Canaries in the Coal Mine

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity...it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair. - Charles Dickens

The winter of despair, indeed.

In the one calendar month since Obama was elected, the country's third largest bank abruptly broke down and the world's second largest city got blown up. That the president-elect has nevertheless inspired a "spring of hope" at home and abroad is as unbelievable as it is undeniable. After his impressive series of economic conferences, even I (a cheerful skeptic) am starting to believe Obama will overcome this (it's-officially-a) Recession.

The biggest question for me is not whether Obama can deliver (answer: yes he can) but when, and with whose help? Most pundit-buzz-of-the-moment concerns Obama's Cabinet choices: Clinton, Geithner, Holder, etc. The picks are right on the money (so to speak) but do not necessarily account for how things will go, come January. History reminds us that Cabinet members rarely have that significant an impact on a President's fortune. Only 2-3 tend to make a difference, be it positive (e.g. Truman and George Marshall, Clinton and Bob Rubin) or negative (e.g. W and Rumsfeld, LBJ and McNamara). Does anyone know who Ann Veneman is, or know what she did for whom? Rodney Slater? Dick Thornburgh? They're all former Cabinet members, celebrated at the moment of their nominations, who exerted about as much influence as Biden did during Obama's victory run.

For real clues about Obama's chances of success in 2009, look beyond his fancy Cabinet and keep your eyes on these six canaries in the coal mine. They may live in cities other than Washington, speak languages other than English, make money via means other than approval-mongering--but they may just become key players in the new Obama administration. (And yes. If you just scrolled down, you read it right. One is a rapper. Welcome to the epoch of belief.)

p.s. Think I'm wrong? Did I miss someone? Post a comment and let us know.

#1 The Genius from Jixi

OK. We get it. It's the economy, stupid -- and Obama has surrounded himself with some serious smarty-pants to fix it. Treasury Secretary nominee Tim Geithner, NEC Chairman Larry Summers, adviser Paul Volcker, and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke are about as good a Dream Team as you get. But to gauge the fate of Obama's economic recovery efforts next year, keep your eye on Hu Jintao, China's President. Why? Because China holds the notes on about 5% of all United States debts. And as any homeowner can tell you, an unhappy lender can wreak havoc on a fragile borrower (e.g. the US economy) at any time. To stabilize the economy (not to mention providing health care and sparking alternative energy solutions), President Obama is going to need to borrow money. One guess who's sitting on stacks of cash right now? Ding, ding, ding. China. A poor prodigy turned hydraulics engineer (cue E-40's "Poor Man's Hydraulics"), Hu now oversees $1.9T (that's T for trillion) in reserves.

#2 The New E.F. Hutton

To resuscitate the domestic economy, President Obama needs consumers to get excited about domestic spending again. And, with all due respect to the Dream Team aforementioned, the authority on America's pocketbook issues is former waitress turned financial adviser Suze Orman. With six NYT best-sellers, shows on CNBC, PBS, and a regular Oprah gig, the fast-talking lesbian has arguably become America's new E.F. Hutton. Getting the American economy back on track will require more than good monetary policy, trade deals, and (more) economic stimulus. President Obama is going to need Orman to do what his Treasury Secretary probably cannot: get 200M+ American consumers not just to clean up their debt, but return to spending and investing (albeit more prudently than before). When this woman talks about whether to buy that new house, lease that new car, or adopt that new Chihuahua, financially-ailing Americans tend to listen. If Orman can help consumers to straighten up and fly right, Obama will be well on his way to a terrific 2009.

#3 The Brother from Another Mother

They say "good writers borrow; great writers steal." The same might be said of politicians. To pick off some best practices in energy reform, health care, and economic development, President Obama need look no further than Brazil's distinctive President Lula da Silva. Since taking office in 2002, this innovative policy leader has radically transformed his country. Poverty has decreased by almost 20%; some 30% of Brazilian cars now run on sugar instead of pure gasoline; and Da Silva has expanded access to health care to the poor, cutting drug prices by up to 70%. While Clinton, Daschle and others will undoubtedly matter, "Brazil's Obama" (as one newspaper called him) could become one of the president's most important exemplars.

#4 The Frenemy

With the possible exception of FDR, no modern president has been able to rely exclusively on his own party to make major legislative changes. To get big things done, most presidents haven't just "reached across" the aisle; they've "palled around" with members of the other team (think W and Ted Kennedy, Reagan and Tip O'Neill). Odd as it sounds, much of Obama's ultimate success may come down to a 6-foot accountant-turned-doctor, the conservative firebrand Tom Coburn. Coburn is so hard right he doesn't think Newt Gingrich is a real conservative. But while Coburn and Obama's politics differ, the men struck up a special friendship when both were elected to the Senate as outsiders in 2004. Together they co-sponsored a bill on government spending that still stands as Obama's biggest legislative achievement to date. Coburn's cooperation on major changes to energy, taxes, Iraq, and even deficit reduction may ultimately be one of the most critical components to Obama's success.

#5 The Four-Star Stud

As the 60-hour assault on Mumbai reminds us, President Obama will not only have to settle Iraq and Afghanistan but be prepared to handle the "unexpected." Smart advisers like Secretary Gates and Homeland Security Chief Napolitano will matter -- but Admiral Mike Mullen may be the man most capable of procuring military success. Once upon a time, his official title (Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff) was a big deal. But the Bush administration redefined the role of highest-ranking military officer as first Donald Rumsfeld then General David Petraeus became the only voices that mattered in Iraq. In a non-Saddam-centered world where the safety of the United States is still very much at stake, Joint Chiefs Chairman Mullen will be heard. Make no mistake. President Obama will need to consult him about cutting not just Iraq expenses (~$100B a year) but US military expenses in general (~$500B per year).

#6 The Bard

There are very few forces as commercially or psychically powerful as Hip-Hop. Evolving over the last 30 years into a global, billion-dollar industry, Hip-Hop has played an unexpected role in domestic politics for the last three. From Kanye's pronouncement during Hurricane Katrina to Will.i.am's powerful campaign video this year, artists have proven that they can reshape the American political landscape. Sometime next year, the president will inevitably face the question: "Is Obama keeping it real?" For an answer, keep your eye on 26-year-old Dwayne Carter, Jr. -- the international superstar known as Lil Wayne. If New Orleans' Native Son is feeling President Obama (not just symbolically, but on policy), you'll hear it on the radio, on his blog and on TV. A rousing (and rhyming) endorsement could give Obama some politically valuable street cred as he tries to balance tough fiscal realities with the real desire for change in education, the economy and health care. Just think back. Sinatra's continuing endorsement helped keep JFK cool through his early struggles. Let's see if Lil Wayne (and the broader hip hop community) will do the same for BHO.

Comments

[rags33]

Anyone catch Watson on Morning Joe this morning??? If not, keep your eye out for him. He's a refreshing change from the same group of analysts the networks have exhausted for the past nine months...

[jessicaglenn]

he was awesome!! i think he was on again yesterday putting sen dodd in his place. i like this guy a lot. does he have his own show or his own site or someting?

[vdonati]

Fantastic article Carlos. I think it's so important for us to take a deep breath and remember that while we are being inundated with every move Obama makes, a much larger mass of people are going to be influencing his presidency; ourselves included. And with all of the scrutiny that seems to come with every decision, even the hint of a decision, it's also refreshing to remember that these choices aren't going to make or break his presidency nor do we need to make sweeping generalizations about his character based upon them. Keep up the good work, would love to see more!

[appleknocker]

Rubin? Positive?

[Jaklin]

#7 The Footballer.
Besides borrowing money, Mr. Obama will need to attract more European investment and keep European investors interested. In the year of 2000, European direct investment in the US had reached $900 billion (against less than $650 billion of American direct investment in Europe); European multi-nationals owned a large number of iconic American products, including Brooks Brothers, Random House, Kent cigarettes, Birds Eye and the Los Angeles Dodgers.
In the past years, what was really driving the two continents apart was growing disagreement about "values" (in the words of Le Monde,"the transatlantic community of values is crumbling".) America was starting to look very alien to the Europeans. On the other hand, the European countries were still quite unfamiliar with one another. The one thing that truly united Europe was football (a.k.a soccer.) What intellectuals couldn"t achieve even with the Derrida-Habermas (two of Europe"s best know writers/philosophers/intellectuals) initiative in 2003 - a wake-up call for Europe to forge a distinctive European stance in world affairs, might have been achieved by David Beckham (an English player of moderate technical gifts but a big talent for self-promotion) - even after Beckham"s embarrassing performance on both continents " the enthusiasm of his fans keeps growing.
And, as in syllogism: Football is the only object of European public attention, David Beckham is a footballer, and therefore David Beckham is the Obama's man.

[LeonBNJ]

These and many other people like them are going to be critical commetators and influences to make the changes we individualy and our government needs to do, to bring in new ideas and to deal with the many challange we face.

[Queenofthedamned]

Stewart and Colbert SO belong on this list. There are virtually no other persons in regularly scheduled media who so incisively speak truth to power.

[Jeep]

Dude! I got flack when I told my husband "Hip hop will never die." Nice to hear someone else on the same wavelength. With respect to the rest: you are way ahead of me. I learned something today. GREAT ARTICLE.

[periwinkleblu91]

Suze Orman? I don't know, she always sounds a bit too happy that the economy is tanking. This is a fun addition to theHP, fun, conversational, thought provoking.

It's interesting to see that Obama is pulling from all sides of the aisle. When comparing the article in the LA Times March 1990, when BO became the editor in chief of the Harvard Law Review, http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/thedailymirror/2008/09/barack-obama-ha.html, it seems he's learned how to take the doubters and turn them into contributors. I wonder what Derrick Bell thinks now, after his quote in the above article "While I applaud Obama's achievement, I guess I am not as hopeful for what this will mean for other blacks at Harvard." What about now Professor Bell?

[Prof OHNS]

I love the hard hitting, quick minded insight and comparisons. I think this commentary has a hip but erudite feel to it-- raising the points that you don't hear 8 times per day on the news show. It is articles like this that keep me coming back to HP-- please continue to serve us more of this!

[jsbarnett]

As usual, a really great overview from C.W. I've been thinking in the past few days during all these cabinet nominations, will we be talking in 6 months about how there are too many brilliant people on board, they're going to kill each other! It's helpful to get a grasp on other folks that will be on the street team. I gotta say, you're right that good old Suze may be "helping" in the next couple years more than the Washington folks might imagine. But yeah, we probably didn't need to be reminded of her sexual orientation.I guess it just slipped through the last read-through! An otherwise terrific lay out for us. Keep 'em coming.

[sheckydiamond]

Great article, great writing style. Lots of foresight in the political arena. Look forward to future articles.

[omaina]

Great article! Sensible and sensitive.

[anonymous13]

This is so fascinating. I didn't know any of that about Da Silva, and I consider myself pretty well informed. Thanks, HP!

[burkina]

theses are bold predictions. I'm looking forward to seeing what comes next.

[koondog]

Interesting takes, particularly the Li'l Wayne choice. No question, BHO faces enormous challenges and from the looks of his choices for his administration he must have incredible confidence in his ability to bring about real change with this bunch of veteran Establishment/Beltway insiders. But one thing that would get his face added to Mt. Rushmore and turn all red states to blue would be for him to persuade the powers that be in college football to scrap the BCS and institute a playoff system to determine a true national champion. Now THAT is the change we need. Can you imagine the cognitive dissonance all through the Midwest and deep South if Obama leaned on the small group of creeps who are keeping the football fans of the country hostage to their crummy, increasingly irrelevant bowl games (Granddaddy of the All, isn't it time you simply went away and let the Rose Parade do the heavy lifting to promote living in So Cal?). USC v. Penn State? Who cares? Sorry for getting off track here. Great article, as usual.