THE BLOG

Demographic Groups and Votes, 2008

11/10/2008 12:48 pm ET | Updated May 25, 2011

Exits08vs04.png
A first look at how groups lined up in the presidential election.  Almost all groups shifted in a Democratic direction. In that sense the Obama win as very much "across the board".  The exceptions: Small towns, late deciders and (interestingly) gays. Gay support was still highly pro-Democratic, just not has high as it was in 2004. (Exit polls found 4% self-identified as gay, lesbian or bisexual and the vote split was 70-27 for Obama.)

There were few significant shifts in the relative ordering of group support, which is some evidence that no substantial restructuring of electoral alignments. If such a restructuring is to occur, it will be during the next four years, not from Tuesday's voting patterns.
Exits08vs04b.png
For easy legibility, here is an ordering of groups based on 2008 margin:
Exit2008GroupDotplot.png
And here are groups sorted by amount of change in the group's vote margin from 2004 to 2008:
Exit2008GroupDotplot2.png

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