New Report: Ron Paul Third In Iowa?

The following piece is published on Iowa Independent as well as HuffPost's OffTheBus.

In the past week, momentum in Iowa's GOP caucuses has shifted significantly. Gov. Mitt Romney, who had an apparent stranglehold on the 2008 caucuses through the summer and fall, has found himself in the midst of a true fight.

Today, in the second round of Iowa Independent's Republican Power Rankings, we seek again to answer the question, "If the Iowa Caucuses were held tonight, what would be their results?"

We caution our readers that our methodology is wholly unscientific. Our rankings are based on impressions we received from activists, politicos, and caucus-goers along with our gut feelings and guesses. We hope that as our readers follow the always unpredictable Iowa horse race from day to day, they will keep this list in mind as a useful perspective from reporters on the ground across the state.

If the caucuses were held tonight, these are the results we would predict:

First Place

Mike Huckabee -- Upward Momentum -- Huckabee's meteoric rise came late enough in the campaign that many had already written him off, but even his skeptics here appear to be giving him a second look. His support, cultivated by time and resources spent largely in Western Iowa while the media was busy elsewhere watching other candidates over the past several months, is solid. And the organizational disadvantage he faced compared to former Gov. Mitt Romney appears to be diminishing. Huckabee is the new Iowa frontrunner.

Second Place

Mitt Romney -- Counterintuitively, it seems, Huckabee's rise had little to do with Romney's own campaign. He still makes few mistakes and is as skilled a politician as any presidential candidate from either party. Most of Iowa's political heavy-hitters continue to stand by him. But rank-and-file caucus-goers, many of whom remained undecided up until this point, appear to be breaking in Huckabee's favor. Romney's support among these voters, which was fairly soft to begin with, is slowly shrinking.

Third Place

Ron Paul -- The more we think about it, the more we conclude that none of the remaining candidates on this list have a strong base of support the way Rep. Paul does. His unlikely coalition of supporters does not include many typical caucus-goers, but they are devoted. And to top it all off, the campaign appears to be fairly well organized here, with paid calls, visibility (television, radio, billboards), and direct outreach efforts. Much about the Paul campaign will remain up in the air until caucus night, but a third place finish would certainly raise some eyebrows heading into New Hampshire.

Fourth Place

Rudy Giuliani -- Although Giuliani's positions on social issues do not line up with those of many of his supporters, he is widely perceived as the most electable candidate in the race, and that's a concern in the minds of many GOP voters. But aside from that, he appears to have little going for him here, where he has spent little time or money to build an organization.

Fifth Place

Fred Thompson -- Thompson has spent very little time in Iowa building relationships, and the time that he has spent here was not particularly effective. Iowans still need to hear Thompson say why he wants to be president, because to many of them, that answer remains unclear.

Sixth Place

(tie) John McCain -- Downward Momentum -- From all appearances, McCain has nearly abandoned Iowa, whether he has said so publicly or not. His hold-out supporters may be growing restless, and we have not been cut in on any of his recent TV ad buys. If the caucuses were held tonight, we are not sure he would even show up here.

(tie) Tom Tancredo -- Tancredo is campaigning here, still hoping to capitalize on the politics of immigration. And he is up on TV here, which never hurts.

Comments

[Galvestonians for Dr. Ron Paul]

Ron Paul supporters:
BEHOLD THE TIME HAS COME,

You will now see the media drop bombs, one right after the other..
You will see hidden popular supporters come to life, using their earned trust and confidence of their viewers and followers, to roll this movement into the history books!

Yes, ALL Americans from ALL walks of life have committed to Rons campaign..­.This is what makes us so strong!
This is also what makes our military strong and this is what makes our country strong..
IT IS US!! ALL OF US!!!
THE PEOPLE!
Our rallies and meet ups go so well because we have that one thing in common that makes us this way....
TOLERANCE OF ALL!
We have "hard core" conservative Republicans joining with pro-choice "raging" liberals..
We have Jews and Cathoilics­...We have drug users and police..
We have firefighters and most likely, arsonists!!
We have Atheists and Evangelica­ls..
We have environmentalists and animal rights activists.
We are ALL! WE ARE EVERYONE!

WE ARE AMERICANS! THEREFORE, WE ARE DIFFERENT!

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2007/12/mainstream-medi.html

Watch this master play the ignorant media like a finely tuned fiddle.
See the true power the people hold...
This will be HUGE.
THIS IS HUGE!
THIS IS REAL!

NOW we will witness how a "true" politician uses the very power others are trying to erode.
You will see the others squirm and stumble!
They will have NO SOLID GROUND to stand on!
Their votes have been cast and their decision which side to choose, has been made..
The others have chosen the wrong side (less Kucinich).
Ron has, and always will choose the side of the people.
That will be the ultimate choice, for his victory.

THE TIME TO UNVEIL OUR MASSIVE NUMBERS HAS COME!

[NewHampshire]

The problem I have with these Huckabee numbers is, you don't go from 3% to 39% without some help from the CFR-controlled media.

It's a phony surge with no fundraising numbers to back it up.

I find it shocking that they would use theology to ramp up the nwo....foo­ling religious conservatives.

[BurgersandFries]

I disagree with Ron Paul about many things, but I'd still rather vote for him than any of these sorry Democrats. Besides, the Republican establishment loathes Ron Paul.

[RuthlessDictator]

This is I can remember that I finally don't have to hold my nose and vote for the lesser of two evils. He is the greatest statesman since Thomas Jefferson. The (almost) perfect candidate. I believe America has been given a gift. America rea lly blew it with Bush. Please don't let this happen again!

[cognate]

Ron Paul will help us roll back the imperialist warfare - welfare mess.

[mellene]

He may be a Libertarian but he is plain spoken and says what the people want from their government.

[Dendroica]

There is a more than adequate reason for this: the rest have all collapsed.

It isn't that Paul is so great, no, far from it. It is that everyone else is a charlatan and a liar, incompetent and worthless. Now that the media are finally paying attention, we can see that this field is not much better than the man they are trying to replace.

[vippy]

If one is honest, consistent and respects the constitution we get more than we have in 50 years. It takes someone radical like Ron Paul
to turn this thing around. Otherwise we will be doomed with more of the same top 3 of the DEM PARTY. At this time I don't care much for the cowards in our DEM Party who should be
voted out for they did not uphold the constitution.

[horsemanuer]

Ron Paul is a good man with a good mind. Just the opposite of the chimp.

[LeftLeanWing]

Paul wrote: "Given the inefficiencies of what D.C. laughingly calls the `criminal justice system,' I think we can safely assume that 95 percent of the black males in that city are semi-criminal or entirely criminal,"

Paul also wrote that although "we are constantly told that it is evil to be afraid of black men, it is hardly irrational. Black men commit murders, rapes, robberies, muggings and burglaries all out of proportion to their numbers.”

"The Civil Rights Act of 1964 not only violated the Constitution and reduced individual liberty; it also failed to achieve its stated goals of promoting racial harmony and a color-blind society. Federal bureaucrats and judges cannot read minds to see if actions are motivated by racism.

Paul, writing in his independent political newsletter in 1992, reported about unspecified surveys of blacks. "Opinion polls consistently show that only about 5 percent of blacks have sensible political opinions, i.e. support the free market, individual liberty and the end of welfare and affirmative action,"

sounds like a good ole Republican to me.....

[MENTAL]

.
If this information about Paul in Iowa is correct, and when combined with other recent poll information, then there is only one conclusion: The voters in Iowa are not, in the slightest, paying any attention to the character, positions or other important and critical aspects of the candidates.

The results of the Iowa caucus should, therefore, be ignored by any reasonable and rational voter elsewhere in the country. Had that happened the 2000 election, the Dems would not have been stuck with the most incompetent campaigner in history as their candidate and maybe, just maybe, the country and the world would have been spared four additional years of the national nightmare and disgrace known as DickNBush.

.

[HollywoodBill]

Ron Paul coming in third in Iowa is wishful thinking on the part of a bored out of their mind media who has too much time on their hands in the middle of the Bible Belt.

Ron Paul is too old, too whacked out in some of his views and definitely too into the trappings that got him and keep him in power--the social conservative wing of the Republican Party. How any Libertarian can be pro life and say it with a straight face defies explanation.

But there is a huge libertarian (small L) wing of the GOP that will be back. Some believe that this faction, best exemplified by Barry Goldwater and his stunning example of libertarian Republicanism in action, Sandra Day O'Connor is the future of the Republican Party.

Ron Paul is not going to be the GOP candidate or even come close. However, some politician will notice the support, go back to these roots within the GOP and emerge with some winning combination by 2016. And this time heed the words of Barry Goldwater: "If they suceed in establishing religion as a basic Republican Party tenent, they could do us in."

[Wiredwilly]

Paul is a Classic American, philosophically in the mode of Washington & Jefferson.
As far as being an isolationist, there are REASONS the Founding Fathers left Europe in the first place. The Primary reason to escape the Banking monopoly of the Bank of England. There are also REASONS the Queen of England visited Mr. Bush, and I can almost guarantee it wasn't to visit Jamestown.­There are REASONS Mr. Bush keeps kissing up to Wolfowitz and the World Bank. There are REASONS the National Debt is 8 Trillion dollars and YOU are paying it off. All I have heard mentioned for the last 50 years is The Middle East, Viet Nam, China, Israel and Palestine.
How about a President who actually thinks about Kansas, Wisconsin, and Vermont. You know, the people funding the World. Americans.
Someone who supports the Constitution and a strong American currency over the International Banking Cartel trying to bankrupt the Country. What a concept. Personally, I prefer Kucinich or Edwards. I support Universal Health Care and see Paul as somewhat over-zealous, but compared to the other candidates, he looks like Mount Rushmore.
Nice to see Paul moving up in the Polls.

[thx1138bell]

woo-hoo! you better believe it huff-po!!! nice to see ron paul on your page 2wice today. you can't hide a good thing! - tb

[drkazmd65]

Paul is the ONLY Republian Presidential candidate in my living memory that I would even consider thinking about voting for in a General Election.

And, if it comes down to Paul vs Hillary,..­. I am going to be voting for Paul.

The folks in Iowa appear to be starting to agree.

But,... until Hillary screws up the Democratic party even more by somehow winning the Nomination­,...

Go Kucinich!