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Chris Kelly

Chris Kelly

Posted: November 4, 2009 07:50 AM

Dud, Baby, Dud: The Lesson of Doug Hoffman

What's Your Reaction?

"I believe America is turning the page to a new dawn." ~ Doug Hoffman, Concession Speech

Doug Hoffman lost his election last night. He was supported by a plurality of talk radio entertainers, and a majority of former half-term governors of Alaska, but it wasn't enough. An obscure quirk of constitutional law says you also need votes from voters. This is the same cruel hurdle that tripped up three of his other biggest supporters, Gary Bauer, Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani, all of whom ran for President of the United States, but failed the "getting votes" test, because everyone hates their guts.

With their help, and a million dollars from the Club for Growth, Doug Hoffman lost a part of New York State that had voted Republican since the best way to get from Albany to Buffalo was by canal.

Not bad for a first try.

Doug Hoffman didn't just have money to burn and the staunch support of Facebooking frost bunnies, Fox News and the Ghosts of Vanity Campaigns Past. He also had coots on the ground; an army of volunteers from the tea bag movement, the 9/12 Project and the fanatic anti-choice fringe. The problem was, they could shout at the polling places as loud as they wanted, and they did, but they didn't live there, so they weren't allowed to vote.

There's probably a lesson to that. Something about politics being local.

And beyond that, about the people who do live there resenting being told what to do.

Rush Limbaugh predicted that Hoffman would win. In fact, Hoffman's victory was such a foregone conclusion yesterday that Rush had already moved on to mocking Democrats spinning their loss.

Rush:

If Hoffman wins -- and polls suggest that he will -- the race there will be dismissed as an outlier...


Folks, I want you to print these words out. I want you to get the transcript off my website. I want you to print these out, I want you to distribute them, I want you to carry them with you, and we'll just see how close I am to being right. (When Hoffman wins) the State-Run Media will say, "New York-23, the race is more about the demise of the Republican Party and anger on the right than Obama or his policies."

Print it out. Distribute it. And carry it with you, just to see how close he was to being right: Not within a zillion light years.

Rush couldn't be right, (and he can never be wrong) because he's debating a straw man from the future. His point is that X would say Y. And that's always his point: If the thing he imagines happening happens, liberals will react in a way he imagines, and it'll be just like them, too. Except they never do, because it doesn't, so they can't, not that they would have. But I wouldn't put it past them, since they do it every time.

But not today. Imaginary liberals won't be saying New York-23 doesn't matter. Rush will.

 
"I believe America is turning the page to a new dawn." ~ Doug Hoffman, Concession Speech Doug Hoffman lost his election last night. He was supported by a plurality of talk radio entertainers, and a ...
"I believe America is turning the page to a new dawn." ~ Doug Hoffman, Concession Speech Doug Hoffman lost his election last night. He was supported by a plurality of talk radio entertainers, and a ...
 
 
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06:48 PM on 11/08/2009
I actually don't think anyone expected the Democrat to win in Virginia.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
alumtrix
08:12 AM on 11/07/2009
Obama felt certain that the dems would carry NJ and VA so he was willing to campaign there. He wouldn't touch NY-23 since the repubs had held that district for 150 years. WHOOPS!
03:12 PM on 11/08/2009
This post is about Rush and his false prediction on NY-23.
Nice try changing the subject.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Skeetshooter
Artist, writer, provocateur
03:58 PM on 11/06/2009
Love this post; reminds me that I need to resubscribe to HBO for Kelly's on air humor. 'Coots' on the ground.... Good stuff.

Kelly also seems sympathetic to my space/time rift theory: The ruby slippered neo fascists are clicking their heels together chanting 'there's no time like the roaring 20's' forgetting how the end of that decade would feel just like a time warp forward to our present circumstance.

Even more moderate Republicans are desperate to turn back to the clock at least as far as the Reagan era, when consequences of voodoo economics were just a twinkle in Casandra's eye.
Did they just sleep through the Shrub years? If they're still asleep, can we get them to stop talking voting and governing in their sleep? There must be a pill for that.
01:12 PM on 11/06/2009
Great post, Chris.
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MaryMay
May your tears come from laughing
11:06 AM on 11/06/2009
Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, Sarah Palin--the right wing, Christian right, conservative hardest hitters, all endorsed Duh Doug, and he still got beat in a district that has had a Republican congressman for 100 years. Hey, Rush Glenn, Sarah, do you think the voters--even Republicans--are now running the other way when you speak? Two Republican governors do not an Obama-undoing make. An additional Democratic congressman--another Democratic House voter--now that's sweet.
03:24 AM on 11/06/2009
For a dud in the race only for 30 days to get 46 % of the vote shows Hoffman did remarkably well. Lets not forget about election in 2010 when Owen's must to run against another Republican.
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
editorjuno
Musician, wordsmith, accidental mystic, etc.
01:22 PM on 11/06/2009
It'll have to be a moderate Republican who understands that the 23rd lives and dies by government money -- e.g. without Fort Drum and the SUNY colleges, the North Country would be an economic wasteland. The lesson isn't that a GOPer can't win up there, it's that a far-right carpetbagger supported by out-of-district/state/touch political losers and extremist media figures can't up win there -- even against a (shudder) Dem.
05:18 AM on 11/07/2009
But that's all they have left there editorjuno, ultra right reactionaries supported by outsiders so far from the voters that they might as well be from another country, a hostile one, like say North Korea.

They'd better plan on losing for quite a while given the Republican Party's shift to just right of Mussolini.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Wesneeds
What is a micro Bio?
04:11 AM on 11/26/2009
Owens will not have to defend the 23rd District in 2010 if the Census estimates for NY are correct. It seems that population shifts in the West means that NY is slated to lose 1 Congressional seat . Want to guess which seat the NY Democratically controlled legislature is going to sacrafice? You got it , NY's 23rd Congressional District. Oh, Minnesota is also slated to lose a congressional seat .That explains why Bachmann has been pallin' around with Palin.
12:07 AM on 11/06/2009
The kiss of death for Doug was his Robocall from Sarah Palin. When will people learn? Everything she touches ends up badly. People need to get educated about what she is really about. A fraud.
02:43 PM on 11/08/2009
I hope the Republicans may never learn how toxic Sarah Palin may be outside, their rather narrow base in the old Confederacy.
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labman57
science educator
06:36 PM on 11/05/2009
Gotta love the logic of the conservative movement. They just got their butts kicked in two Congressional races, and they try to spin the outcome stating that "We got 'em right where we want 'em!"

Kind of like a halftime pep talk given to a football team that is losing 21-6.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
jf1936
09:18 PM on 11/06/2009
dude the loss in NJ for democrats was huge. there were 2 republicans running, one as an independent and even after he siphoned off 5% of the vote the other republican still beat corzine 49-44, and NJ is a solid blue state.

That's a big deal. There is no spin about that. And it is true, republicans do have democrats right where they want them, and I guarantee in 2010 that republicans will take back majorities in both houses of congress. It is guaranteed.
05:30 AM on 11/08/2009
The loss in NJ was expected, Corzine was not popular.
The win in NY 23 though...do you understand? That district has been Republican for as long as there has been a Republican party. That says far more than what happened in NJ, or VA for that matter. There is also the little matter of 2 seats in Congress, which rather outweigh the governerships of VA and NJ.
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Nagarjuna
and/or Not Nagarjuna
05:28 PM on 11/08/2009
You heard it here, folks... GUARANTEED by jf1936 himself. See you in November!
04:37 PM on 11/05/2009
I grew up in NY state outside of Buffalo. We New Yorkers are arrogant and we love our state . No New Yorker wants outsiders coming in and making their business our business. The New York attitude is not limited to the city.
03:27 PM on 11/08/2009
Good for you.
04:26 PM on 11/05/2009
Nope, Palin and Limbaugh can't win elections --not one!-- but I hope they keep trying!
02:00 PM on 11/05/2009
What every Dem wants to overlook is the fact that you had the endorsement of the republican candidate and still only won by 4,000 votes against a third party, late entry candidate. If you guys are proud of that then just hold on to that feeling for a few more years.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
margoharris
I used to be Snow White but I drifted.
03:16 PM on 11/05/2009
You left out one fact, the district has been held by a rethuglican since the civil war. Try spinning that!

Historic vote, electing a Democrat. Suck it up.
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SomaMinneapolis
10:42 AM on 11/06/2009
Lets try to remember that upstate NY Republicans are who chose to vote for the Democratic candidate at the request of one of their own.

Rethuglican should be reserved for those who earn the title.
04:25 PM on 11/05/2009
The democratic candidate did not have the endorsement of the Republican candidate. She made no endorsement, basically telling voters to follow their conscience. So, either you are loudly and arrogantly mistaken, or you are lying.

Doug did do pretty well, though, especially for a non-resident with no knowledge of, or interest in the affairs of the district.
12:31 AM on 11/06/2009
Actually the republican did endorse the democrat. On Saturday, she released her supporters, and on Sunday endorsed Owens.
08:12 AM on 11/06/2009
That suggests that 44% of people there would vote republican no matter who was on the ballot. Kinda scary.
12:36 PM on 11/05/2009
The man looks like some kind of very surprised rodent, he wasn't about to win. But this article seems to forget that VA and NJ went over to Republican governorship and they were quickly described as entirely not a reflection of Obama's influence. So, and this is really hard to write, Rush was right in a way. This is as much a time of victory for the Dems as it is a time of defeat. All those other Republicans that won had the same crazy-people support, and they won. So don't discount those forces as ineffectual. They're definitely something to be reckoned with.

Except Palin. I'm surprised that woman hasn't forgot how to breathe and suffocated by now.
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
LiberalLee
Yes I am a witch. Deal with it.
12:52 PM on 11/05/2009
Governors don't set National policy.
Governors pretty much have nothing to do with the Federal Gov't. except for asking for $$.
So the GOP can crow all they want about winning a pair of state capital seats.
They're just trying desperately to get the focus off the fact that they lost another pair of seats in Congress.
01:25 PM on 11/05/2009
Vs & NJ both voted for Obama last year. There IS reason to be concerned. Obama's inaction & ineptitude, together with the Democrat's abject failure to govern when handed the opportunity does not bode well for the mid-terms not the general election in 12. The Republicans will not win nearly as much as the Democrats will lose. The loss of the Democrats will continue the long term loss for the country. I hope the graft they receive in their 2 years of control is enough to satisfy them for what they have & have not done to & for the people of the US.
03:22 PM on 11/05/2009
Just because they don't have anything to do with national policy doesn't make them worthless. Christie has openly declared he will opt-out of any public option passed. If states are opting out, the option will not bring about the improvement expected and will be that much easier to dismantle. This is serious. The GOPers might be trying to get the focus off their loss, but so are the Dems.
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HST
Conservatism = selfishness
11:58 AM on 11/05/2009
The lesson for today:
Rush, Beck, Palin, tea-baggers and Faux News endorsements = losing the election.

Even in Republican districts!
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jf1936
09:23 PM on 11/06/2009
how do you explain the epic loss for governor in NJ? Even with a third party republican taking 5% of the vote away from the Mainstream republican, he still beat the democrat, in a solid blue state, 45-49.

Democrats won one meaningful victory against a guy who ran for literally 30 days and had his other Republican opponent endorse the Democrat the night before the election.

Yes, it's noteworthy a democrat won that seat, but it's guaranteed to go back to a republican in 2010, so I wouldn't be too excited.

How's that for spin?
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middleoftheroad
11:55 AM on 11/05/2009
chris: this race may make you feel good, but it's grasping. what conservatives did(and I don't stand with their social agenda) was what progressives only dream about..... tell the party "NO"....they said" we don't like this liberal candidate... we are not voting the party line and we don't care if the GOP loses if it means we elect a liberal" (she is a liberal, not a moderate-please as a writer explain how she is not liberal). not to mention when the people get to chose a candidate in a primery, this seat will flip back next year.
09:52 AM on 11/05/2009
The race in the 23rd was about bipartisanship. Obama appointed the Republican congressman from the district to be secretary of the army. That way a Democrat could be added to congress. Bipartisanship really works.
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
dawp
AAAACCCCKKK!!!
12:18 AM on 11/07/2009
the district was for the rebublicans to lose and the did.