Video advertising will double approximately every two years until all online ads will be video ads. That's right. All online ads will be video.
I am calling this prediction "Cam's Law" (after Moi) with due respect and deep regard to Intel Founder Gordon E. Moore, who in 1965 predicted that the number of transistors on integrated circuits would double every two years thereby exponentially increasing computing power.
Trust me, it does not take a genius to see the trends. My prediction is firmly guided by data. comScore recently reported that Americans watched 11.3 billion video ads in December, setting a new peak, and a sharp 10% rise from November's 10.3 billion. December 2012 ad views were twice as many as in January 2012, representing 59% year-over-year growth. Video ads accounted for 22.6% of all videos viewed in December, and 1.9% of time spent viewing video online.
But That Was Last Year
Now three months into 2013, I feel ever more confident about Cam's Law given the astronomical speed at which video advertising has grown in popularity. All signs point to the death of banner and static ads. Here's why:
1. Consumers love video; not just cat MEMEs, but original content. And they watch a lot of video online. Nielsen says Americans spent more than 360 billion minutes online in December 2012 and streamed 24.6 billion videos.
2. Consumers watch video ads. After 60 years of television we have learned to watch the ads to get to the content. Yes, we know you want to get to your show, but often the ads are entertaining, visual and mercifully brief - and getting more interactive by the day.
3. Advertisers like video ads because consumers watch them. From August this year, market research company Nielsen will validate the astronomical shift to online video by including video viewed on tablet and mobile devices in their ratings measures. This will provide advertisers the data they need to shift their spend to online video in even greater numbers.
4. Consumers are buying (lots of) tablets. The global market for tablet computers surged 78.4 percent last year, according to research firm IDC, and sales are on schedule to pass PCs by 2017.
5. Tablets & smart phones make watching video easy in the bedroom, train, couch, park bench, and, ahem, bathroom.
6. Tablets make shopping easy and you can bet your last dollar that online retailers took notice last Thanksgiving and Christmas, so expect a monumental change in online sales strategies this year and increased consumer purchases via mobile and tablet.
7. If consumers are buying on their tablets, guess where advertisers will want to run their ads?
8. 4G will make watching video anywhere seamless. Did someone say "conversation killer?"
9. Banner ads do not work, but you already knew that.
Advertisers Can't Ignore The Numbers
As advertisers are beginning to embrace tablet advertising in virtually every case they want video in their ad units. Consumers are watching those video ads hundreds of times more than they are clicking on banner ads.
While display and banner advertising were yesterday's stepping stones for advertisers to enter the digital market, video is where the real action is.
Watch this space.
In 2014, we will review Cam's Law to see where the market is; and we'll do it via video because we know you will watch that. On your tablet.