Fear, Change, and Power Could Morph Red and Blue into Purple

Because no one has ever won a November presidential election in May, any pre-election analysis put forth is at best speculation -- this column being no exception.

Assuming Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee, he goes into the general election against John McCain with a number of advantages.

According to a New York Times poll, Obama enjoys a seven-point national lead over McCain. He also will most likely have a decided money advantage.

When it comes to campaign money, the Democratic Party of 2008 is the Republican Party circa 2004. Political money tends to flow toward the presumptive favorite. Since the 2006 mid-term election, the Democrats have repeated that mantra.

The Obama campaign, in particular, has mastered Internet fundraising in such a way that it makes George W. Bush's famed "Pioneers" look like 1849 prospectors.

Moreover, the Democrats are expected to gain seats in the House and Senate. They have already won seats in the House once thought to be untouchable. House seats that belonged to former Majority Leader Tom DeLay and former Speaker Dennis Hastert are now held by Democrats.

After a stinging loss in a Louisiana special election last month, Republicans invested $1.3 million and dispatched Vice President Dick Cheney in a last-minute effort to retain a Mississippi congressional seat in one of the most reliably conservative districts in the nation to no avail.

McCain also must campaign with the anvil of President Bush around his neck. If McCain is caught in the quicksand of defending the last eight years, he could plausibly find himself on the short end of the worst Republican defeat since the man he replaced in the Senate, Barry Goldwater, lost to Lyndon Johnson in 1964.

In the latest ABC, CBS, and Gallup polls, the president has a job disapproval rating of 66, 63, and 68 percent respectively. Only the ABC poll has the president's approval rating more than 30 percent.

These dismal poll numbers come against a backdrop that shows 81 percent of Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, and it doesn't help McCain's cause that former Republican Rep. Bob Barr announced his presidential run as a Libertarian this week, opining that McCain is not a true conservative.

Then there is the head-to-head matchup between McCain and Obama. On issues ranging from the economy, health care, the war in Iraq, gas prices, immigration and ethics, the majority of voters polled trust Obama to deal with these issues more effectively than McCain.

What does all this mean? Speculatively speaking, it could mean that McCain has Obama right where he wants him.

With the Democrats primed to be in charge of the legislative and executive branches of government, one of the tragic lessons of the Bush administration is the arrogance that becomes embedded when one party controls all three branches. Lest we forget the corrupting nature of absolute power is bipartisan.

After 12 years exiled to minority-party status in Congress and eight years of viewing the Oval Office through the window, what would inhibit Democrats from exercising their seldom-used power? It is astonishing to conceive, but recent Republican ineptitude could serve the interest of the McCain campaign.

Also, the one issue where McCain can address more effectively than Obama is terrorism. Though it is only a single issue, it is the issue that brings a certain amount of fear.

Fear has a way of negating other issues of importance, especially if a terrorist attack would occur just before the election. Could the impulse of fear trump the public's understandable desires for change?

This year's primary season strongly suggests the old rules may not apply. In a McCain versus Obama presidential race, the likelihood that more states will morph into purple from their traditional red and blue is greater than at any time in recent memory.

Byron Williams is an Oakland pastor and syndicated columnist. He is the author of "Strip Mall Patriotism: Moral Reflections of the Iraq War". E-mail him at byron@byronspeaks.com or go to his website, byronspeaks.com