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Why McCain Has Caught Obama and What Obama Can Do About It
There are two principal reasons why John McCain has caught Barack Obama in the national polls. 1) McCain has changed the whole conversation about this election into one question - do you want to vote for or against Obama? This is genius. Obama needs to switch the conversation if he wants to win. 2) Obama has only played defense so far and has not attacked at all. This is weakness and a sure-fire way to lose an election.
The question in this election should be whether Americans want another four years of Republican rule. We just went through a disastrous eight years and the Republican nominee agrees with the president who brought us that disaster on nearly every single issue. McCain wants even more tax cuts, even more war, even more rights for oil companies and even larger deficits. Do the American people want four more years of that?
Instead, right now the only conversation is about whether Obama is qualified to be president or not. I think McCain's ads in this regard have been comical. They have flat-out sucked. But that doesn't matter. Because the only thing that matters is the conversation itself.
If Obama doesn't change the topic, he gives up an enormous advantage he has, which is the American people are grossly dissatisfied with the Republican Party (even the chairman of the NRCC is telling Republican Congressman to run away from their own party). Make the election about Republicans.
Secondly, Obama has not attacked at all. This is the same mistake Kerry made. He could have pounded Bush for all of his mistakes; instead he hardly laid a glove on him because he wanted to run a positive campaign. That's ridiculous.
There is a difference between hard hitting ads and negative campaigning. In my mind, negative campaigning is when you make stuff up about the other guy (like McCain did about Obama not visiting the troops in Germany because he couldn't bring cameras) or go after him personally (like McCain did when he compared Obama to Britney Spears). But going after your opponent's record isn't negative campaigning; it's explaining why it's a bad idea to vote for the other guy. That is part and parcel of a political campaign.
Should McCain go after Barack Obama for flip-flopping on FISA and off-shore drilling? Absolutely. There's nothing negative or unfair about that. He is pointing out his opponent's weaknesses. He would be negligent if he didn't (but don't worry, he will; I guarantee you will see an offshore drilling flip-flop ad within the week).
Should Obama go after McCain for voting with Bush 95% of time last year and 100% of the time this year? He would be an absolute idiot if he doesn't. Who cares about the nuances? That's not what voters remember. They'll remember that McCain voted with Bush almost all of the time, for whatever reason.
Obama wins simply by having this conversation. If the question is -- does John McCain blindly follow George Bush -- Obama doesn't even need to win that debate. He wins simply by having that debate. What is stuck in people's mind is how much McCain voted with Bush.
The Obama team should take this clip from The O'Reilly Factor, where McCain says he is so proud of doing everything he possibly could to get George Bush elected twice, and run it on a loop a million times over. Here is the money quote from the interview:
MCCAIN: I voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004 ... And not only that, far more important than a vote, I campaigned everywhere in America for him ... I enjoyed it. I campaigned with him. I did everything I could to get him elected and reelected president.
Here is the simplest campaign ad of all time: Show all of Bush's failures and then run McCain saying, "I did everything I could to get him elected."
I did everything I could to get him elected. I did everything I could to get him elected. I did everything I could to get him elected. I did everything I could to get him elected.
Then there is the famous quote of McCain saying he doesn't know much about the economy. What is Obama waiting for? Run this on a loop until people say, "Ok, ok, I get it, McCain doesn't know anything about the economy. Leave the poor guy alone already."
If they don't have this kind of killer instinct, they will run a stupid, mushy campaign that will get rolled over by the Rove acolytes and wonder how they got their lunch money taken again.
And by the way, they are well on their way to doing this already. The offshore drilling flip-flop was a disaster. You undermine all of your arguments, all of your surrogates and give away your strength when you agree with the other side. Watch this clip for a full understanding of why this type of concession is the best way to lose an election.
Americans want a politician who is strong. That doesn't mean a politician willing to start more wars or one who mindlessly brags about being tough on national security. It means someone who is willing to stand their ground. This is in fact almost the sole reason why Bush won the presidency twice. This was his only true advantage.
I will give you an indisputable example. John Kerry won Wisconsin in 2004 by one point. Russ Feingold voted against the Patriot Act, voted against nearly every measure that the Bush administration said was vital to protecting our national security and stood up for civil liberties when it was not in the least bit in vogue. The original Patriot Act vote was 99-1. Feingold was that 1.
Republicans said he was weak on national security, he endangered the country and cared about terrorists' rights. He won in Wisconsin in 2004 by 11 points.
Kerry won by a margin of 11,000 votes in that same year in that same state. Feingold won by a margin of 331,000 votes!
Yes, I know he was an incumbent, but so was Tom Daschle. The good people of Wisconsin voted for Feingold not because they thought he was weak on national security as the Republicans claimed but because they thought he was strong on principle. They were right.
This is the politics of strength. You stand firm. You punch the other guy in the face. You don't back down from a fight and you don't cede any ground.
If Obama doesn't learn to stand his ground and take some serious swings at his opponent, he -- and the rest of us -- will be sitting around on November 5th shaking our heads wondering what the hell happened. How could we have lost to these incompetetents? How could the American people have voted for these frauds and failures again? Well, that's because you never told them how much of a fraud and failure the Republican Party, George Bush and John McCain were!
Yes, I just called John McCain a fraud and a failure. He has switched his position on everything from tax cuts to immigration to torture. He has done this to appease the rabid Republican base. He is a fraud. He has supported the failing Bush policies of the last eight years lock, stock and barrel. He has aided and abetted Bush while he screwed up in Iraq, in New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina and in running our budget and our economy into the ground. John McCain is a miserable failure.
Can you imagine the Obama campaign saying any of this? That's right, you can't. And that's exactly why I'm afraid they are going to lose this election if they keep heading in this direction. I don't know if they know this, but they are running against McCain. He is their opponent. Their job is to defeat him. To beat him. To make him lose, and hence, become a loser.
This isn't some esoteric campaign of Barack Obama versus history. That's what the McCain camp wants. This is a real political fight between two real people. And until Obama realizes that and gets in the fight, he is not going to win. Take a swing, for the love of God. Show the American people you can be a man, a strong leader, someone who can knock an opponent down. This is an election dammit. Act like it.
Follow Cenk Uygur on Twitter: www.twitter.com/TheYoungTurks
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A-freaking-men. Start showing more teeth, Senator Obama. For the love of God, please! You are our only hope for a sensible future...
eight years ago when the neocon, bushrovian republicans managed to hijack the white house and take control of congress, they made a carefully calculated decision to risk that they could take political greed and criminality to previously undreamed of levels and get away with it -- in fact, they completely tossed the "status quo" political rulebook into the oval office fireplace along with the Constitution and the Bill of Rights --
gore didn't fight back nearly as hard as he should have in 2000 --
kerry couldn't be bothered to fight back in 2004 --
and now obama appears to be once again engineering another semi-plausible defeat for 2008 --
am i the only person in america to see a pattern developing here? -- the democratic party has seemingly either been bought, blackmailed or both -- the bush cartel has, after all, had six years now to eavesdrop on every skeleton-in-the-closet or family secret that any opposition politician might be desperate to keep private -- j edgar hoover illegally employed this tactic against his political enemies and kept his job for 40 years and five presidents --
has our two-party system of governance completely broken down under the weight of greed and corruption?
it sure is beginning to look that way, or, am i just succumbing to paranoia?
Not paranoid. Bush actually began expanding surveillance before 9/11. This crew has so much power and they do not want to give one inch of it up.
The only thing i can think of to offset this feeling is to get out to Obama HQ and do what needs doing. i enjoyed canvassing (once) & other things in the primary. Now i have to get back out there. We've got to have a triple turnout.
And yes, Obama should do what Truman did.
from Wikipedia:
during the 1948 Presidential election campaign a supporter yelled out, "Give 'em Hell, Harry!". Truman replied, "I don't give them Hell. I just tell the truth about them and they think it's Hell."
Maybe we could borrow this slogan from his campaign--apparently Truman's supporters would yell "give em hell, Harry!"
"Give 'em hell, Obama!"
Can Obama please kick some ass already?!!
I was all ready to be pissed about this blog. I hate the fact that we are told that Obama is loosing ground. In these times of buying any kind of numbers you need, I naturally doubt any ‘Objective’ data. And simply assume it all to be tainted by the Repugs. Kind of like Fox being your only news source.
But you make a great point. I think you are 100% correct. Strong does not mean vicious or immoral, it means noble or as they say simply doing the right thing when it is hard.
Senator Obama, you need to stand toe to toe with Senator McCain and beat him over the head with is voting record and his flip-flops and most of all his love of and service to Bushco. You might hammer him on private jets and $500 shoes also. It doesn’t have to be nasty, hell you can thank him for his service to his country and then explain he is wrong on so many levels and we need something Correct (Not Right).
Thank you and I support this comment.
I totally agree with this Blog. Being professorial is wonderful and inspiring to the "faithful" but doesn't put a dent in the rest of the voters.
McC's ads are demeaning and attempting to make O'bama look silly. Most independents will not vote for a candidate whom they view as weak or silly or unwilling to defend himself against the inane. The American public is not the same as the Democratic public...they have to be convinced that this man is strong enough to defend THEM and when he doesn't even defend himself, he undermines his own credibility.
It's time O'bama stops referring to McC as "honorable" and giving him a pass on the negativity. It's clear that the Repubs have no intention of waging a campaign that is any different from their ugly and vicious campaigns of the past.
It really IS time to take off the gloves and go on the offensive. Call the lies for what they are...LIES. Enough is enough, and the Repubs have truely crossed the line and done so with impunity. It's time to take a position and stick with it, for good or ill. And time to call McC for what HE is...incompetent to be President.
Sounds like we could use a little bit of the Clinton attitude.
CENK...he just blasted McKeatingFive over his millions donated from oil companies...keep up buddy1 i do agree he could do a bit more...i mean lets pull out McCains troop voting record, the last time he showed up to work....etc
P.S. Congrats on the ingagment...another good one lost *sigh*
Great article but the one thing I disagree with is the off shore drilling excerpt. One thing people DON'T want anymore is someone like Bush who was too stubborn to access other views and look at what would be the right thing to do a nd most of all COMPROMISE. Obama is showing his bipartisan bonafides and wants to get away from the "my way or the highway" Bush tactics.
He is terrified of giving the repubs an opening to portray him as an "angry black guy" (see rev Wright) and is accordingly running a milquetoast campaign.
I hope the Obama Campaign listens to your arguments. Unfortunately making nice doesn't get candidates elected in the USA.
McCain's message and party is old, tired and dangerous. Democrats need to seize this opportunity and take it to the White House.
I really miss the seemingly instant responses and ads Obama did in the primary. It was if he was engaged and acting on the impulse to get it straight. Now it appears like there can be several news cycles before any response is given and the message isn't as clear as before. Is it because he see the whole dem organization as the weight he carries? He is getting too close to losing those he started with because we don't want McCain but we cannot stop the others who don't get the right message nor believe the truth from voting like they did for Bush 2.
I agree, it is time to strike back. I would love to see an ad that identified McCain's tactics for what they are, and might get some of the boomer and older generation to take notice of it and reconsider their opinions. I can picture the visuals, morphing from current to historic footage, and back again:
John Mc Cain has questioned Obama's patriotism, committment to the troops, loyalty to our country, and priorities.
A hard-hitting, US Senator J. McC. publicly questioned the patriotism of others. He questions people's loyalty to our country, their dedication to our military, and their committment to our democratic principles. He's not afraid to publicly accuse others of undermining our nation's security and success.
Fortunately, Senator McCarthy was finally shown to be nothing more than a mean spirited manipulator in a personal persuit of power. He was brought down finally by Army attorney Joseph Welch who asked this question, "Let us not assassinate this lad further, Senator.... You've done enough. Have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last?"
It is sad, but McCain will win because just like Obama couldn't knock out the girl with out the help of the DNC there is no way he will knock out McCain, unless Dems try skewer voting results by "fixing" electonic voting machines in Obama's favor. His only chance is to add Hillary to the ticket and he is to arrogant and hateful to do that.
It could be that Obama & his campaign are too occupied with the move to the center to create ads criticizing McCain. While BHO's energy proposals are interesting, criticizing McCain's nuke energy proposals wouldn't hurt. McCain is a flawed candidate. Obama should tell us what McCain's flaws are to cut through McCain's spin.
Cenk, i completely agree with you and I think you re spot on, obama needs to grow some, I love him, and I will vote for him no matter what, but he needs to start call john mccain out on all these things and getting assertive surrogates out there!! NOWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW before we wake up and he is on that list of failed democratic nominees thelist is too long and the country can not afford it . SENATOR PLEASE START GETTING TOUGH, YOU CAN BE ADMIRABLE WHEN YOU GET IN OFFICE!!!
Don't you remember? It's a new kind of politics.
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