Dream Tickets? For Dems, Not So Fast -- For Repubs, Keep Dreaming!

As we wrap up the nomination process for the Democrats, and Barack Obama assumes the mantle for the Party and for its hopes and dreams for "change," most of the attention is now focused on the Vice Presidential choices to be made by both John McCain and Barack Obama.
While the Democratic selection process is more exciting and dramatic for obvious reasons, the Republican selection process is, for me, equally as interesting -- although Republicans for the moment seem more focused on denying that there was ever anyone "in the loop" in the Bush White House as a way of discrediting the Scott McClellan book. Richard Clark wasn't in the loop, Paul O'Neil wasn't in the loop, and now Scott McClellan they say was not in the loop. I'm now convinced that when the President finishes his memoirs we will learn that Condoleezza Rice and Dick Cheney were not in the loop either.

The ironic note to ponder is that there may come a time when, as a response to revelations about abuse of constitutionally protected civil liberties and rights, revelations about manipulation of intelligence and information to build support for the war in Iraq, and incompetence in responding to Katrina and benign neglect of the needs of working class Americans in favor of the moneyed classes and corporate interests, many current and soon to be former members of the Bush Administration will be insisting that they were "not in the loop" as a defense of accusations made against them rather than as an attack strategy to discredit others.

But once we sort through these issues, both candidates and both Parties will focus on the VP selection choices, and when they do, some of the points I raise for consideration today may very well attract their attention.

For John McCain, the issue of "age" will be one that will factor into his selection process. Because McCain would be the oldest person to actually take office if he is elected, and because of other health concerns, McCain would like to balance his ticket with someone who presents an image of "youth and vigor" to ease voter concerns about this area. Hogwash. If a candidate is perceived as old and tired, putting someone on the ticket in the VP slot right out of Romper Room is not going to allay the reservations of those voters for whom that issue is a major consideration in their decision to begin with.

Senator McCain is considering Bobby Jindal, the recently elected Governor of Louisiana, as a potential choice. In the campaign this year there have been candidates with kids almost as old as Jindal. And I would also submit that Jindal's lack of experience and seasoning would only weaken that argument for McCain when he makes it against Barack Obama on the other side.
In addition, McCain's age will likely draw even more attention to the possibility that he might voluntarily serve only one term or might be forced to. In that event, the issue of can his VP choice move into the Oval Office and be "ready on day one" is even more of a consideration than usual for this election. For that reason, I do not see Bobby Jindal as his best choice. He needs a candidate who inspires the same level of confidence in their qualifications and readiness for the job (versus agreement with their political issue positions) as McCain does himself.

The fact is, John McCain would be a fool not to at least ask Colin Powell to serve as VP on his ticket. First, even with his image somewhat tarnished by his association with the Bush Administration and the decision to invade Iraq, Colin Powell still remains one of those "larger than life" public figures whose stature is still extraordinarily positive among the American electorate. Second, no one would question whether Powell would be able to step in if the need were necessary and take over the reins of the Presidency with a seamless continuity. Third, we now know that Powell was in fact leery of the decision to invade Iraq and ultimately decided to stay in the administration in order to attempt to have some greater impact in arguing his position than he would on the outside.

And fourth, and very significantly, Powell gives McCain a very potent antidote to the "race" factor in a reverse positive way -- at least for McCain's campaign. I maintain that there is among our electorate, a significant number of white voters who are not comfortable with Barack Obama but do not want to feel like their opposition to Obama is just because of race (this is a different group from that segment of the electorate who specifically are not voting for Obama because of race). For the former group, Colin Powell as VP provides a "guilt release" that enables many independents, older voters, disgruntled Republicans and conservatives who do have some issues with race, a chance to say "see, I'm not letting race affect my vote. I'm voting for the ticket with Colin Powell, aren't I -- so that shows that I would have no problem voting for a Black President."

It's a somewhat disingenuous argument, but don't underestimate the number of voters who would embrace this explanation of their position. And finally, Colin Powell would be a distinguished asset to any ticket as he is a true great American who does have the experience and seasoned ability to be President. Of course, a Powell VP candidacy is unlikely, as he has indicated no interest and has in fact been ex-officio, providing advice and counsel to Barack Obama.

For John McCain, I believe that either Mitt Romney or Charlie Crist remain the best choices who could help him the most -- one nationally and the other in Florida, a state that either Party would kill for to include in their column in November.

For Democrats, the VP selection choice is more complicated, more potentially explosive, and more critical to the ultimate success of the Presidential candidate.

A few months back, my position on this was if Hillary Clinton was the nominee, then Bill Richardson should be a "lock" for the VP slot. But after hearing his positions during the debates, and after the way he handled his Obama endorsement, I'm not sure he's the right choice for a potential future President regardless of who is at the top of the ticket. In terms of adding to the ticket, seasoning it a bit, bringing extensive experience, having real expertise on foreign policy and an articulated position on Iraq, Joe Biden might be as good a choice as Senator Obama could make. John Edwards? -- just not sure he would actually add anything to what Obama already has or is pretty sure of getting. For Edwards, an open announced commitment before the election that he would be Attorney General might actually help Obama more. Chris Dodd, Jim Webb, Sebelius, others -- only Jim Webb really makes sense but he lacks the "intangible" qualities that enable a VP choice to help the ticket.

And Virginia is in play for Democrats -- at the state level they may wind up having the Governor's mansion and BOTH US Senate seats. But quite frankly, at the Presidential level, much is made of that state being "in play" now. Do not be misled by Senator Obama's success in the Democratic Primary in Virginia . He will have a tough time carrying that state even if he has Robert E. Lee on the ticket -- actually, a correction. Lee would be immensely helpful -- which goes to the problems Obama will have there and in other southern and middle belt swing states. And Hillary would actually be the stronger candidate in those states for precisely those reasons, plus the "women" and "Hispanic" factor.

In fact, with respect to the VP slot on the Democratic ticket, we all know what we are dealing with. Will there be a "dream" ticket with Obama for President and Hillary for VP?

Two points. First, no one has really been looking at this from Hillary's perspective. It is my judgment that if Hillary is not the presidential candidate, she actually has little to gain from being the VP nominee and may have a great deal to lose. First, if the ticket wins, as Vice President, she will probably have less influence than several Senate Democrats, particularly those like Chris Dodd and John Kerry who threw their support to Obama early. And God willing, if he pulls through his current cancer surgery and treatment, an Obama Presidency would give Ted Kennedy the role as the most pre-eminent Democrat in the country, and the most powerful, after the president.

On the other hand, if the ticket wins with Hillary not on there as VP, and she remains in the Senate instead, her 17 million votes will give her almost a prohibitive "odds on favorite" chance to be Senate majority leader with a mandate from the public electorate unlike any other previous member of the Senate has had while serving in that body. And in that capacity, as well as being from a powerful state like New York, Clinton will set the strategic tone and approach to either make or break the legislative agenda of a President Obama.

As the VP selection, Obama needs Hillary before the election but not much afterwards. As Senate majority leader with a real power base of her own, if Clinton is not the VP candidate, Obama really needs her after the election but not so much before -- although he might need her either way -- in which case we have another argument for her not to accept the VP slot.
All of this is based on if Obama wins. If Obama loses, it doesn't matter whether Hillary is on the ticket or not -- she would still have a chance (although not a prohibitive favorite one) to run again in 2012, and probably have a more likely chance of getting the nomination than Obama would if he wanted the nomination for a second try.

Finally, and this may be a bit more sinister. But there may be another reason for Hillary not to accept a VP slot if offered. Usually, the nominee wraps up the primary fight and secures the nomination in June, and the conventions are in early to mid July. This year, Obama will indeed wrap things up in early June, and then there will be two full months before the Democratic convention at the very end of August. Long enough for some real buyer's remorse to set in once the fighting is over and all the focus will be on scrutinizing Obama. As we have seen, two months is a long long time in this political season. If anything can happen, something usually does. One thing seems clear -- whoever Obama's VP choice is, he or she will be vetted extensively to make sure they do not have any ties whatsoever even as a guest visitor to Trinity Church.

But here is the bottom line. Everyone can speculate as much as they want on the Democratic VP choice. In the end, Barack Obama will gather with his top and most trusted advisers and insiders, and they will make this decision based on the following criteria. If Obama can reasonably and confidently calculate that he can win the November election without Hillary on the ticket, she will not be on the ticket as he will not ask her to run with him, even if she wants it more than anything else. On the other hand, if the Obama final calculation is that they are not likely to win without Hillary on the ticket, then I can assure you they will not accept anyone else but her on the ticket. And she might have to accept -- for Party unity or sanity -- no matter where her own personal political best interests might lie.

Yes, both sides may be contemplating their "Dream Tickets." But they are also calculating the chances of those dreams turning into nightmares -- and if you're having a nightmare, the best cure is to "wake them up" before it goes too far and ruins your day -- for at least four years.

Carl Jeffers is a Seattle-and Los Angeles based columnist, TV political analyst, radio talk show host and lecturer. E-mail: [e-mail]

Comments

[PioneerKing]

Riddle me this - why would Sen. Clinton wish to play second fiddle to someone the Clintons have spent 15 months marginalizing?
How can this make sense if Sen. Clinton believes that "only she and Sen. McCain have the experience to run the country?" Would it not make more sense to court Sen. McCain to be his VP?
What rational does Sen. Clinton have, other than political avarice, for wishing to be a part of an administration that would be led by someone who the Clintons say "is not experienced enough?"
What role would the "person who believes she received the most votes cast," and who believes "the nomination was stolen from her,” really be able to play?
Would not Sen. Clinton and Bill Clinton and all of their hanger ons that they would bring with them really be considered the ones running the show?
Would not this only emphasize the lack of experience that Sen. Obama has, in that he would need the former President and former First Lady babysitting him.
What a disaster, what a way to neuter the first African-American president.

[neoprimordial]

Have you ever heard the phrase "politics makes for strange bedfellows"? And the only presidency in recent memory to have needed, and got, babysitting is the current one. Check out Barack & Hillary at AIPAC to get an idea of what it might be like with them as a team.

[acquablu]

I think one of the problem's here is that unlike previous democratic presidential nominees who were voted in the primaries and caucuses with an overwhelming 70+%, Obama will end up with 50%+1. Even though he will cinch the presidential nomination he is clearly not playing with a full hand and many "Obama" supporters seem to think that Clinton's supporters will automatically file behind Obama regardless of what he does. Ergo, they think it is his right to completely cut her out. The problem is these hard-core Obama supporters don't realize that Hillary has hardcore supporters that comprise 45% of the democratic primaries voting base. Therefore, while Obama may have the nomination, his decisions cannot be made within a vacuum, because any slight towards Clinton may antagonize rather than unify the groups. To a large extent I think Clinton has much sway in terms of whether she wants the VP slot. She retains a lot of leverage because of the substantial support she has received throughout the entire campaign.

Now that Obama has cinched the nomination, I think Obama supporters (if they really support him) should start being more concillatory towards the Clintons, because they too have a large and extensive fanbase. "Demonizing" Hillary and the Clintons merely increases the animosity between the two camps. And this is ultimately not a good thing for Barack's chances in the fall. Barack's supporters are not going to win all by themselves.

[Faith101]

CAN WE AT LEAST REPORT THE BIGGEST STORY TO EVER MAKE HISTORY. THE US IS ON THE BRINK OF ELECTING ITS FIRST EVER AFRICAN AMERICAN FOR REPRESENT. THIS WILL MAKE MAJOR NEWS ALL OVER THE WORLD. LET'S GIVE OBAMA SOME MORE CREDIT AND RECOGNIZE THIS PLIGHT FOR ALL OF AMERICA. YOU DON'T HAVE BE FOR HIM, BUT DON'T SHADOW THE STORY WITH WHO IS GOING TO BE HIS VP!!!!!!!!

[Researchguy66]

Powell's wife won't likely let him run and I doubt he'd be an ideal candidate anyway.

I am curious why people who would vote for Colin Powell, but not Barack Obama (like me) are disingenuous in saying that they have no problem with a black President.

Is he less black than Obama? Is he somehow unqualified to be black because he's a republican? I wonder if Hillary were up against Powell in WV, PA and KY - who would have won... actually I don't wonder, I know.

[MilesLong]

In addition to any protestations that Powell's wife won't let him run, he has the baggage of having been sent into Viet Nam to be the cover-up guy for the Mai Lai Massacre. Powell has always been a good little soldier, and as such, more concerned with towing the administration line than displaying any individual spine on his own.

Were he a man of any conviction we would have know it by some hint of personal revelation about his own feelings about being sent to the UN for that absurdity of a dog and pony show. His silence gives consent, and that's something America no longer should tolerate.

If he was lied to, then his judgment is faulty. If he was going along, then he's no better than McCain, or any of the hundreds of other enablers (along with America's corporate media giants) who wanted to be included in the popular group at school..

Isn't about time we quit settling for lessors of two evils, or leaders who go along to get along?

Miles "Nobody's Lacky" Long

[burnt]

all that exercise just to get to the Clinton spin... what a joke. The Clintons can not be a part of the solution, as they are so very much a part of the problem.

Real change means just that... we will no longer settle for an illusion of change.

[elbzee]

Interesting and though provoking positions. I have to differ with you on one thing. I have had enormous respect for Colin Powell and strongly believed he was a likely headed to eventually be a presidential candidate. That is, up until he addressed the UN Security Council in 2003. I watched the man stand there and tell bald faced lies to the entire world to convince us all that we should wage an illegal war. While I understand that there is A LOT of lying in politics, the fact that he would willingly sell the war is unforgivable. He is as guilty a war criminal as Bush and Cheney are.

So, no, I don’t agree on your points about Powell’s viability as a VP pick.

[PuritanDescendant]

Jeffers writes that it's a matter of whether Obama _can_ win without Hillary (a vague measure). It's whether he is _most_ likely to win with Hillary on the ticket. It's about which VP would best improve the probability of winning. Some non-scientific reasons why that's Hillary:

First, it was an exciting primary season, the head-to-head competition in nearly all of the states was a grand show. Re-enacting that show with a joint ticket would re-create the energy and enthusiasm of the primary.

Second, Hillary has undeniably connected with voters, a significant portion of whom are very enthusiastic about Hillary.

Third, in an election with likely razor-thin margins in a number of key states, if Hillary can even deliver 1-2% increases in votes for the Dem ticket, that could be the winning edge. This leads to the fourth reason.

Fourth, Hillary plays well into the 50-state strategy. She can give a little boost in all states. This is better than the idea of picking a VP to supposedly deliver just one state, like VA.

Fifth, she's got a lot of the Democratic Party's infrastructure at her command. Fundraising, calling favors, Bill, etc. We need a united Democratic Party to win this election, and Hillary would help make that happen.

Let bygones be bygones, time to get pragmatic.

[fairwitness]

"...even with his image somewhat tarnished..."

Powell is only "somewhat tarnished'?! You are smoking something potent, my friend, or your synapses are plaque-ing-up.

He SOLD the illegal, immoral, catastropic, worst-mili­tary-blund­er-in-a-ce­ntury Iraq invasion to us, with charts and photos and animation demagogery and...LIES...and he's only "somewhat tarnished"? He forced us to buy a broken country, was silent while we crushed it and its people (including tens of thousands of innocents) and, long after, when politically convenient, left quietly by the back door so as to avoid blame.

One can only HOPE McCain makes such a monumental blunder as to name Powell his VP. TWO war-mongering, uninformed, conscience-less militarists for the price of ONE!

[elbzee]

gmta fairwitness! I share your hope - let McCain tank himself, he's doing a great job so far!

[AuntSally]

If Clinton keeps her word to "work my heart out" for Obama, then there's no need for her to have the VP slot. She can bring her voters along if she chooses, even if she's not the running mate.

Collin Powell is the first sensible suggestion I've heard for McCain. That's a ticket that might have a chance.

I like the Biden suggestion for Obama. What about Dean?

[Researchguy66]

Awesome idea...Biden will definitely bring Delaware and it's 3 EV's with him...assuming he doesn't put the country to sleep for 5 months.

[ThoughtfulDavid]

While Colin Powell would have certain advantages for the Republican ticket, this would be counterbalanced by a big negative.

If I were a Democratic strategist against Powell, I'd run video 24/7 for about four months of him giving his speech at the UN calling for the Iraq war. Remind everyone that it was he that gave the final impetus to get us into that mess. And that he obviously knew that the case was at best shaky or at worst a lie. It would destroy what little of his credibility he really has left. And remind everyone that Grandpa McCain / Powell would be just Bush III.

And down they would go.

[PuritanDescendant]

Agreed. Powell is a lightweight. No elected office. Bush's lapdog. Silent as State Dept. was steamrolled by DOD. Unable to speak up when his own Doctrine (rooted in 'Nam) was being violated.

[blake510]

McCain will narrow his choice down between 2 contenders and I believe he will choose based on Obama's choice. I think McCain will have Sarah Palin and Charlie Crist on standby until Obama chooses a VP. I think if Obama chooses Clinton or another female, McCain will choose Charlie Crist from Florida. If Obama chooses a Biden, or Dodd, or Webb, or any white male... McCain will go with Sarah Palin in an effort to gather up the femanist supporters of Clinton.