Updated: I've now posted a less hasty look at the data. Change "bad news" to "mixed news". There is some good and some bad for both Owens and Hoffman. Still a tossup is the best characterization. The new post is here. I stand by the bad news mentioned here: Owens is not doing well among independents, and the new post shows Dems are defecting at 25%. So the headline here doesn't need to change. On the other hand, there are some weaknesses for Hoffman (and opportunities for Owens) among the Scozzafava voters, which I take up in the new post. ---charles
This is a quick note on the new Siena poll in light of Scozzafava dropping out.
Can Owens pick up from Scozzafava supporters? Not so likely given these poll results.
Owens Fav/Unfav among Scozzafava suppporters: 19/50
Hoffman Fav/Unfav among Scozzafava supporters: 15/57
Looks like a wash with many likely to skip the choice of two disliked alternatives.
And the worse news for Owens is among independents:
Ind. Fav/Unfav Owens: 39/47
Ind. Fav/Unfav Hoffman: 47/33
More after daughter's soccer game!