Hillary Must Win in New Hampshire
Hillary Clinton is a juggernaut. You're not going to get past her with one lucky punch. Obama might have knocked her down last night, but it's going to take three of those knockdowns before she is down for the count.
Here's the problem for Senator Clinton: She already has one strike in Iowa and South Carolina is a guaranteed third strike (yes, I just mixed my sports analogies, but roll with the punches (yes, I guess that pun was intended)).
I could be wrong, but I doubt it. I'm calling South Carolina for Obama now. Let's get real. About fifty percent of South Carolina Democratic primary voters are black. If they thought Obama wasn't viable, they would seriously consider Senator Clinton. But now that Obama is on the precipice of winning this thing, no way he doesn't get a gigantic portion of the African-American vote.
As Chris Rock said when he was introducing Obama at the Apollo recently, "[You] want to be on the right side of history, because you'd be real embarrassed if he won and you wasn't down with it. 'Oh man, I can't call him now. I [voted for] that white lady. What was I thinking? What was I thinking?!'"
So, I guess it's really Chris Rock calling South Carolina for Barack Obama. He might be kidding, but what he's talking about is very real. So, it would be a major surprise if Obama lost South Carolina with this kind of momentum.
So, that leaves New Hampshire. That also makes this do or die for Hillary Clinton. Even she can't lose three in a row and survive. If she loses New Hampshire, this thing is over.
Follow Cenk Uygur on Twitter: www.twitter.com/TheYoungTurks
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Basically, I think Hillary has the old FOB crowd and a bunch of corporate money. But, the people just don't find her likeable. Is this really the person you want to listen to as President on TV everynight for the next four years. I don't think so. There isn't much difference between ten minutes of Hillary and fingernails on a chalkboard.
Since I'm rooting for Obama, I hate to argue with your premise, but, it's got a big flaw.
Numbers.
Specifially, the number of delegates in California, Nevada, Colorado, (my hands getting tired already) only Florida doen't count, thanks to them screwing something up. (what's new) All it would take is... (never mind. I won't suggest ways to derail Obama's candidacy) but, we've all seen it happen. It can come from the media, the ballot box, and sometimes shit just happens. But, more importantly, the reason to not focus on the outcome is so you can revel in the process. A new America isn't about one man and one party taking power, it's about the people of America getting together to make something happen.
Will you call your skeptical friends and spend hours trying to get them to blow past their conspiracy theories and make something happen if you know who'll win?
Fear doesn't cause anger, it causes paralysis.
All of us are angry, looking back on the last generation of waste. Watching the Ameircan dream get kidnapped by big business is like watching your child getting punched by some strange adult.
Anger, when it's fresh can be motivating.
The beauty of music is it explains the nature of the human experience on such a fundamental level. What you hear as one note is actually many. And when you pluck a string, others vibrate in sympathy. But, the best part is you can never duplicate or predict the exact event, ever.
It's time to motivate America to seek out the solutions to the things we can change, and to finally give up trying to change things we can't. That's going to take a lot of getting together, and talking, and working, and all the things you do to get somebody elected.
NOW IS THE TIME to care what's next in getting our country back: proud, but humble; strong, but free; courageous, AND principled.
If we elect the right person to be our President, we can have these things we want.
Obama in '08
(FIRE IT UP, I'm ready!)
Cenk get on the band wagon.....
Cenk, et al - It is ridiculous to think that Clinton would be done if she lost both NH and SC.
She is not timid enuf to quit even if blown out in both states. That's not going to happen, and she has a mountain of cash.
Obama's performance in fund raising and in IA is impressive, even miraculous, but ...
as of 5 Jan, Clinton still has raised more money and has more convention delegates. And she will on 6 Mar.
It's far from over, either way.
Did anyone hear her excuses the day after Iowa? She said she "never was the front-runner and one opponent had been in Iowa more than a year , and one was from a neighboring state". Oh, really? Which neighboring state was that? Illinois? And where was Hillary born and raised? Chicago? What state is that in?
It's over now. I'm calling the presidency for Obama.
As Cenk said, if he wins New Hampshire he'll win the nomination. And, he will win New Hampshire as we'll see in 4 days. He's got all the momentum And, it's not a case of people in New Hampshire just following what the people in Iowa told them to do - that's where the media gets it wrong.
What Iowa's win did was give Obama all the free air time he needed to make a historic victory speech. And, Hillary got to go in front of the whole world and look like a beaten fighter and she gave a bland speech of some sort. No way that this doesn't end her campaign (unless Obama has a major unforeseen stumble of some sort).
So, with the New Hampshire win, Obama will get the nomination. And, after looking at the turnout numbers in Iowa it seems impossible that he won't win the presidency. More voters in red state Iowa chose to come out to vote for a Democrat. The same will happen in November. It's as obvious as anything.
Of course, the media has to sell the campaign as the biggest story of '08, so they'll try to come up with reasons and scenarios where this is a tight race that's up in the air. Nonsense, they'll be bullshitting as much as they always do. The game is over.
Obama is your next president. And, if he makes Biden his choice for VP then it's gonna be a landslide.
Chris Rock said it? Wow. I knew you Young Turks used only the most insightful analysts, and this proves it!
Next: Dane Cook on Bhutto.
I am not a Hillary supporter but I wouldn't count her and Bill out just yet. They are supreme stragetist if nothing else and probably have some plan cooking right now. I hope New Hampshire gives John Edwards a victory because he is the best of three. I would love to see the look of shock from the media if Ron Paul won N.H.
No, she shouldn't give up if she loses all 3, neither should Edwards. Nor should Obama if he loses the next two.
It's not right that these small unrepresentative states with a paucity of urban voters decide who the nominees are for the entire country.
The campaign must continue through February 5th when we have Super Duper Tuesday.
We must end this madness where two or three small states decide the nominee for everyone.
When are the pundits going to start confronting the issue of how the primaries being front-loaded favors the previously well-known contender -- the one who was considered the presumptive nominee when the process started -- over ANY possible challenger or upstart, even one that might be at least somewhat well-known before the campaign began?
Obama could very well demonstrate his superior strength AS A CANDIDATE, w/ voters who are familiar w/ the candidates & have heard a lot (both + and -) about them -- winning not only Iowa but New Hampshire & S Carolina as well. This isn't a far-fetched prediction, & indeed, Obama may be at least an even bet to do just that. (Of course, the results in MI, FL, and NV are another matter).
But then comes Tsunami Tuesday ("TT" for short). Here, the inertia of the campaign is given full swing, and even the momentum built up by Obama with three major victories in the heavily campaigned-in states would leave him at a disadvantage in what amounts to essentially a national primary.
Curiously, the circumstances in MI and FL, the two LARGEST states to vote before TT, is such as specifically to PRECLUDE major campaigning on the part of any candidate that doesn't want to outrage the Democratic Party establishment; hence they are more like the TT states than the 'big three' of January. ALL OF THESE FACTORS SEEM TO FAVOR THE CANDIDACY OF HRC, ALMOST INSURMOUNTABLY, AND ALL ARE PREDICTABLE RESULTS OF THE WAY THAT THE NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY SET UP THE ELECTIONS.
It's time for the grass-roots and net-roots Democrats to start SERIOUSLY grappling with this issue. If this setup insures an HRC nomination, as it seems clearly to have been intended to do, AND THEN SHE LOSES, I think that progressives will REALLY have to think seriously about completely overhauling the Democratic Party. And no more dancing to the tune of the DLC and their 'why doesn't the Democratic Party dump its pro-choice platform?'(Al From) after the 2004 elections.
Her votes in the senate giving authorization to a pathological liar to wage an unjustified war against Iraq is finally come home to haunt her.
She mistakenly thought those misguided votes would make her look strong in the general election but she pulled that trigger prematurely as she had to first get past liberal democratic primary voters.
And we might have forgiven her early vote supporting the war but her recent vote for the Kyl/Lieberman Bill put her over the top and made her just another warmongering republican.
Thank goodness Obama came to the rescue and saved the Democratic Party from becoming irrelevant and a mirror image of the neocons.
I don't know how any American can vote for someone who voted for the Patriot Act.
I don't know....
Remember what happened at the last televised Democratic debate? You know the one. The one that Hillary had to win in order to regain her aura of inevitablity?
When the Clinton's see the headlights, things have a way of working out in their favor...
Amen to everything you said, Cenk. If Obama beats Hillary soundly on Tuesday, it's all over.
Man, I'm going to really miss you on Air America on XM.
Go NH! You can stop the phony campaign of HRC!
What does she stand for? A health care plan which would penalize those least able to pay for one while enriching insurance cos.
What has she accomplished? Who knows.
What is her vision for the future? Being elected and not much else.
Is she a leader? All we've seen her do is cave to the vile repigs.
Do we need or want her? HELL NO!
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