People who work in the markets often talk about leading economic indicators. These are certain economic statistics that give you an indication of where the markets are going in the future. They are leading indicators of what is to come.
I believe there are also political leading indicators. When conservatives started organizing grassroots campaigns thirty years ago (or more, depending on how you count), they were not in power. They weren't even close to power. They seemed like malcontent outsiders who would never break into the mainstream.
The people who dismissed them at the time were wrong, not because they had much of an impact then but because the critics didn't grasp that the movement had to be seen outside of its current time. You can't judge a movement by the present, you have to take into account its past and its future to truly understand its significance.
Currently, the political blogs are seen as agitators and outsiders. That's true now. But that doesn't mean it will stay true through all of time. In fact, not only do blogs have a bright future, but they are an indication of what the future might hold for the whole political system.
People who read blogs are among the most politically educated people in the country. They care to know what's happening in current events and politics. So, they knew there was no link between Al Qaeda and Iraq well before the general population. Not because they were privy to some secret information, but because they cared to find out right away.
The facts always catch up to the American people. But sometimes it takes awhile. Bush didn't earn his 30% approval rating over the last year and a half, he did that in the last five and a half years. It just took awhile for the general population to catch up to what the bloggers and blog readers already knew about.
The first two seasons of Survivor might have been the best, but the following seasons were better rated -- because it takes awhile for everybody to catch on. The earlier albums of Bob Dylan might have been better, but the later albums sold more -- because it takes awhile for everybody to catch on (by the way, I know nothing about music, so I made up this fact, but I'm sure that's true for 9 out of 10 bands (well, I'm as sure as somebody who knows nothing about it can be)).
There are leading indicators in every field. It's of course a little difficult to find out what they are exactly. If it was easy, we could all see where the future is going. But I think in politics, it's a little easier because blogs are a great free market test of ideas, ideologies and policy.
There didn't have to be more liberal blogs and liberal blog readers than conservative blogs and their readers. In fact, my understanding is that the conservative blogs had a head start. But the liberal blogs caught on fire because there was a discontent among the people who had the information -- this administration was clearly headed in the wrong direction.
In fact, that information turned a lot of former Republicans like myself, Arianna Huffington, Glenn Greenwald and many others into so-called "liberal" bloggers. That's because blogs are leading political indicators. We had the info the rest of the country would have in a couple of years. It takes awhile for everybody to catch on.
I think even if the blogs are not quite the powerhouse they are hyped up to be right now, they will have a lot more impact in the coming years and decades. They are not the present, they are the future.
But even more importantly, they are an indication of the country's political future. They give you an indication of what people will think once they have all the info (that the bloggers already have). At this time, this clearly does not bode well for the Republican Party or the conservative movement, but it won't necessarily always stay that way.
Despite what a lot of people think, the mainstream bloggers (that's a funny new phrase, too) are not knee-jerk liberals, and they are certainly miles away from being Democratic Party loyalists. They are independent and do not suffer fools gladly. If the facts indicate that the current political parties are behaving differently, I am sure that the blogs will reflect that change. The Democratic Party does not pay their bills, hence, they are not beholden to them. They only have a commitment to their readers, who expect to be given the facts and be given them quickly.
So, I think we will soon find out that as blogs go, so goes the country.