Osama bin Laden Is a Dead Man
Almost exactly three years ago I predicted the death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. And a month later he was dead. Sometimes you can see the handwriting on the wall. Zarqawi had gotten careless and had also turned the local population against him, which I figured would eventually catch up with him. And it did. Now, I see similar handwriting on the wall for Osama bin Laden.
Here are the clues that Osama's days are numbered:
1. In one of his latest tapes, he was asking for donations to his cause. This is not something that was part of the regular fare before. If they're desperate enough to attach that to a threat that was otherwise bragging about how they're going to rip us apart, then they might be running low on cash. It doesn't sound very menacing to beg for a handout. If they're running low on funds, then they could be in a world of trouble.
2. The Pakistani army is moving into South Waziristan as we speak. They've already cleared out the Swat valley. Bin Laden was so nervous about that, that he did a tape on the intricacies of Pakistani politics, railing against specific politicians and their strategic goals. Gee, I wonder why he knows so much about Pakistan and cares so much about the army's movement into these tribal areas. He hears footsteps.
3. The Taliban who have traditionally protected Al Qaeda leadership have alienated the local population in Pakistan by carrying out a series of terrorist attacks against respected tribal leaders and innocent civilians. When you lose the local population, you're living on borrowed time.
4. We have a smart president. In the seven years after 9/11, the Bush administration could not for the life of them get the Pakistani government to move against the Taliban or Al Qaeda, who had taken shelter in northern Pakistan. They got almost no results in rooting out those forces from the Swat and Waziristan areas. I don't know if it's because they didn't know what they were doing or it was because they didn't really care to try.
But now we have a president who actually cares to get the job done and apparently knows how to do it. I say that because of the facts on the ground. A Pakistani government that was considered weak and ineffectual in the five months since Obama's inauguration has somehow been able to muster up a massive campaign against the Taliban and Al Qaeda in the north. I don't know what the Obama administration did behind the scenes to get this done, but they did it. They got results.
So, now Al Qaeda is being squeezed from the north in Afghanistan and from the south in Pakistan. They might be running out of money and out of options. They have lost the good will of their hosts and might be in some serious trouble here. So, given these circumstances, I'm willing to go out on a limb again and say I think Osama bin Laden will be killed or captured within the year (killed is far more likely; he might even die of natural causes as he attempts to flee the area in deteriorating health). If the Pakistani army blazes through South Waziristan the way they did in Swat, it might be quicker than that.
One final prediction -- if this does come to fruition, the right-wing in America will fervently claim that Barack Obama had nothing to do with it and that any Republican president could have done the same, despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
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I doubt he's alive or at least functioning. The missives over the past many years have lacked something I can't quite put my finger on. Authentication, maybe? Bush needed him as a bogeyman and I would not be shocked if I learned he was a paid agent. Notice the story of his funding having shriveled after Bush left office? By now, he's more likely a composite of figures, just like the shadowy alQaida, which consists more of mirrors than humans.
I hope you're right brother!
I'll be delighted when bin Laden gets what's coming to him, but it will be a visceral pleasure. He has been of little operational significance for many years. He is a figurehead, the Col. Sanders of Islamic Terrorism if you will. Does anybody think that cartoon is still really frying the chicken? Both East and West find great utility in the bin Laden icon, and it be useful long after he's dead - but only as a symbol.
Whether or not your prediction does come true and soon, It is my belief that the Bush Administration could have gotten the job done if they had wanted to. The real question is did they want to. With Sadam it was a matter of bragging rights to get him, so they worked as quickly as they could to do it. With Osama they had a different plan in mind. They felt he did them more good on the loose so that they could keep Americans pliable. Without an external enemy to use as a bogeyman it wouldn't have been as easy to misuse their power to effect the damnable violations of our rights. How better to do so. In addition they were able to rob us blind and drive us into a recession in which they continue to enrich themselves. I would say for the Bush cabal it was a win/ win scenario.
Cenk-- It is hard to find full transcripts of bin Laden speeches, just the cherry picked excerpts-- but what I read at http://www.memri.org/bin/latestnews.cgi?ID=SD238209 didn't seem as desperate as you portrary. His 6/3 tape appears an attempt to lay the groundwork for a long struggle in Pakistan, not immediate action.
bin Laden has value in many ways to many people. To neocons he is a boogyman who generated public fear to be manipulated. For the Wahhabi he is setting the stage for the madrasa in the Swat valley to prey on refugees-- which for SA royals, has the side benefit of drawing the radicals out of their country to focus on other areas. If he is killed he would possibly be more valuable to islamists as a martyr-- which would be a huge problem for Pakistan.
Just as Obama has not gone charging into the Iranian revolution, he isn't likely to have BL captured and given a world microphone, or martyred. Obama would also likely realize that eliminating BL will leave islamists without a their own "Ronald Reagan" spokesmodel/star, and that the likely way for someone else to fill that vacuum would be crimes like 9/11
As far as asking for money, it could be desperation, or it could be the psychological tendency of people to associate more strongly with causes in which they invest-- as the televangelist con men know well.
Who really wants OBL dead?
Good piece. I really hope this administration finds him.
Oh come on! Does anyone really believe Osama bin Ladin is living in the boondocks or even a nearby city? The Pakistanis airlifted him out of the Bagram base just before it fell to the Americans.
If he is still alive he is living in a major city with good medical facilities such as dialyisis machines.
What I'd like to know is what kind of cave has electricity - alternating current - to where he can run a tape machine or a camcorder and create all these tapes from? To me that suggests that he's in a fairly large city, not out amongst the goat herders. Where else would he have access to electricity?
At any rate, I think we'll know when we're getting close to him because there'll be diversionary bombings elsewhere, might be some large targets too. Don't expect him to lay down like Saddam did. He's going to go out with a bang - probably literally.
A portable generator is not all that expensive (I'm pretty sure I could buy one from Home Depot without significantly denting my savings), assuming he doesn't just smuggle camcorder batteries in and the tapes/discs out to be edited outside, assuming he doesn't also smuggle in some laptop batteries and have it edited there.
Another factor is that the Pakistani army as part of this campaign is just beginning to learn how to do counterinsurgency against. The Pakistani army up to recently has been equipped and trained to fight a large ground war against India, much as the US Army had for decades beeen equipped to fight big battles. Which is why they wiped the Iraqi army so completely but then wound up being ham-handed in handling the insurgency. But now the Pakistani army is learning how to do precision strikes against individual locations rather than artillery barrages of entire towns.
I am not sure if he is dead or alive. he could be alive but under protective custody, living in some remote with his hiram. He is out of the picture and the bad guys using his name and fake voice to basically justify the wars and killings.
Bin Laden is a major embarrassment to the Pakistan regime. I'm betting they'd love to draw a bead on him and make thier lives easier. The army, however, has high-ranking officers who have been protecting him.
I bet the regime wins.
We now have a U.S. President that has a higher approval rating in the Middle East than O.B.L. Not saying much for Bush is it.?
Palin supporter: they only like him cause his daddy was a Mooooooselem.
I really hope the GOP picks her in 2012 just so Obama wins in a landslide......i was only 1 when Reagan crushed Mondale so i dont remember that election all to well.
How, exactly, is a high approval rating in the Middle East a good thing? Being a friend of terrorists just doesn't seem like a good way to go about business.
That being said, the original post - trying to imply that Pakistan is only now engaging the Taliban because of president 0bama is insane. The Taliban were not carrying out terrorist attacks on Pakistan until much more recently. The Pakistan government was caught in the middle when the attacks started happening within their own borders. They had to do something to keep from losing their own government in a coup/civil war. Self preservation has nothing to do with our president.
I was unaware that everyone in the Middle East was a terrorist, or even a terrorist sympathizer. I thought that most people in the ME were people who wanted peace just like everyone else and would prefer to do things diplomatically, but were often co-opted by leaders who supported terrorists.
In fact, I thought that the Iranian election pretty much underlined that the people who approved of Obama in the ME were the ones who were trying to reform the current Iranian regime in favor of one with more freedoms and a more diplomatic relationship with the West. But maybe I'm missing something, I suppose.
As for Bush having less support than Bin Laden, that's really obvious: OBL killed a lot of Americans for no justifiable reason and was eventually planning on killing a lot of MEers, while the Bush Administration killed tons more MErs than OBL did Americans, also for no justifiable reason, and planned to keep doing it for at least a decade.
Wow - a genuine FAUX "news" watcher. Thanks for sharing your talking points. Your incredibly inane comment about "being a friend of terrorists" implies that ALL people in the ME are terrorists which is EXACTLY what the Bush Administration did. Lumped the entire ME into one nasty little package and treated them with disdain. NOW, amazingly, we have a President who understands that, just like every other region in the world, there are violent factions that work within that region and not all ME citizens are a part of it. Showing that clear understanding has helped us in that region and might just keep doing so if the neocons will just stay out of the way. They had their turn and blew it.
Mr Uygur you have impressed me. Thanks for this essay.
I tend to agree here that Bin Ladens days are numbered, he has alienated locals and being a bit short of cash is just adding to his worries.
President Obama in my view is the very person to take on these hurdles and he certainly shows a cast iron will and commitment to his country and the world. Not sure about the comments that Osama is already dead though, although he would probably welcome this belief.
http://www.citylocal.co.uk/cities/GlasgowSouth/
Hopefully, Osama will be worm food as he predicts, but after that is all said and done, the question begs to be asked: Does his death change the dynamics in the AQ war against western civilization ?
I think not.
He will move from being the most revered living icon in many Muslin countries to the most revered martyr in many Muslin countries.
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