It's Not About Palin; It's About McCain

If John McCain's veep choice was designed to dominate the news cycle, then I say: "Mission Accomplished."

To his supporters picking Alaska Governor, Sarah Palin looks bold; to his detractors, it's cynical.
Since McCain tabbed Palin to be a heartbeat away from commander-in-chief the chattering class has all but forgot Barack Obama's dramatic acceptance speech in Denver.

It is quite amusing to watch the Democratic faithful beam with the sincerity of Alice in Wonderland's Cheshire Cat at what they view as a sophomoric choice on McCain's behalf.

History would be quick to point out Democrats held similar positions in 1968 when Richard Nixon selected the unheralded Spiro Agnew and in 1988 when George H.W. Bush chose the untested Dan Quayle, both of whom went on to victory.

As I recall, in their one vice presidential debate, Democrat Lloyd Bentsen, cleaned Quayle's clock, but that didn't help Michael Dukakis.

Palin's record, or lack thereof, offers more than enough discussion.

Her Hillary-like cackle while appearing on a Alaska radio show when one of the hosts referred to a member of the Alaska Legislature and cancer survivor as a "B-word" warrants evaluation about her judgment and panache.

When has a presidential race come down to the vice presidential choice? It doesn't, not even the 1972 race when George McGovern selected Thomas Eagleton for 18 days, until revelations that Eagleton checked himself into a hospital three times for physical and nervous exhaustion, twice receiving electric shock treatments, which led to his being replaced by Sargent Shriver.

It wasn't Eagleton, but the way McGovern handled the matter that helped doom his election against Richard Nixon.

That's not to say vice presidential candidates are inconsequential, Dick Cheney's eight years debunks that theory. As public figures, running on the national ticket grants the individual less right to privacy than the average citizen.

But do we need to know that Palin's teenage daughter is pregnant?

There is nothing newsworthy over the revelation that a 17-year-old is five months pregnant in our society. That is a challenging and sensitive matter that the Palin family must grapple.

It is easy to decry the obvious hypocrisy of Palin's demand for abstinence and the failure of that policy to work in her own home.

I commend Barack Obama's no tolerance statement. "I strongly urge people to back off these kinds of stories. You know my mother had me when she was 18," he said.

Frankly, I don't, and suspect a scant few prognosticators do, know exactly what McCain's selection of Palin will mean politically. Moreover, regardless of who is the vice presidential choice, McCain and Obama must confront obstacles to pass the 270 electoral vote (ev) plateau required to be the next president.

According to The Cook Political Report, there are 150 (ev) that are solid Democrat, while Republicans have 130. Democrats lead Republicans 33 to 27 in the "likely" category, and 57 to 17 in the "leaning" category. This gives Obama a 240 to 174 electoral vote advantage with 124 (ev) in the "toss-up" range.

The good news for Obama of the nine states considered toss-ups, eight were won by Bush in 2004. McCain will be forced to hold on to 117 (ev), while Obama must hold on to 17 previously won by Kerry and Gore.

McCain's hope lies in the six toss-up states or 81 (ev) that have not been carried by a Democrat since Bill Clinton in 1996, including Florida and Ohio. The presidential race will be won by the candidate, who can overcome their pending obstacles.

Obama's moderate post convention bump notwithstanding, this is shaping up to an election bearing strong resemblance to 1980. Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter were locked in a tight race until the numbers broke Reagan's way in the waning weeks before Election Day.

I doubt Palin or, for that matter, Democratic vice presidential nomine Joe Biden will determine which direction the country goes. Fortunately, people still vote for who is at top of the ticket.

As information is released about Palin it says more about John McCain. How detailed was the McCain vetting process?

If it turns out the person at the top of the ticket ultimately went with his gut rather examining the details it just feels that most Americans have already seen that horror movie for the past eight years.

Follow Byron Williams on Twitter: www.twitter.com/byronspeaks

Comments

[Dap]

Dear Rev. Williams,

It's been awhile since I've dropped in on ya, hope you are well. That's was a wonderful and spot-on essay/post, just does not get more clear than that, John (the POW) McCain is at the top of the ticket, and it's his judgement that is in serious question. Agape.

[JRsNana]

Exactly right. It is about McCain. And his "judgement". If this was meant to show us his "judgement" in a positive light - then God help him - and us.

[blindhog]

You're absolutely right, it is about McCain. The first presidential decision Obama made was to pick a respected senior with over 30 years in the Senate. The first presidential decision McCain made was to pick a controversial mayor/18 month governor from one of the least populated states in the nation. It sounds like a Bush move all over again.

[RCD]

But, when you think about his decision in light of his biography, it makes sense. McCain picked a wealthy young beautiful wife in a sparsely populated state to begin his political career, over his wife and daughter. Why shouldn't he pick an attractive young VP, from a sparsely populated state to compliment his next ego trip to be president? He is a shallow thinker and opportunist (chauvinist?) who uses women to reach his objectives. And the ace up his sleeve may be to slide his unpopular VP choices of Lieberman, Frist, etc. by his conservative base and the convention by dropping her after a few days of public vetting and embracing the VP he wanted after all.

[tompoe]

McCain chose a woman who publicly announced that she and her daughter made certain choices, based on political belief that all women (other than they) do not deserve to make those same choices. Her publicly stated position to remove choice from women flies in the face of her position that she and her daughter have exclusive rights to make choices. One can assume she intends to actively pursue the overturning of the law of our land that requires everyone to respect every woman's right to choose whether to have an abortion or not. Palin used that law of the land to make her choice, and she announced that her daughter was given that same choice. The question becomes, why is there a choice for the Palin family, when it comes to abortion decisions, but not for any other American woman? Maybe McCain needs to respond to this question, no?

[kevinlangendorf]

If this woman wasn't a champion of abstinence only pregnancy prevention, or if she was a promoter of sex ed, then her pregnant daughter wouldn't be an issue. However, since she talks up the whole "family values" buzzwords, and since she very publicly holds such views, then yeah, her daughter is on the table. This pregnant, unwed teenage daughter is a personification of why Palin's hypocritical stances on family values are completely bankrupt and without merit.

[freddd]

I think it's fair to say the election will be strongly reflect Palin coz she's slyly trying to steal the credit that rightfully belongs to Hillary and so far this bait of Mcain towards women voters where Obama outclasses him is scaring more fish away than it could possibly trap. Am so delighted that being civilized and thinking on the content of the product is what sells rather than its deceiving outward look will deliver harsh judgment on Mccain. To be precise this is a Frankenstein!!!

[Bryanedwardhill]

I think the biggest difference between Reagan/Bush or Bush/Quayle(sp) is that the life-span of the news cycle is much, much shorter.

Look, Obama's a great, inspirational speaker. He gave a great, inspirational speech. I don't think we would still be talking about it even without Sarah Palin. Frankly, I'm glad Sarah stop the news cycle from focusing on the "first BLACK nominee". That could have been more subconsciously damaging to a campaign seeking to build common ground.

McCain is running from a discussion of policy. That much is clear. The question is how long can he keep distracting us from the fact that the country is in bad shape.

My guess. Maybe another week. Ten days if he's lucky. Then it's back to the grind and he's still stuck without answers.

BH