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Carrie Sheffield

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The Lessons Of Coakley's Loss For The Midterms

Posted: 01/19/10 10:53 PM ET

BOSTON--Scott Brown's unexpected victory in the special Senate election here indicates voter unease with the political status quo -- it's a development that should force Democrats to rethink their national strategy, particularly on health care messaging, heading into November.

Progressive labor, environmental, women's and other groups burned through an estimated $5 million on the race, with the Democratic Party alone spending more than $1 million. Organizing for America, the elaborate voter contact framework erected during Obama's campaign, sent multiple emails and text messages to the party faithful, pleas that ultimately proved ineffective.

This leaves strategists to question whether Obama's perceived neglect of the progressive base doomed this race from the beginning. Many progressives have been furious about Obama's positions on a publicly-funded health care option and abortion funding, ignoring broader economic issues.

"People made the race about health care, about Ted Kennedy," said Ryan Rudominer, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. "I think folks also want to know, what are you going to do for jobs? The contrast wasn't made, it seems."

Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., pointed out to reporters Monday that GOP Washington establishment leaders like Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Minority Leader John Boehner were largely quarantined from Brown's campaign, indication that the GOP brand in Massachusetts and nationwide is still in doubt. Yet Democrats say Coakley didn't effectively exploit this fact.

"Scott Brown did not run as a Republican. The Republican label was not used in Browns' paid media or messaging," Rudominer said. "Brown did not have Republican surrogates campaign for him. Brown event kept former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney off the campaign trail."

Rudominer said the Coakley campaign lost control of its messaging, allowing Brown to run as a populist hiding his ideological roots and ties to the people responsible for the economic meltdown of 2008. He said House Democrats wouldn't make the same mistake.

"When Democrats are aggressive and they define their Republican opponents early on, Democrats win. You can't let a charge against any Democrat go unanswered," Rudominer said. "Washington Republicans are certain to over play this and delude themselves into thinking their damaged brand is back-which they do at their own peril."

Democrats were quick to characterize the race between Brown and Coakley as a devolution into a personality contest with the charismatic candidate trumping the lackluster one to the detriment of policy issues.

Yet Democrats held back no punches, pouring money and bringing in their biggest personalities, from Obama to former President Bill Clinton, to defend a seat that had remained in Democratic hands for nearly six decades, including nearly 47 under liberal lion Ted Kennedy.

Brown was also able to surpass Coakley in online social networks, a key indicator of voter enthusiasm.

"Perhaps the Coakley folks may have gone to sleep on that," said Rudominer, who pointed out that his committee maintains the strongest metrics on social networks of the four House and Senate campaign committees.

For their part, Republicans say they feel the wind behind their backs and plan to focus their November strategy on health care.

"Win or lose, Democrats will try to play this race off as an isolated incident, but the recent spate of polling in swing districts across the country proves that Massachusetts isn't the exception of the 2010 election cycle, its the rule," said Ken Spain, a spokesman for the National Congressional Campaign Committee. "Any Dem who voted for the healthcare bill now knows how big of an albatross they will have hanging around their necks."

Brian Walsh, spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said the GOP was in good shape before Brown's unexpected surge.

"Massachusetts aside, Republican candidates as of January 1 were or are ahead in the polls in six Democrat-controlled states (Nevada, North Dakota, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Colorado and Arkansas) and tied in Illinois where Rep. Mark Kirk is our likely nominee," Walsh emailed to The Huffington Post. "Similarly, in the open seat that we're defending, we are ahead in all of them (New Hampshire, Ohio, Kentucky, and Florida) and tied in Missouri. Not coincidentally, in every one of these states, polls show that a majority of voters disapprove of the Democrats health care bill."


Read more reactions from HuffPost bloggers to the Massachusetts special election


 
 
 
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12:07 PM on 01/21/2010
"This leaves strategists to question whether Obama's perceived neglect of the progressive base doomed this race from the beginning."

Um, Carrie, it wasn't progressives who propelled a Republican into a Bay State senate seat for the first time since 1972, never mind Ted Kennedy's! It was Independents. The same Independents who propelled Obama into office last year, and Christie, McDonnell and now Brown into their offices this year. They're sending a message, see? Like they sent to the GOP last year?

Independents giveth, and Independents taketh away. If you believe the quoted statement above, then you really haven't learned anything. Neither have the progressives who believe Brown was elected because Obama didn't swing hard left enough. He swung too hard left! The REAL lesson here is one Bill Clinton profferred nearly twenty years ago to great success: "It's the economy, stupid!" The electorate wants jobs, not multi-trillion dollar progressive bills in the middle of a depression!
09:00 AM on 01/21/2010
". "Brown did not have Republican surrogates campaign for him."

When did Rudy Giuliani change party affiliation?
01:46 AM on 01/21/2010
Of the three primary Democrats Rep Mike Capuano had the energy and the fire in his belly to best take on Brown, and possibly get the ethnic bump that was needed to win. Unfortunately two vanity political novices crowded out the field and Coakley came first over three guys. Notice to those self made millionaires that think the first elective office they should attain is that of Senator- please choose the Republican party.
04:58 AM on 01/20/2010
Insightful article, thanks.
11:32 PM on 01/19/2010
Strategists are wondering if Obama's perceived neglect of the progressive base doomed the race? OMG! You think Coakley lost because she didn't play to the progressives? How about maybe considering that maybe, just maybe her being too far left of center might have lost it? Maybe she lost the unaffiliated voter because things are maybe just a little too far left? No, no, no... let's find some other reason!
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12:17 AM on 01/20/2010
Here's the deal. Obama ran on progressive ideology including health care with a government option. The majority of America voted for such an agenda. The "good" that was afraid of it's enemy, the perfect, was simply not good enough. You will see a sharp left turn in the near future.
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OLJW00
right is right
04:55 PM on 01/20/2010
America may have voted for him - but they didn't really realize how far-left he was and are now showing a sever case of buyers remorse.

If you think the answer is to move further left I won't stop you but I think it's entirely the wrong direction to go.
07:54 PM on 01/20/2010
Obama ran as "anything but Bush" and many of the Senate/House gains were won by fiscally conservative democrats. To think that the 2008 elections were some sweeping progressive mandate is insane. Obama told you what you wanted to hear and got your vote-
09:13 AM on 01/21/2010
I think that President Obama's take on the election was the most original reason:


"Here's my assessment of not just the vote in Massachusetts, but the mood around the country: the same thing that swept Scott Brown into office swept me into office, People are angry and they are frustrated. Not just because of what's happened in the last year or two years, but what's happened over the last eight years."

So let me get this straight.
1. Tuesday, in Liberal Massachusetts
2. The Democratic and Independent voters
3. Who have always voted for Democratic candidates
4. Voted for a Conservative Republican
5. Because they are dissatisfied with the Bush - Cheney administration.

WOW! I sure missed that angle!
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11:52 PM on 01/22/2010
More relevant are those voters that stayed home because campaign promises have to date been thrown away like garbage.
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Rmtns
Republican't is what it is
11:07 PM on 01/19/2010
What this race shows is that the Dems have lost the independents by running a poor candidate, and damaged her by following the DLC's perceived mandate. We need to govern, not be namby pamby. In other words, Obama, grow a pair, or get yours out of Rahm's purse!
08:00 PM on 01/20/2010
Just another person who can't understand the mood of the average voter in this country. When Massachusettes loses a Senate seat to a Republican it is way more that a poor candidate.

This "poor candidate" won a hotly contested democratic primary for a very valuable seat that has been held by a democrat since the 50's. Sure she fell asleep at the wheel afterwards but being up 30 points going into the Christmas season can do that, and nobody thought she could lose at that time.
08:30 AM on 01/21/2010
The "average" voter in this country wants health care reform, just not the watered-down version that they are trying to pass right now. The mood of the country is that the people want their elected leaders to do what they were elected to do, not that everyone wants to move backward again.