As we now roll into this new year, its hard to imagine that the year is only three weeks old. It seems like New Year's was six months ago. The President has given us a State of the Union address that seemed less impactful than the one he gave a year ago, and the move to send more troops to Iraq is now being greeted with a non-binding resolution from the Senate in opposition to that proposal. Too bad the original Iraq war resolution the Congress passed wasn't also non-binding.
And as for the Presidential race for the White House, you would have to think that the next Presidential election was this coming fall, in 2007, and not almost two years away, in 2008.
There are so many exploratory committees being formed that if Christopher Columbus was around today, he would pass on exploring America because there was too much competition already announced.
Within the first three months of this year, no less than eleven candidates will formally announce for President, and another additional four or five will announce at least exploratory committees - almost Twenty candidates. But most of the attention is focused on the decisions and actions of two, Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.
With Hillary, the issues are clear. The legacy of Bill Clinton, her potential for polarizing the electorate and serving as a lightening rod for the conservative base, and her strength in having substantial resources, a clear and definable base to start from, celebrity status, and a national organization that could probably win the war in Iraq if put to use on that project. With Barack, the lines are not so clearly drawn at this stage, and that is actually one of his strengths. His larger than life persona does appear to answer a hunger for a new, idealistic fresh voice that rises above the fray with no ties to the forces considered to be aggravating the cultural red-blue divide in the country today. But that may also be one of Barack Obama's major liabilities - he's not tested, and he lacks that kind of experience. And please - I don't want to hear one more candidate or supporter of a candidate remind us that Abraham Lincoln had only one elected term as a US Congressman as his experience prior to winning the White House. Abraham Lincoln may arguably be America's greatest President, and it is NOT arguable that he was among the nation's three greatest Presidents (I suggest Washington and Franklin Roosevelt as the other two). Consequently, I believe I can safely assert that among all the candidates running for President on both sides, there are some outstanding candidates. But there are no Abraham Lincolns. Besides, if Lincoln were running today he couldn't get the nomination - it would go to William Seward or Salmon Chase, men who ultimately served in Lincoln's cabinet. No. This time around, if you don't have experience, that will be a liability, and you won't be able to hide behind Abraham Lincoln. Yes, the race is wide open, and here are some early assessments based on the situation today.
Hillary Clinton is still the prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic nomination, and the fact that she has had several opportunities to make major mistakes in strategy and statements in the last few weeks and hasn't taken advantage of any of them should instill more fear in the hearts of her opponents.
Barack Obama will keep the race interesting and position himself as the premier national figure for minorities in America - and he will ultimately have major leverage power within the Democratic Party - but he does not get the nomination. Besides, no African-American can win the Democratic nomination if that candidate trails another White candidate among African-American voters (Hillary leads Obama by 12 points among Black voters). Joe Biden will benefit if Hillary and Obama take the gloves off against each other - something I do not expect to happen. John Edwards will run well, but he really is hurt with Obama in the race and will have to drop out by May of 2008.
Al Gore will wait it out, and if Hillary stumbles badly or drops significantly in the polls, Gore could be persuaded then to enter the race. Bill Richardson is a serious candidate, but with the Democrats having improved their chances in the west so dramatically, and with the Democratic convention being held in Denver in 2008, if Hillary is the nominee, Bill Richardson is almost a lock for Vice President, and his only close competitor would be Mark Warner or should be General Wesley Clark. The only significance now of John Kerry withdrawing from the race is the ultimate decision Ted Kennedy will make as to who he will support. Kennedy had absolutely committed to John Kerry as long as Kerry was running. Kennedy will choose between Hillary, Obama, or Joe Biden. Governor Tom Vilsap of Iowa and Senator Chris Dodd of Connecticut may be gone by Christmas, although Vilsap may stick around to get a "favorite son" endorsement from his home state of Iowa in that state's early primary.
Dennis Kucinich will stay around for most of the race since people who have no chance and are locked at the bottom of the polling always have an easier time staying around if they want - and Kucinich is actually very articulate and his early opposition to the Iraq war will enable him to keep the bar high for the other more serious candidates. Today John McCain is the favorite for the Republican nomination, but his prospects can only go down as Iraq continues to be a problem. Besides, the true Republican base still doesn't trust him. Representative Duncan Hunter of California and Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas will fight each other for the true Christian and southern conservative Republican base, and that nullification could help McCain in the long run. Rudy Guiliani will be formidable, but his opponents will go after him on his liberal social issues, and they will also attempt to dig up scandal in his personal life and possible problems with his business dealings with Bernard Kerick, who declined the position to head up Homeland Security after embarrassing revelations about his business and personal activities.
Senator Chuck Hagel will be the "sleeper" candidate for Republicans, and a nightmare for Guiliani. Hagel can get moderate Republicans and Republicans who oppose the war, and that group would likely support Guiliani because of his liberal social views if Hagel were not in the race. And Newt Gingrich is threatening to run as well, but Democrats cannot count on such gifts to help them through the campaign season. All in all, its going to be an interesting year. For many Americans, the problem is that this is the wrong year - how can we get through 2008 after such a rough and tumble 2007 in a Presidential race that some wish were already over!