San Francisco -- California, it appears, is no longer dreaming. In the wake of this summer's heat wave, which has killed more than 100 people, devastated the state's agricultural economy, and melted down its electrical power system, energy and environmental issues have soared to the top of public concern and awareness. A new poll shows that "Air pollution, global warming and other environmental woes are becoming increasingly important to California voters" -- an unprecedented 85 percent of the voters say that the environment will influence who they vote for this fall for governor.
This reality is reinforced by the fact that, in the fall, Californians will get a chance to vote to put their state on a new energy pathway -- one in which the oil industry is finally forced to pay its fair share of the cost of a transition out of our addiction to oil by funding efficiency and renewables. Proposition 87, the Clean Alternative Energy Act, is leading in the polls, 61 percent to 23 percent. And Californians for the first time overwhelmingly say they want their state to forge its own leadership path on global warming, in the absence of federal leadership. The Clean Alternative Energy Act got another major boost yesterday when the California Federation of Labor endorsed it overwhelmingly, saying "Prop 87 is supported by people fighting to create cleaner air and new jobs for California. The opposition is bankrolled by the oil companies who don't want to pay California their fair share."
So how's this new reality playing politically? The Democratic candidate for governor, State Treasurer Phil Angelides, who has been endorsed by the Sierra Club, has consistently supported environmental protection, and endorses Prop 87. Incumbent Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, however, is competing for the environmental vote. In the past two weeks, he has petitioned President Bush to protect the state's remaining wild forests from logging and roads and has come out swinging against Representative Richard Pombo's proposal to make off-shore oil drilling easier.
Schwarzenegger, short term, is making headway with these stands. In the most recent poll, voters concerned somewhat about the environment were more likely to prefer him over Angelides, whose record is far less well-known. Although Schwarzenegger leads Angelides overall 43 percent to 30 percent in one poll, another poll a week earlier showed Angelides with a 2 percent lead. For an incumbent governor to lead a much less well-known challenger is to be expected -- being below 45 percent, however, is a sign of significant weakness. And Angelides still leads Schwarzenegger among voters who are very concerned about the environment. Schwarzenegger has opposed Prop 87.
Schwarzenegger will not be helped by the continuing loyalty of the White House and the Republican party in Congress to giving more away to the oil industry. Yesterday, the White House held a celebration of the first anniversary of last year's Energy bill. Unfortunately for them, they initially sold the bill, like the pending Pombo drill the coast legislation, as the key to bringing down gas prices. But in the past year, gasoline has soared from $2/gallon to more than $3/gallon.
At the same time, oil companies are announcing even more obscene record profits. The governor's efforts to satisfy both the Californians who are thirsting for a new energy approach and his supporters in the oil industry, who thrive on an outmoded one, is getting to be a bigger and bigger stretch. He may have to choose sides yet.
Angelides's task is to merge the two sources of voter anger on the environment and energy -- the devastating impact of global warming and the soaring price of gasoline. If voters see Prop 87 as the litmus test of whether a candidate is too pro-oil, and if they continue to believe that being pro-oil and being for effective action on energy are incompatible, Angelides would seem to have a major wedge issue to use against the Governor. Will Schwarzenegger be forced to respond by shifting his position on 87?
This year politics in California may be more about the real climate than about the political one.