But Obama gained seven delegates in his subsequent victories in Wyoming and Mississippi.

Given the primaries and caucuses are a race for delegates, how then can Pennsylvania carry more weight than North Carolina and Indiana -- the states holding primaries and caucuses immediately after the Keystone state? Pennsylvania, which Sen. Clinton is expected to do well, has a total of 158 delegates. North Carolina and Indiana, where Obama is expected to do well has a total of 182 delegates.

Assuming everything holds true to form (which is a big assumption this year) the primary season through May 6 seems to benefit Obama.

Ironically, the Clinton campaign strategy is reminiscent of their initial fundraising strategy -- getting large donors to contribute the maximum, while Obama struck gold with a large pool of small dollar contributors.

But the retort to these facts is Clinton is winning the states that Democrats need to win in November. Democrats have no chance in states like Kansas, Nebraska, Utah, and Georgia -- places where Obama has done well.

In a linear sense, this is true. It does, however, assume a static electorate impervious to the changing economic and political climate.

If the country were going to stay within the predictable contours of red and blue states, the Clinton rationale would make more sense. In spite of Clinton strategist, Mark Penn's assertion that Obama can't win the general election against presumptive Republican nominee John McCain, this year's political landscape may suggest otherwise.

When one examines the electoral map this year, it is actually possible for a Democrat to be victorious in November without Florida or Ohio. It's not just an unpopular war that will be debated in the fall; the economic pain across the board is felt much greater than it was four years ago.

In addition to the usual battleground suspects, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, and West Virginia -- states won by Bush in 2000 and 2004 will be back in play this year. Moreover, some pundits even believe Mississippi, with its large but dormant African American population could also be competitive if turnout is high.

McCain is trapped in an unenviable box. If he supports the present administration policies -- advantage Democrats. If he tries to run away from them -- advantage Democrats.

Obama probably will not win Idaho, South Dakota, or Wyoming, but it is equally doubtful that McCain will win New York, California, or Illinois. At present, McCain has more states to hold than do either Clinton or Obama.

McCain must rely on the Bush 2004 strategy, and to some degree the Clinton 2008 primary strategy, which is to scare voters away from their desires for change.

Did we not get a glimpse of the possible change last week? Democrat Bill Foster won the 14th Congressional seat in Illinois, which had been held for two decades by former Republican Speaker Dennis Hastert.

But we're getting ahead of ourselves; the Democrats still have to settle on a nominee. The primary season remains a race for delegates -- pledged and super. The most pressing issue for Democrats: what to do with Florida and Michigan voters?

Thus, Pennsylvania is more important because the Clinton campaign has done a superior job at defining it as such. In the words of labor organizer Saul Alinsky, whoever controls the definition controls the outcome and it is the Clinton campaign that is clearly winning the perception battle.

And perception is reality if we choose it to be so, even if it only nets the winner two delegates.

Byron Williams is an Oakland pastor and syndicated columnist. He is the author of "Strip Mall Patriotism: Moral Reflections of the Iraq War." E-mail him at byron@byronspeaks.com Or go to his website, byronspeaks.com

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