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It's the Derivatives, Stupid

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Free market fundamentalists say the real problem with our financial sector is that they are over-regulated. If we just let the banks regulate themselves that we wouldn't have any problems. Rush Limbaugh says Goldman Sachs is the victim. The government caused the problems with all of their rules and regulations.

Interesting. Would Rush go to a Las Vegas casino that wasn't regulated by the government? Would any of you? Would you trust that the casinos will regulate themselves? Don't worry, they won't fix the roulette table or cheat on any of the games because of the invisible hand of the free market. There's an invisible hand alright, it's the one reaching into your pocket.

If the casinos set their own rules and the government never checked in on them to see if they were cheating, only absolute suckers of the world would go to those casinos. Unfortunately, that's exactly the situation we have right now in our financial sector.

First, everyone understands regular derivatives that hedge your own assets or securities have a place in the financial world. They're basically insurance and have been around a long time. Second, everyone understands that free markets are very good at certain things like setting prices in well-functioning markets. But we also understand that the government has a role, such as barring monopolies and making sure our food supply is safe. At least, most rational people understand that.

The situation we have now in our top banks though is not normal market conditions with traditional derivatives. Most of the current staple of complex derivatives have no underlying assets. That means it's just one guy betting against another in a deal where neither one of them has a stake in the original transaction. Some of these are called naked credit default swaps. And they are in fact naked gambling. I don't know anyone who disputes that.

The derivatives market is now valued at $605 trillion. Except no one really quite knows the real number because most of these transactions are done in secret. So, this is beyond a shadow of a doubt the largest casino in the history of the world. Except the government doesn't check in on it all and most of the bets are done behind closed doors. That is a recipe for a disaster of epic proportions.

We have no idea if these banks have anywhere near the collateral they need to pay off any of these bets if they are on the losing end of the deal. Even Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is in a panic over collateral on their $63 billion dollars worth of derivatives. If Berkshire doesn't have the collateral, who does? My guess is absolutely no one.

If you force the banks to list their derivatives bets, the entire market will be exposed as a dangerous fraud with not nearly enough capital to sustain the magnitude of the bets. If you don't list the bets in public, then they will only get larger and blow up on us again, causing another worldwide meltdown. This is an economic catastrophe waiting to happen.

And today the Republicans blocked financial reform debate for a third time. The GOP is a wholly owned subsidiary of corporate America. We have to stop treating them as honest actors. The Democrats usually do a hideous job of calling them out on this, partly because they're afraid that they will also be exposed as corporate shills.

The media is wholly negligent in covering this issue and politics in general. When is the last time you heard on CNN that a politician was voting based on his corporate contributions? The politicians are largely driven by lobbyist money and that factor is almost never mentioned on television. Our political press is a joke. No wonder we have no idea the magnitude of the problem and what's causing it.

So, let me break it down real simple for you - it's the derivatives, stupid. The entire world GDP is a little over $60 trillion. The secret, unregulated casino market of derivatives is worth $605 trillion. Now, who thinks that makes sense? The banks are running a casino that is ten times the size of the world economy - and it is completely unchecked.

If you're paying a lick of attention, you'll see that spells economic doom. There is an iceberg straight ahead. We're headed right for it, as some idiots continue to argue that we should let the banks regulate themselves. Trust them; their secret bets will magically work themselves out. As any gambler knows, that's not usually how large, unchecked bets work out. They usually wind up as disasters.

I'm afraid we're headed for the great cratering. The whole financial system is a sandcastle built in the sky. And it's about to rain. The whole thing is going to crater in on itself. It's time to stop treating the bankers and their Republican (and Democratic) protectors as legitimate actors. They're the ones that have set up this calamity. It is way past time to hold them accountable instead of playing political games with them.

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Free market fundamentalists say the real problem with our financial sector is that they are over-regulated. If we just let the banks regulate themselves that we wouldn't have any problems. Rush Limbau...
Free market fundamentalists say the real problem with our financial sector is that they are over-regulated. If we just let the banks regulate themselves that we wouldn't have any problems. Rush Limbau...
 
 
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09:41 PM on 04/30/2010
SET UP A COMMISSION TO CLEAN UP THE DERIVATIVE MESS!

The public deficitm is PEANUTS compared to the derivative monster.

A COMMISSION SHOULD BE SET UP TO CLEAN UP THE DERIVATIVE MESS.
11:59 AM on 04/30/2010
It's funny how the problem that got us into this mess is get a free ride with their bailout. The fed gives then almost free money at 0.25% and then will turn around and buy it back at 3.5% - in the end the banks refill their reserves even though most should be closed due to their irresponsibility.

The FDIC helps appox. 4-5 banks that close each week. If that doesn't tell you the story I don't know what will. Check it out.
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cgeorgan
Proud American-Canadian Libertarian
11:36 AM on 04/30/2010
Mr. Uygur, free market fundamentalists do NOT think that the financial sector is "over regulated". What they believe is that it is *incorrectly regulated*.

This is a typical straw man argument, whereby the author begins a discussion with a false premise, then proceeds to dismantle the false premise based on the "merits" of his own argument.
yappnmutt
humping legs for liberty
02:14 PM on 04/29/2010
while the gdp metric is pertinent the two most telling metrics are 1) the value of known assets in the world is around 200 trillion to as high as 400 trillion dollars. the nominal amount of derivatives outstanding far exceeds the value of the whole world. 2) the world economy blows up if only .5% of these instruments blows up and must be converted to cash.
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11:56 AM on 04/29/2010
govt involvement is the problem not the solution particurally putting the same govt officials in power to regulate this that either were asleep at the switch or activily engaged in creating the problem.
You claim that the GOP is in the pocket of Wall Street. How much did Goldman give to Obama? Of hedge fund managers what percentage of their contributions went to Democrats vs Republicans.

If there is fraud then word gets out. If you want to hire a mechanic and your neighbors warn you to avoid Pete's down the road then Pete loses business and eventually must close. Pete has every incentive to treat his customers fairly. The same is true for banks. Will fraud still happen? Of course it can never be eradicated. Even under the totalitarian boot of the Soviets fraud and corruption was rampant, so much so that their national leaders would even admit that it was a part of Soviet life.

Govt is the sole source of monopolies. There can be no monopoly without govt intervention. To say that the govt protects us from monopolies is naive. Why do we have no door to door mail service other than teh USPS? The govt prohibits it. If you want to open any number of businesses large or small you may be required to get a permit which has the effect of creating a monopoly.
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USMAMule
12:47 PM on 04/29/2010
You sir are an idiot.
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01:06 PM on 04/29/2010
such a well crafted counter-point. You must have been a formidable opponent on the debate team.
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gurukalehuru
cwtc7
01:18 PM on 04/29/2010
Comparing large banks and financial corporations with Pete the Mechanic is about like that Nevada Senatorial candidate who suggested that you could pay for your health care with a couple of chickens.
The world no longer works that way, RightWingMarine, and it hasn't for a very long time.
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GrumpyGrandpa
A '60's liberal who didn't sell out
11:20 AM on 04/29/2010
Cenk's last three paragraph are the ones that should cause anyone with two brain cells to rub together to issue a primal scream and then vomit all over themselves. A casino that is gambling with 10 times the total Gross Domestic Product of the WORLD. Some respected economists have been saying that, if we do nothing else in this securities regulation reform, we MUST get control of the derivatives market. How the voting public let this happen is obvious. They let the siren song of the 'free market' neo-liberal capitalists of the Milton Friedman/University of Chicago School of (Voodoo) Freakonomics boys soo them up on the rocks of an economic collapse.
We really were lucky. And I mean that as no disrespect to the people who are having such a hard time with money and unemployment. But the Great Crash of 2008 could have been SO much worse. If it had been allowed to run just a few weeks longer, the casinos...er...I mean banks, wouldn't have been able to cover their bets. That would have brought the domino crash of the world financial system that would have left us back in the Medieval system of currency. But as Cenk says, unless we do something, that was only previews of coming attractions.
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rbenjamin
Rule 5 rules
09:54 AM on 04/29/2010
The derivatives market has effectively flooded the world economy with counterfeit money.
07:47 AM on 04/29/2010
What happens when half of these default?

I'm not sure. They're not tied to anything. Do they only cause trouble to the extent that they allow someone to borrow against them, creating a problem in the financial system if that guy loses the bet and defaults?

The key question is how are they actually tied to the financial system in such a way that will affect it, when roughly half (losers of each bet) default?

The answer is, either they affect the real financial system in such a way that it will be destroyed, or they are really irrelevant. Which?
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Cactusman
Persons of Cactus, Unite!
06:52 AM on 04/29/2010
Isn't the supposed $605 trillion "value" of derivatives a meaningless number in most regards? It's like Zimbabwe's inflation rate of a million percent or whatever it is. It's so high that it means nothing in the real world. It might as well be ten million percent, or a billion percent for all the difference it makes to the typical Zimbabwean. So isn't a "theoretical value" of $605 trillion in derivatives similarly meaningless to the average person in America?

What matters is our ability to grow food, produce energy and other goods, obtain clean water, breathe fresh air, and feel connected in the world. Derivatives? Pfft. Seriously, why should we worry about this stuff, when more direct and material concerns are looming, such as massive oil spills in the Gulf of Mexico or ecocide via climate change, to name just a few?

Our belief in this sick system needs to evolve to something different. I know this is sort of a simplistic dismissal on the issue, but I question how seriously I should take "derivatives" in the face of genuine social and ecological crises. "Derivatives" are fake. Clean water and a livable planet and healthy people are not.
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jcaunter
Profile: schizoid, INTJ, IQ145
03:47 AM on 04/29/2010
Now, I'm pretty smart, but I just spent hour reading this: http://www.safehaven.com/article/15906/sultans-of-swap-explaining-605-trillion-of-derivatives and I still don't completely understand it. I'm going to be looking at that damned thing all night. What I do know though, is that it looks bad. Really bad.

I was going to reply to the author of this post that focusing on CDOs is wrong since the bankers would just find new ways to scam "money" (labor and assets) out of the rest of us, but now I think he has the right of it. CDOs will ruin us all.

The only solution I can see is that banks and financial institutions only be allowed only a small WHITE LIST of financial transaction, and that all transactions not specifically enumerated by the government on this white list are BANNED. Unless CDOs are reined in harshly and my white list proposal is enacted into law, I can only see a short and unhappy future of spectacular economic booms and even more spectacular economic busts for the world.
02:28 AM on 04/29/2010
If you force the banks to list their derivatives bets, the entire market will be exposed as a dangerous fraud with not nearly enough capital to sustain the magnitude of the bets. If you don't list the bets in public, then they will only get larger and blow up on us again, causing another worldwide meltdown. This is an economic catastrophe waiting to happen.
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Yes, but be warned. Due to such things as algorithmic trading, high frequency trading and dark pools you will not get the transparency you are looking for.
Derivatives are ideal for fraud, there opaqueness invites fraud, in fact, I think they have been specifically designed to permit fraud. The economic value, i.e. their contribution to the economy, is zero.

The best and safest way to get rid of this mess is by outlawing all derivatives (except forwards).
02:23 AM on 04/29/2010
First, everyone understands regular derivatives that hedge your own assets or securities have a place in the financial world. They're basically insurance and have been around a long time. Second, everyone understands that free markets are very good at certain things like setting prices in well-functioning markets.
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I think you are wrong with both assumptions. Declaring them things that 'everyone knows' doesn't make them true.
Regular derivatives like what? Options, futures, etc are to a large degree used to specualte on price swings without any interest in the underlying. This is what drives prices up and introduces instability. Derivatives are completly useless in terms of contribution to the economy, the only exception to that is the futures contract, which is OTC and really is useful to hedge against price swings. Only the CDS could honestly be called insurance, because that's exactly what it is.
Second, 'free markets' are good a setting prices. Really? Unfortunately, there is no such thing as a 'free' market, because any market will always be subject to multiple constraints, such as limitation of the number of suppliers or purchasers, government regulation, etc. which lead by definition to price 'distortions'.
Also you don't make it clear why in addition to 'free markets' you would need an additional concept of 'well-functioning markets'. Obviously, in your view free markets are not automatically well-functioning markets, but why is a free market the ideal solution then?
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acudoc
01:24 AM on 04/29/2010
Let the system crater! Those who lost speculative bets while diluting the purchasing power of our money should fail!

We need honest banks, and an archetypal currency denominated in gold or silver grams to keep them honest. Banks, Wall Street or otherwise, should not be allowed to leverage money, period. Loans should be made only from savings. Prices will adjust down naturally and interest rates will float freely, rising to attract capital for future growth.

I know people think gold-backed money is hopelessly archaic (all the textbooks in our government run schools say so), but it would return purchasing power to producers and yank it away from the parasites of finance and from the war-mongering politicos who finance their misadventures with monopoly money.

(A commenter laughed at my statements a few days ago, pointing out that there were bank runs and crises galore when we were on the gold system during the 19th century. It wasn't a failure of gold or specie-backed money, however, but of the artificial and fraudulent creation of credit that exceeded the gold or specie banks held---and the failures weren't systemic but localized. Fractional-reserve lending is the culprit, a practice which the jurists of the Roman Republic understood as fraud. That understanding was relinquished during the years of the Empire, when their band of monetary extortionists, like ours, arrogantly decided how much money the empire needed to function. The hubris of monetary and political "experts" knows no bounds.)
03:29 AM on 04/29/2010
Why on earth should the world's economy depend on the amount of element 79 that can be extracted from the rocks? It has no more intrinsic value than anything else, and a lot less than food in a time of famine or medicine in a time of plague. Or, as the Fabulous Furry Freak Brothers used to say: "Drugs will get you through times of no money better than money will get you through times of no drugs."
07:38 AM on 04/29/2010
Why is a gold standard better than a 'goods and services' standard (which is really what we are on)?

Think about it.
12:39 AM on 04/29/2010
The Hawaii State Legislature has passed a resolution that tips over the first domino to ending corporate personhood. Corporate “personhood” is the judicial heartworm by which corporations have been able to utterly dominate our society – claiming that the civil rights enshrined in their status as “persons” entitles them to spend massive amounts of money buying our politicians and our elections. We now have before us a direct legal remedy to that outrage.

From Hawaii this resolution goes to the President and Vice President of the United States, to the Speaker of the House, and to Hawaii’s Congressional Delegation. The only good thing about that is it will then be on the national radar. It would still require two thirds approval in both houses of Congress and then three quarters of all state legislatures to become law, so we are a long way from the goal line. But the roar of peasants with pitchforks is being heard in the corporate boardrooms and if Hawaii can do it, so can other state. Our biggest export before Obama was carved coconut faces.
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SmileAndActNice
Utilitarianism, the -ism that works.
12:54 AM on 04/29/2010
It isn't just corporate "person hood". The entire concept of the Limited Liability Corporation ( LLC ) invites shenanigans.

If you borrow $1,000,000.00 you have to pay it back. Bankruptcy courts will go after everything you have to pay it back. But if you form an LLC, and it borrows $1,000,000.00, and it pays you and two other owners "salary" of 300,000.00 each and spends 100,000.00 on whatever the LLC is officially supposed to be doing ... and then the LLC defaults on its loans ... the courts can't take the money out of your pocket.

If Owner's were held accountable for their companies debts you'd see a lot less casino behavior. You gamble a lot less wildly when your own money is on the line.
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wetdentist
09:32 AM on 04/29/2010
but then Donald Trump probably wouldn't have his TV shows!
03:34 AM on 04/29/2010
Good for Hawaii! It had to start somewhere! Now, where's my pitchfork?
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Joe Brothers
Sept. 12, 2009 "We the
12:35 AM on 04/29/2010
Cenk, please stop making sense. You might actually accomplish something that the Republican and Democrats have failed to accomplish - real reform.