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Carl Pope

Carl Pope

Posted: October 19, 2010 08:32 PM

Texas Oil Loses a Round

What's Your Reaction:

Californians have begun to vote. There are dozen of important races -- but California's the only state where global-warming policy is actually on the ballot. Two big Texas oil refiners (Valero and Tesoro) linked up with right-wing political forces and the Koch family interests to spend millions putting Prop 23 on the ballot. Prop 23 would, effectively, repeal California's pioneering climate change legislation, AB 32, under the guise of delaying it until the economy recovers. But as the first voters send in their ballots, I'm going to call this -- Prop 23 is going down.

The latest field poll shows that in only a few weeks the polling numbers have moved from a dead heat to an 11-point deficit for Prop 23, which is now getting only 34 percent of the vote. At this stage, ballot measures that don't have a majority almost always lose. Significantly, this was also the week when Valero, Beacon, and Koch needed to make massive television buys if they were going to to turn the tide. They didn't. Instead they went dark -- no television buys at all.  Assemblyman Dan Logue, one of the major political backers of Prop 23, conceded, "The private sector is spread thin. Resources have diminished more than we thought."

Logue's phrase "the private sector" of course, means only "the out-of-state oil industry." Because most of California's private sector, in contrast to the Texans, opposes Prop 23 as the kiss of death for California's clean jobs future. Just yesterday 70 major investment firms declared their opposition to Prop 23, with Deutsche Bank's Kevin Parker saying that Prop 23 would "undermine investors' willingness to invest in the state's renewable energy future." The failure of federal climate legislation makes it "more critical than ever that the states continue to build their own frameworks ... I fear that if Prop. 23 succeeds it will be a signal to other states and the U.S. government" to reverse course on climate change policy.

But even if Prop 23 is headed for defeat, the oil industry still has other irons in the fire. Their backup effort was always Prop 26, which would make it virtually impossible to fund California's clean-energy program simply by making taxpayers, not polluters, underwrite the costs of enforcement and other needed oversight programs. In a state facing an almost impossible fiscal deficit, something like Prop 26 makes even less sense than Prop 23 -- but it's a more complex issue, and it hasn't benefited from the scale of public education that is turning the tide on Prop 23.

So here in California, as everywhere, it's all still too close to call. What matters now is whether we and our friends vote. Vote early, if you can (to "vote often" is illegal, but you can get the same result by encouraging some friends to go to the polls with you).

This time around, it's all about who shows up on Nov 2.

 
 
 

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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Malcolm Hensley
Last of the Reagan Republicans
08:07 PM on 10/20/2010
AB 32 will do what George W. Bush could not do for his friends in big oil give us permanent $5.00+/gal gasoline! Big oil Chevron, Texaco, Shell, and BP know this their analysis know this and that is why they have stayed out of this fight! AB 32 hurts working Californians! The sad thing is from a manufactures point of view this actually hurts our efforts concerning global warming. Jobs that are energy intensive will move from California where we use natural gas to countries that use coal - real smart!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Laurent Wagner
03:56 AM on 10/21/2010
In 2008, OPEC earned $968 billion in net oil export revenues.

Thanks to US, there will be more money for Hezbollah and for Al Qaeda

There will be more money for Iran's Ballistic Missile Programs and for Iran's Nuclear Program
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Malcolm Hensley
Last of the Reagan Republicans
04:29 PM on 10/23/2010
I'm not saying we should not get off of foreign oil! I'm saying energy is a national issue you try and solve it at the local or state level the only export you generate is jobs! Jobs to Texas job to China! We need to move away from oil to natural gas (huge benefits for the environment) and with oil shale we have plenty of it! Use natural gas as a bridge fuel!
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DianneinCA
running forward, laughing...
06:09 PM on 10/20/2010
Totally agree with the authors points. Californians have always been at the front of clean energy movements and must stay there. It is true we are hurting right now, but we will come back stronger and more self-sufficient than ever. We learned a valuable lesson from Enron, NEVER depend on out of state energy sources.

Proud to say I voted (by mail) and was able to convince a friend it was time to vote again. He had not voted in many years. VOTE.
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NewportMac
09:17 PM on 10/20/2010
I highly recommend reading this article before making your decision on Prop 23 | AB32.

President Vaclav Klaus: Climate Control or Freedom?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/10/20/president-vaclav-havel-climate-control-or-freedom/
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Superb1
Marine Viet-Vet.
02:01 PM on 10/20/2010
Just because they lost around doesn't mean that they are not still in the fight.......Now more determined than ever.
mothergrace
If they knock you down, bite 'em on the ankle.
01:55 PM on 10/20/2010
On a related topic-

If you thought Chevron was staying out of the election, not true. They have put their money behind Prop 26, so we have to have a 2/3 vote for fees. This will hamstring the ability of the legislature to implement AB 32 that may require fees on big oil. Clearly, they are planning to circumvent requirements, counting on this to pass so they don't have to clean up or pay for it.

VOTE NO ON PROP 26
12:38 PM on 10/20/2010
I suspect that Ah-nold's vicious public drubbing of the Texas oil interests was a big asset against Prop 13. I'm no big fan of the Governator, but credit where credit is due.
11:19 AM on 10/20/2010
$22,000 from taxpayers so that Arizona couple could decorate their roof with solar panels. Panels were probably made in China.

A Luddite
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
nevergiveup
01:22 PM on 10/20/2010
Watching lots of FOX NOISE, are we? and all those attack ads from corporate America with all the made-up stats and numbers and LIES? Or did you pull that one out of your ear?
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mech126
Science, and government are "NOT" the enemy...
02:24 PM on 10/20/2010
I believe he pulled that from the other end......
10:35 AM on 10/20/2010
Environmental regulations have become a free-for-all of eco-group propaganda and gratuitous litigation. Rules are issued by green-obsessed government do-gooders without mention of long term costs, unemployment or proof of actual environmental benefits.

Using U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) records of U.S. unemployment data, the impact of U.S. environmental regulations upon unemployment can be seen in the 30 years before, and after, the 1970 enviro-policy explosions:
• The average U.S. unemployment rate from 1940 (excluding WWII) to 1970 was 4.5%;
• The average U.S. unemployment rate from 1970 to 2000 was 6%;
• As environmental regulations expanded after 1970, 30-year average unemployment increased by 33.3%.

California voters can delay the California Global Warming Solutions Act (AB 32) by voting for Prop. 23 on November 2nd. Prop. 23 would suspend implementation of AB 32 greenhouse gas controls until the state’s unemployment rate is reduced to below an unemployment rate benchmark of 5.5%.

California’s Prop. 23 benchmarking of future environmental regulations to economic performance (recovery) should be a model for U.S. Government environmental regulations. The “new” U.S. Congress should pass legislation to suspend all pending and future environmental regulations until U.S. unemployment recovers to the post-1970 average of 6.5%. The U.S., and each state, must reset the reckless pace of environmental regulation to an economic benchmark. The so-called ”new green economy” is a green fantasy that should not be a national (or state) priority.
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Laurent Wagner
11:52 AM on 10/20/2010
What are we going to do in 2015?

According to a report by the US Army, oil output may dip causing massive shortages by 2015

General James N Mattis :
"By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day,"

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/apr/11/peak-oil-production-supply
12:26 PM on 10/20/2010
This is an absurd post. What correlation, or cause-and-effect analysis let you spout these numbers in the context of environmental regulation? What about sending jobs overseas or to Mexico or simply global competition. And to say there were no benefits to the environmental regulations (i.e. what gains were made to personal health?) glosses over a lot with just your 3 facts.

All these environmental initiatives take us one step closer to energy independence. And just think what $1,000,000,000,000- the cost of the Iraq war- could have bought us in energy independence?
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alvdh1
01:01 PM on 10/20/2010
ET500,

The actual cost of the 2 unfunded wars will reach $3,000,000,000,000 when equipment replacement and VA medical cost are added to the $1,000,000,000,000. In essence, imagine what $3,000,000,000,000 could have purchased toward renewable energy independence?
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
dawn wetherill
Beacon of truth
10:30 AM on 10/20/2010
Hey Carl, maybe you and your Sierra club friends can have carwashes on the weekends to help bail out your state.
Oh, thats right, you'll just stand there with your hands out pleading " Please Uncle Sam, we only need 20 billion to balance our budget".

I have been to california 6 times or so and loved it. So what is the economic plan for your state?

Taxes and regulations are driving out business left and right.
No new energy production.
Here in Texas we grew 210,000 jobs this year alone, while California lost 120,000 this year alone.
11:18 AM on 10/20/2010
Hey Dawn, you think if we ask the earth really nicely climate change can be put off until the economy gets better?

Hey Dawn, you know what one of the most important emerging industries in the world is? Renewable energy.
01:19 PM on 10/20/2010
Hey, Dawn, here in Texas we have over 1,000,000 people out of work and a budget deficit estimated to be between $11 billion and $18 billion, depending on who you ask. And a governor who's a corrupt numskull who gave away millions from teacher retirement funds to his buddies who gave him money.
10:11 AM on 10/20/2010
One can only shake their head at the sheer incompetence of people who think that raising the cost of energy in a down economy would be a good thing.
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guveqzero
Inventor and Innovator
10:45 AM on 10/20/2010
If jobs in the US is all about cost, our country will not survive the next 10 years, as jobs are continued to be shipped overseas for reasons of cost. You are part of the Walmart crowd, thinking that their lower cost imported products don't take away US jobs. But, an economy of a country has little to do with cost, everything to do with the flow of money. In order for the US to survive, the flow of money must have a greater circulation inside the US. Anything that forces this is good for our economy, while the status quo means the end. Currentlly, money is flowing out of the country at more than a billion dollars a day or going into the pockets of banks and corporations. There is no incentive to hire workers, because they are just not needed for banks and corporations to make money.
11:15 AM on 10/20/2010
The vast majority of that money goes to purchase energy, not manufactured goods. We have vast energy resources that our government keeps us from using. We produce like 3 times as many manufactured goods today than we did 30 years ago. We just do it with fewer people. That isn't a bad thing. To think otherwise is to think that we should be building buildings with our hands and some beach toys since that would really put people to work.
09:39 AM on 10/20/2010
And for the ludites who don't think clean energy means jobs and business:



http://www.azcentral.com/community/glendale/articles/2010/09/10/20100910glendale-peoria-home-solar-installation.html
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Malcolm Hensley
Last of the Reagan Republicans
01:27 AM on 10/25/2010
noaxe397 you open up a solar panel and there is an 8 out of 10 chance those solar cells were made in China with coal!!! Melting silica to make solar cells is very energy intensive!!!! Now you really think installing Chinese made stuff is going to save the Californian economy??? For every installation job (green job) you create because of the high cost of energy you will lose 3 manufacturing jobs!
05:45 PM on 10/25/2010
1. Going forward less coal is needed at the power plants in THIS country.
2. For now, at least it puts installers to work.
3. Those jobs in China would be done in THIS country if we could outlaw the republican party so they won't block clean energy legislation on command from their masters at Koch Industries.

The cost of everything is high when it is new. Look at PCs. Look at any electronic component.

My first VCR cost me $850 dollars in 1982, probably equivalent of $1200 today.

It has to be a complete effort, even if the government has to seed it and then sell it to private industry.

If you try to over analyze every dime and every job, sure it won't make sense.

A hundred years ago they yelled at people "Get a horse" when their automobile was stuck in mud.
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john frodo
armchair expert
09:09 AM on 10/20/2010
Another Kudo to the people of California, changing the world for the better for centuries.
ThatsTheTheWayItIs
religion, ideology, partisanship are delusional
08:30 AM on 10/20/2010
Come on Golden State, vote Green.
07:43 AM on 10/20/2010
Let's hope this signals a return to sanity, or maybe just an awakening of the sleeping middle. Common sense seems to be completely absent in our society today.
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zlohcuc
"Serving millions from atop the Allegheny"
06:42 AM on 10/20/2010
If nothing else there is hope. It is a relief to know that when you put the facts before voters, and say the message a thousand time, some people are smart enough to draw the proper conclusion and make votes count..It is a constant struggle however when you consider the huge volume of dollars spent by special interests to pervert the process.
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Laurent Wagner
06:24 AM on 10/20/2010
The real cost of oil

- 9 700 Americans have been killed and 48 000 wounded since 1967 because of the Middle East.

- There are about 1 300 amputees from Iraq and Afghanistan.
http://www­.medcityne­ws.com/201­0/07/neuro­s-medical-­gets-1-5m-­award-to-p­ain-blocki­ng-device-­for-milita­ry/

- Approximately 250,000 of the 697,000 veterans who served in the 1991 Gulf War are afflicted with enduring chronic multi-symptom illness

- There have been 4 oil crisis followed by 4 economic recessions since 1973.

- Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan could cost $2.4 trillion dollars
According to a Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report published in October 2007, the U.S. wars in Iraq and Afghanistan could cost taxpayers a total of $2.4 trillion dollars by 2017

-
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zlohcuc
"Serving millions from atop the Allegheny"
06:45 AM on 10/20/2010
In some highly elite circles...what you have written would be glibly dismissed as "the cost of doing business"
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StephenBP
What's he building in there?
06:50 AM on 10/20/2010
What a terrible price to pay for the luxury of being able to have easy energy. Conservatives and the uber wealthy and their flocks of followers revel in oversized vehicles and completely unimaginative, non-solar heated homes. Trolls are paid to try and vanquish any attempt to modify the status quo and get people to use the free market to drive down the demand and hence the price of fossil fuels. Got that tea baggers? Use the free market to drive down the demand and therefore the price of fossil fuels. That is the Koch Bros and the Texas oil barons fear.... that people could, if they harnessed their own ingenuity and individuality, drive the fossil fuel billionaire overseers off of their high perches.
bcunnin679
Political Correctness, the enemy of free speech
09:02 AM on 10/20/2010
And you walk to work, correct?