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Chip Collis

Chip Collis

Posted: May 7, 2008 08:39 AM

Clinton in Indiana: Not a Bang But A Squeak


The Hillary Clinton campaign will barely live to fight yet another day, as she has defeated Barack Obama in the Indiana primary by the slimmest of margins. Her popular vote margin of approximately 22,000 represents less than 2 percent of the record turnout of well over a million voters. It is far from the convincing win she needed to maintain her momentum, and the "tiebreaker" state of Indiana ended essentially in a tie.

The battle for the 72 Indiana delegates is also a draw. Because they are proportionally elected, it appears as though Senator Clinton will gain very few, if any, delegates. Because of this miniscule margin, Clinton finds herself farther behind Obama in the delegate count than she started the day.

Coupled with North Carolina's results, Obama's net gain of delegates significantly extends his lead over Clinton, and his total pickup for the night means that he needs fewer than 190 additional delegates to gain the nomination. There are 221 delegates at stake in the remaining primaries and over 260 uncommitted superdelegates.

Clinton is expected to win next week's 28-delegate West Virginia Primary, which means that the next chance Obama will have to knock Clinton out of the race comes in two weeks, in the May 20th Oregon and Kentucky primaries, which award 52 and 51 delegates, respectively. However, Clinton's weak showing imperils her chances to convince superdelegates and donors of her electability, and she may be forced to suspend her cash-strapped campaign before much longer.

MSNBC announced that she has canceled her scheduled TV and public appearances for Wednesday except for a Washington fundraiser.

As in Pennsylvania, Clinton's victory relied heavily on two factors: the strong political machine of a local Democratic bigwig (in this case Evan Bayh) and a populist approach to white, low-income, rural voters. As anticipated, Obama won in the heavily urban northwest corner of the state, around industrial giant Gary. Its high proportion of black voters, coupled with its proximity to Obama's hometown of Chicago, virtually guaranteed that he would finish strongly there.

Lake, St. Joseph and Elkhart Counties, along the Interstate 80 corridor, all fell into the Obama column, as did the I-65 corridor from Purdue University to Indianapolis.

But virtually every county south of the Indianapolis Speedway except for the Bloomington area came in strongly for Clinton. In what has become a pattern recently, Clinton did well in counties that traditionally vote Republican, and, as in Ohio and Texas, her margin of victory may have been provided by the Republican crossover vote: approximately 5 of her 51 percentage points came from Republicans.

The Hillary Clinton campaign will barely live to fight yet another day, as she has defeated Barack Obama in the Indiana primary by the slimmest of margins. Her popular vote margin of approximately 22...
The Hillary Clinton campaign will barely live to fight yet another day, as she has defeated Barack Obama in the Indiana primary by the slimmest of margins. Her popular vote margin of approximately 22...
 
 
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11:52 PM on 05/08/2008
Sen.Obama did what he did in Pennsylvania. Concentrate on the big markets and ignore the rest. He won the 9 counties with the largest populations in Indiana and lost the other 83. Sen. Clinton's margins in the counties she won were around 65%-35%.

Anybody who believes the Limbaugh B.S. has no idea what they are talking about. Yes, I'm talking to you Chris Mathews.
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NoahVail
...a curmudgeon from So. Arizona
08:39 PM on 05/08/2008
Senator Evan Bayh is the real loser here. Not much chance he is going to get a cabinet level appointment. That's really too bad because his very progressive father, Birch Bayh had a lot of integrity.
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lizr
Shamanic Healer goofing off here
09:02 PM on 05/08/2008
Not a good year to place your bets with the status quo.. Sorry Evan. I too loved Birch Bayh.

Too bad.
08:36 PM on 05/08/2008
Hillary is going to rip the party to shreads, so she can come in and convince Obama that she is the one to put it back together and be the heroine as VP.
11:48 PM on 05/07/2008
good riddance
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06:23 PM on 05/07/2008
The OBAMATONS who are so happily deriding Clinton and her supporters right now will be crying when the people they despise so much either sit the election out or vote for McCain. From their actions, one would think Obama has won a crushing victory, rather than the squeaker the 51/49 primary really is. There's no way Obama can win the general without Clinton's supporters, and most of them won't be there for him.
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paganmist
Girl gamer geek armchair activist
10:39 PM on 05/07/2008
Which means that none of you have a right to complain when McCain wins.

Not a single one of you.
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rsg5354
12:35 AM on 05/08/2008
That's just plain stupidity talking. McCain doesn't have a snow ball chance in hell of winning and you know it.
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SuiginTou7
Let the Alice Game begin!
06:34 PM on 05/08/2008
Maybe in your little world but in reality, McCain won't win.
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Dustee
R-U Caught Up in all of those Republican LIES?
12:15 AM on 05/08/2008
SlappHappy : Actually, that's a two way street that you're talking about, you know. The same could have happened if the shoe were on the other foot.

I guess it's one of those things because you're angry. You don't mind seeing soldiers in body bags being shipped home. Or your children and grandchildren going off to this same war. People with no health care in their time of need, etc.

But you would have gotten out you revenge and you'll be able to sleep nights.
05:01 PM on 05/07/2008
You know how Clinton dismisses Obama's victories in "red states": Am I the only one noticing that her victories all seem to hang on rural areas that will almost certainly go overwhelmingly Republican in the fall?
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windyindie41
06:45 PM on 05/07/2008
And the two biggest states in the whole country, New York and California, will like always go voerwhelmingly for the Democrats in November. While Obama has around 100,000 more popular votes then Hillary, he got them from 31 states, while Hillary got hers from only 17. But again, this is actully MORE impressive for Obama when you look at who won which states, and the fact that almost every state Hillary won was NOT a swing state.
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rsg5354
12:37 AM on 05/08/2008
HRC supporters are just as sour as she is. Those votes came from Republicans that have no intentions of voting for her in the general election anyway.
11:49 PM on 05/08/2008
It's my understanding the caucuses are not added into the popular vote count.

Obama won hugely in some caucus states. In Kansas, as I've posted before, he bested Hillary with 74% and the turnout was something never before seen in this state. Thousands standing in freezing rain for hours and people scrambling to find additional locations. Many never did get in to caucus including my whole group.
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Dustee
R-U Caught Up in all of those Republican LIES?
12:17 AM on 05/08/2008
That came to my mind this morning - you're right!
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standforpeace
03:34 PM on 05/07/2008
It is over. The only thing left for Clinton to decide is whether she wants to follow through with this new image of a fighter that she has carved out in the past couple of months. What I mean by that is that she needs to decide whether she is the kind of fighter who only fights for self (ambition and pride) or whether she wants to come out swinging for the American people. And the only way for her to fight for the people now is to throw her support behind Obama and work her ass off to help overcome the resistance to him that she both benefitted from and stoked, especially among white working class and older voters. Because 4 more years of the Republicans bomb, bomb, bombing Iran and stoking the flames in Iraq and taking away the rights of women with their Supreme Court nominees and allowing the bankers and oil companies to operate unchecked while Americans lose their homes and jobs would be worse than a disaster.
02:13 PM on 05/07/2008
Wow, I thought there was something bad about me because I couldn't stand the phoney wave and smile, and the stupid looks she makes all the time, To me they have always been as unbearable as the Bush strut and cowboy pose. I mean, come on,this is why you get an Ivy League education. I was a real Clinton fan years ago, but all of the poses and screaming that make her come across as Shrill Hill have really turned me off, along with those pantsuits. I come from Philly. 2 weeks after she was in Pa. posing as Annie Oakley and knocking back boilermakers we had another policeman killed on the streets by an assault rifle. I know she is for a ban on these things, but posing with any kind of a gun isn't what I want to see in a Democratic candidate.
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rsg5354
12:39 AM on 05/08/2008
She always looks fake. I'm glad to know that I'm not the only that can see that.
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dawlishgal
06:55 PM on 05/08/2008
We moved to Pittsburgh recently, and I was appalled by the union leaders who (like the Clintons did with NAFTA) betrayed the workers by supporting her. I couldn't believe (especially after what the Clintons and their NAFTA did to the steel towns along the Monongahela) that there would be any support for her here at all.

I supported the Clintons through all of their years in office, but their bad behavior in this campaign caused me to take another look at their behavior through the prism of what I know now, and the picture is not a pleasant one. Especially with respect to NAFTA, her doomed-to-fail (on purpose?) healthcare plan, and the way they robbed Gore of resources that ought to have been his for his presidential race, but were diverted by them to her senatorial race.

Narcissists. Pure and simple.
09:14 PM on 05/08/2008
Big Labor isn't what it used to be politically. Many of Hillary's supporters got on board years ago, including labor, making early endorsements and other promises. That's one reason Hillary won in Ohio and Pennsylvania - she had the state party infrastructure and the major union support locked up far in advance. One thing Labor hasn't learned over the years is to hold their support for when it matters. They've been consistantly burned over the years because of it. Everybody wants to be the first in line to endorse a candidate. This can prove disasterous if their selection doesn't win.
01:28 PM on 05/07/2008
After watching her talking to journalists in West Virginia, it is obvious that she's entering the first of the five stages of grief: Denial. Anger will show up quickly, then she will pass to the bargaining (Dream Ticket?), later depression will enter (In Oregon) and finally, acceptance will take over (After the Nuclear Option is defused). It's just matter of time.

Barack Obama: Now more than ever, choose change...
01:15 PM on 05/07/2008
It looks like Senator Clinton's days on the campaign trail are limited. I can't say I will miss her. What really gets on my nerves is her gratuitous smile and point at that special invisible person in the audience. As if to say " hey person, you're special and you should feel more special for my acknowledgement of you" At first, it almost seemed genuine, now it's like a bad Tourette syndrome twitch combined with a stock cheerleader move. She can't climb more than three stair steps without bustin' the move. Watch her - you'll see.
04:49 PM on 05/07/2008
"What really gets on my nerves is her gratuitous smile and point at that special invisible person in the audience."

Nicely observed, though that's hardly unique to Hillary. It's true though, you see that a lot, and while I think that people who happen to know the politician are often put somewhere in the front, I also wonder if it's politician's training, whether there's someone there that they know or not. After all, it conveys a sense to onlookers that the politician is familiar with someone in the crowd, is liked by them, and by extension that the politician is likable.

Anyway.
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windyindie41
06:51 PM on 05/07/2008
You are correct in saying this type of pointing and such is not exclusive to Hillary, but I think it's safe to say that she has taken it to a whole new level of pandering creepiness. First, she does the pointing thing at EVERY SINGLE EVENT, and it's extremely played-out. Then, you have her "shockingly suprised by the crowd smile" expression, in which she walks into a room, opens her eyes as far as they can possibly go, and opens her mouth ALL the way and smiles like the joker, something which I have never seen her do until January.

But your observations about why she does this are dead-on. It doesn't mean it's any less creepy or distrubing in my mind, though.
05:53 AM on 05/08/2008
Ever notice that Laura Bush does the same thing? Not only does she point at imaginary people, but she also does the open mouth surpise thing
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gevan
the pilgrim has landed
01:01 PM on 05/07/2008
You gotta admit, she kickedass in Clinton County.
01:49 PM on 05/07/2008
Yes, and everyone in Obama, Japan supports Barack. What's your point?
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Binx101
07:27 PM on 05/07/2008
We wrote an article about that and one about Aston Clinton in the UK

http://binx101.wordpress.com/2008/03/05/obama-endorsed-by-obama-japan-v-clinton-karl-rove-limbaugh-and-fox/

Binx101
The Almost Daily Binx
http://binx101.wordpress.com
11:42 AM on 05/07/2008
She needs to leave now, while it's good for her and her damaged legacy....
01:34 PM on 05/07/2008
It's all about the money. She has to con people into paying off her campaign debt. You can't get people to do that it you don't pretend to have a chance. Watch her cut way back on expenditures (mainly advertising) and try to raise much more than she spends for the next 3 weeks.
03:10 PM on 05/07/2008
I agree, but as long as she stays in the race, her support group will continue to get paid big bucks. I understand why they want her to continue with this race. They don't want their salary to be cut off.
04:00 PM on 05/07/2008
WOW!!! I only knew there had to be an agenda having nothing to do with the race - this is quality information...thanks!!!!
11:01 AM on 05/07/2008
It's A Sign, Hillary: Creator of 'Rocky Road' Dies'
HILLARY, I LOVE YA HON. You're the one who teaches little girls that they can play ball with the big boys. The one who shows older woman there are possibilities beyond fetching beer for the hubby and scrubbing toilets. You're proof that women can choose something else other than the slow inexorable slide toward death in a nursing home in our later years. And you know something about 'inexorable,' Hillary: its other definition is relentless. And, yet, Hil, it's over.

It could be mere coincidence that the news that the co-founder of Baskin-Robbins, Irvine Robbins, who created the chewy cold confection known as "Rocky Road,'' hit the web Tuesday. Crabby, who confesses to be superstitious, thinks not.

I'm still willing to dream along, Hillary. But you can't have any more of my money. I'm barely able to scrape together the few crumbs to feed my own delusions (think early 401K withdrawals!) and you've got $109 million in the bank.

The road has been treacherous, and you have traveled it well and far. But it looks like you won't make it to the finish line first. Unless you can rightly convince Floridians and Michiganders that their votes have been stolen. And, yes, Crabby does believe in miracles. But maybe...now...is...the...time...to ...surrender. The sky will open wide, the road will become smooth and clear, and maybe you'll still have time to become part of history.
CrabbyGolightly.com
05:37 PM on 05/07/2008
This is an excellent post.

Hilary should not be demonized. She did, after all, win the support of millions of voters. And while I, a staunch Obama supporter, was insulted and repulsed by some of her campaign tactics, the time has come to move forward and not hold any grudges. Her instincts told her that, after all the grief she went through in the 1990s, and after watching with shock and horror at Bush's re-election in 2004, she had not choice in this election but to go negative, pander, and scare people ("as far as I know," free gas until Labor Day, if I'm not answering the phone at 3am you and all of your children will DIE). Fortunately her calculus was proved wrong, and people are indeed embracing change and a new generation of leadership.

But part of this process of reconciliation and building bridges must start from within the Democratic party, with Obama supporters laying off the heated rhetoric, recognizing some of the blatant misogynist media bias that has cropped up along the way, and reach out a hand of fellowship to anyone who's voted for Clinton. Some may have done it for nefarious reasons, but many did it sincerely, and their choice should be respected.

Let's build a big tent here and work on the 50-state strategy!
06:02 AM on 05/08/2008
I kind of think that it is up to Hillary and Bill Clinton to transmit that message to their supporters. All it would take is a few kind words from the Clintons toward Obama and urge their supporters to support Obama. Think they are capable of doing that?

Personally I have a lot of resentment toward the Clintons after this horrific campaign show that they put on. The supporters are really not whom I harbor resentments toward. I tend to think that many of themwhose essays that we have read here and elsewhere, were looking for a job in the Clinton administration. That's just my opinion.
09:17 PM on 05/08/2008
Bravo!!