Assuming the accuracy of polls is correct, if the California primary were held today, voters would be hard pressed to pick former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack out of the Democrat lineup.
A poll released last week by the American Research Group has Vilsack last, trailing Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson and Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio, each with 1 percent support among likely voters.
But as Vilsack unveiled his energy platform at the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco on Tuesday, he hardly sounded like a candidate who has yet to appear on the voters' radar screen.
As the first Democrat to declare his candidacy for president, Vilsack is perhaps positioning himself to fill the void vacated by Academy Award and Nobel Peace Prize nominee Al Gore, the former vice president, by making energy policy central to his campaign.
If elected, Vilsack said he would propose tax credits to improve technology to produce various types of ethanol fuel. He made it clear that his proposal was not designed solely to benefit his home state of Iowa -- a leader in corn-based ethanol. He cited cellulosic ethanol -- produced from a wide variety of plant and forest waste products -- as holding the most promise.
"You're not going to get to 60 billion gallons of renewable fuel, you're certainly not going to get to 45 billion of cellulosic material by relying on Iowa," he said. "I'm not running for governor of Iowa, I'm running for president of the United States and I realize that all 50 states must participate."
Those in attendance longing to hear a candidate give specifics were hardly disappointed. Linking national security and economic growth, Vilsack gave a 30-minute address where he outlined an "energy security" plan calling for:
-New emissions standards for energy companies, requiring them to reduce their carbon output by 1 percent annually.
-Requiring new coal-powered utilities to produce 20 percent less carbon emissions and all new power plants built after 2020 to produce zero carbon emissions.
-Setting goals of using 60 million gallons of renewable fuel and making new vehicles 50 percent more fuel-efficient by 2030.
-Setting goals of reducing U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 75 percent over 50 years and working to eliminate petroleum from the U.S. transportation system by 2040.
In addition, Vilsack said he would involve developing nations, such as India and China, by including carbon emission standards as part of trade agreement negotiations.
This was a serious policy speech that addressed arguably the nation's most vital long-term issue, but questions remain whether many beyond the estimated 100 in attendance would take notice.
Now that California seems destined to move its primary date to Feb. 5, 2008, Vilsack has less than a year to get his message across -- a daunting task for a candidate who has yet to break the 1 percent-support plateau.
Ironically, the only time Vilsack appeared somewhat testy was when I asked him if he planned to follow Sens. Clinton, Obama and Edwards and opt out of the federal matching funds? If not, could he compete against those who have set their sights on raising $100 million this year?
"You don't need $100 million to be competitive in Iowa and New Hampshire. It's not about money; it's about organization and money. I am confident that we're going to have the organization and structure to do well in both of those states. I think it's unfortunate that (money) seems to be the focus of a lot of attention -- it ought to be about ideas."
Indeed, it ought to be about ideas. I'm still waiting for a candidate to speak substantively about America's involvement in torture and disregard for habeas corpus. But ideas are not foremost in our current system.
As former California Assembly Speaker Jess Unruh so famously opined, "money is still the mother's milk of politics." And there are several "rock stars" among the Democrats who may raise in excess of $500 million collectively. Thus, Vilsack will need to work hard, reminding voters in California of words from his Commonwealth Club speech: "I may not be a rock star, but I am rock solid."
Byron Williams is an Oakland pastor and a syndicated columnist. E-mail him at byron@byronspeaks.com or leave a message at (510) 208-6417.