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National Forces in State Polls

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A next-to-last day of polling update on national forces. After a bit of a dip in the state-polls based trend, the net is flat or a little up over the last week.  The black state-trend is based on all state polls, and reflect the tendency of state polls to move in the same direction as national polls (the gray line). There are complications because the state polls are far from a random sample of states, but the qualitative agreement between the two trends is striking.

States respond to national forces as well as to local conditions and local campaigns.

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