John McCain's Flat Tax October Surprise

John McCain isn't just going to spend the next eighteen days drifting around the swing states like a mall walker. (Didn't David Lynch make a movie about a real old guy riding a tractor across America to get away from Sissy Spacek? I think it's on my "Movies I Never Want to See" list. Where is that list? It's around here somewhere.)

John McCain isn't interested in second place. Can you imagine the living nightmare that would be the rest of his life if he does all the disgraceful things he's done and then loses, too? If you can't imagine it, he can.

There's a John O'Hara story where an old bore, after a long and perfectly nice life, screws it all up by flirting with a teenager and then walking in on her in the shower. She shrieks at him and he retreats to his room. Here's how it ends:

"He knew it would be hours before he would begin to hate himself. For a while he would just sit there and plan his own terror."

That's not going to happen to John McCain.

I think John McCain has one more trick up his sleeve. (One last hand from the grave? Some metaphor about shock and clutching.) I think John McCain is planning our terror. I think John McCain is going to pitch the Flat Tax.

Dangerous? Erratic? Crazy? You mean, as opposed to Vice President Miss Wasilla?

There are two ominous reasons John McCain might go for it.

Joe the Plumber

When it comes right down to it, what Joe the Plumber hates is the very idea of progressive taxation, whether he pays his or not. J the P knows his taxes won't go up under President Obama; it's the principle that rankles.

What if Obama gets elected, repeals the Bush tax cuts, and then Joe wins the lottery? If Joe has to pay 39% off the top of his winnings instead of 36%, why bother buying a ticket?

Why should a millionaire pay more taxes than a hobo? It's just doesn't make sense.

Those poor rich.

The flat tax has a powerful allure for people who think Rush Limbaugh works harder than they do, and a girl deserves a few nice things.

John McCain needs those votes.

Jack the Knucklehead

Last week, Jack Kemp co-authored a piece in the Wall Street Journal. He had a solution to the banking crisis: The Flat Tax. This wasn't surprising. Jack Kemp always thinks the solution is the Flat Tax. That's why no one talks to Jack Kemp.

Because he's a pull-toy, and when you tug his string, this comes out:

"And such a tax reform would be an antidote to the class warfare, neocollectivist tax policies of Barack Obama. If implemented, it would also jump-start the economy. Under this optional tax system, savings would increase and investment would soar as capital around the world is drawn to a suddenly more confident U.S. economy.

This new surge of capital would end the credit crunch, and allow old businesses to expand and new ones to start. Wages would grow, along with the overall economy. And as the world invested in America, the dollar would strengthen, as happened in response to the tax cuts that generated the 1980s Reagan boom. This would ease inflationary fears and pressures on the Fed."

It also regrows hair, makes old vinyl upholstery shine like new and brings dead pets back to life. (Only they're evil.)

Of course, that's all crazy talk. The Flat Tax won't do any of those things, any more than eliminating all taxes on people whose names begin with the letters A through K. (Think about it. They'd have more to spend. And that makes jobs. And then Reagan comes back to life. Only he's evil.)

Still, isn't it pretty to think so?

The Flat Tax, stupid in the best of times, would be really, really, really stupid now.

America has added about a trillion bucks to the national debt in the last three weeks. If we announced that our next step was to slash tax revenues the dollar would collapse and we'd turn into Zimbabwe, only with less interesting large predators.

But what the hell. It wouldn't be John McCain's problem. I'm sure Cindy has gold. And he'd never get it though a Democratic house and senate.

It would be a great election promise, though, don't you think? A game changer? Really shake things up?

Wouldn't it be a maverick thing to do?

Comments

[Tweet]

Tonight on Matthews a Las Vegas talk show host said she was opposed to progressive taxation. Actually, she went further: she said she didn't want her money taken from her and given to someone else. Since the whole idea of taxation is to compel people to pay for services they may not personally use, she clearly opposes taxation per se.

What people like her are saying is that they want to choose the polity they will take some responsibility for. It could be a polity of one, or a polity of the family, or the neighborhood, or the church group, or whatever. Beyond that, they feel no need to acknowledge anyone else. So if it's the church group, they can donate, but they don't want to be taxed for the benefit of any wider polity.

Think what you may about progressive taxation, what she was expressing was anarchy. She divides the nation into infinite numbers of little groups, or taking it to the ultimate, into 300,000,000 nations. And then they talk about being pro-American.

I wish somebody would point this out.

[free2u]

Who knows what strategy the mavericks John McCain and Sarah Palin are going to choose ? Their tactics so far have the RNC jumping for joy.You can see their joy and excitement as the rally around JM and SP,the dynamic duo. I wish I was a fly on the wall as they celebrate and discuss the campaign and their heros John McCain and Sarah Palin. I think that what I read in this article might be their OCTOBER SURPRISE !!! Go to this link,and see what I mean.........http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/johnmccain/3238578/John-McCain-endorsed-by-al-Qaeda-supporters.html

[Nina28]

RE: MAKE IT FAIR PAY YOUR SHARE - No Flat Taxes.

We've seen this when Steve Forbes tried it and failed. Flat taxes are completely unfair shifting once again the burden on to working Americans.

McCain/Palin are selling Neo Con bunk once again with the misinformation of Obama's tax plan to give relief to Middle Class and other Working Americans.

If you Work - YOU pay taxes, you are a Tax Payer. Whether you pay state taxes, federal taxes, or payroll taxes. McCain is inferring that an Obama Presidency would give checks to people who don't pay income taxes as if income tax is the only tax working people pay.

He forgot to mention that these States Don't pay income taxes - so is he implying then that these citizens are free loading NON-taxpayers who are living on Welfare?

Alaska-Flo­rida-Nevad­a-New Hampshire-South Dakota-Tex­as-Tenness­ee-Washing­ton-Wyomin­g

[research]

Just more BS from the conservatives and GOP!

We have a flat tax: Social security.

The GOP and conservatives HATE IT!

They won't even consider taking the cap off it.

Don't believe anything the GOP or conservatives say,

They are compulsive liars.

[RadCenter]

Dear Chris:

Please reconsider your placement of the David Lynch movie you referenced -- called "The Straight Story" -- on your "Movies I Never Want to See" list. It's actually a fantastic movie, and Richard Farnsworth should have won the Best Actor Oscar for it. Probably one of the reasons he committed suicide.

[torque dwf]

I second the praise for this movie, it is a slow mover but is filled with style, substance and meening. One of my all time favorites and yes Farnsworth deserved an oscar for a truly awsome acting job. The Bar scene alone where two old vets talk about WWII is worth watching the whole movie for.

[BillAnthony]

I see "the flat tax" scheme as nothing more than a Trojan Horse, similar to how David Stockman described Reagan supply-side economics- the primary purpose being to lower the top rate. With the top rate lowered and typical middle class deductions eliminated, it would be only a matter of weeks, if not days before right wing politicians and their well heeled lobbyists would be pushing for the return of top income deductions and exemptions all in the name of "stimulus". They're really not going to be happy until they achieve a zero tax rate, or as some profitable corporations experienced in the 80's, a negative tax rate.

[JenniferInMO]

Tax policy and the economics of tax policy is complicated. Therefore those who REQUIRE a simple answer love the concept of the flat tax (even though they are most often the people who would benefit least from a flat tax). These are the people who are drawn to Rush Limbaugh and Fox news. These are the people who McCain already has in his base.

The call for a flat tax would seem like another erratic stab by those who are already put off by McCain's economic antics. The only people it would talk to are his core constituents. The problem with McCain's campaign is that he was so let down by the lunatic fringe of his party that he is courting them at every turn. He is so afraid to lose them that he can't allow himself to broaden his reach.

A flat tax would stir the guys already screaming "traitor" and "terrorist" and would make the rest of the country roll its eyes at him ... again.

[4evryoung]

.......savings would increase and investment would soar as capital around the world is drawn to a suddenly more confident U.S. economy.
~~~~~~~~~~­~~~~~~~~~~

Considering the state of the banking and financial industry, why would anyone want to save and invest.
Confidence in the govt will lead to a more confident US economy.

The problem with the flat tax is it doesn't seem to differentiate between necessities and luxuries.

[rowzeer]

I have a not so smart friend who thought a flat tax was a GREAT idea...cause the rich buy more expensive things. Then I asked her how much of her check does she spend...all of it of course...she doesn't make that much money...I asked her how much does a rich person spend of their income....alot less. They can spend and still have money to save or invest. So that means that she will pay taxes on ALL of her income while a rich person will only be taxed on a part of their income and not only that they will get tax breaks on the amount of the income they turn around and invest. So its a win-win for the rich person.

[jabowery]

The Democrats have a far worse nightmare in store for them if the GOP gets off its suicidal kick.

Given the Republican Party’s desperate situation in the upcoming election midst a financial crisis founded on bad consumer credit, there is an enormous opportunity to seize control of the US government and utterly destroy the Democratic Party:

Call up Charles Murray over at the GOP-insider and highly influential American Enterpise Institute and draft a policy for the implementation of ”The Plan” outlined in his book ”In Our Hands: A Plan to Replace the Welfare State” whereby every citizen age 21 or above who isn’t incarcerated receives $10K/year in monthly payments—thereby replacing all transfer/"­entitlemen­t" programs.

If the Republicans could uniformly get behind this conservative think-tank plan, they’d sweep the election and dismantle the core of public sector rent-seeking that provides Democrats with their political base.

[LintLass]

I heard a presentation of this, once: there's some interesting thinking in it, but it'd be a hard one to trust. If they threw in universal health care, maybe, though.

An appealing aspect of it that might not require trying to rewrite the whole economy, though, is the aspect of social supports. There are a lot of people out here with chronic illness or disability who simply can't compete in the job market, and a system over-anxious to snatch away benefits puts a real chill factor on any enterprise, or risking a low-paying, health-care-less day job they might not be able to keep for long, anyway.

Conservatives tend to see entitlements as the *problem:* they call it a 'Welfare trap' and presume that removing the support will magically result in 'whatever's wrong with the poor' going away in a blaze of work ethic, but this all-or-nothing attitude wastes a lot of the talent out there: there are a lot of people who just can't keep up self-supporting work, but that doesn't mean they can't do *anything,* given a stable and secure base to work from.

It's an irony I've seen where people with chronic physical disabilities are, under the present system, expected to compete for the most menial of jobs, ones which require little more than the one thing they don't have, ...a warm body that can show up every day.

We could certainly change the culture about that.

[jabowery]

The problem with the distortions of these proposals, that justifies the "welfare trap' perception, is the "needs-based" testing -- which necessarily creates a disincentive to be "needy".

The proposals that properly belong to the citizens' dividend category aren't needs-based so they don't suffer from the perverse effect.

[cqyates]

I am scared by the number of posters here who don't know the difference between a flat tax and The Flat Tax which is a 25% tax on all goods and services (medical services, food, gas, clothes...­everything­!!!)

[MikeInWinchester]

As I indicated on another post, a Flat Tax is a tax on income at a single marginal rate. You are talking about a national consumption tax.

[rugbymom]

Flat Tax (at least the Steve Forbes version) also eliminated ALL itemized deductions, including mortgage interest and property taxes and charitable.

As soon as people find out there's no mortgage interest or property tax or state income tax deduction any more, this baby will shrivel up and die.

There's an interesting progressive argument for eliminating the homeowner privileges in the tax code, but the Forbes version isn't that sophisticated.

[northstar11]

tax on goods and services is called VAT---VALUE ADDED TAX

[WilliePilgrim]

The issue of taxation, and how it's administered, is a complex issue. One issue that constantly get's overlooked is how the definition of income shifts. So, Cindy McCain make 4 million, but is it income or wealth? If it's income and income taxes are going up, surprise, we see her recieve it as dividends as her "income" goes down, and thus she's legally bamboozled the system.
When building a structure made out of screen material, it's quite impossible to patch all the loopholes without turning screen's ability to pass light and air into the room into a concrete fug, which is what I think our current tax system is.
Hate to say I agree with Niel Bortz on anything, but the fair tax is an experiment in governement funding I'd love to see become reality. In other words, I love to see this apple cart change directions but I'm not so enthusiastic that I'd want to see it tip over.

[MikeInWinchester]

Quit worrying about how Cindy gets her money. It is HER money! Go make your own money, and quit looking for a handout!

[LeftRight]

When Cindy is making HER money on MY back, I care about it! The fact of the matter is that the only way that people become rich is by using the SYSTEM that's been set up by the GOVERNMENT, which uses TAXES to set up the SYSTEM. In other words, pay your darn fair share!

[MikeInWinchester]

I would like to see Obama put his money where his mouth is. He thinks that 'spreading it around' from those who have earned it to those who have not earned it is 'fair'. So out of that sense of fairness, he should give the McCain campaign a few hundred million dollars. The Obama campaign has a few hundred million more to spend on campaign activities than McCain does, so out of 'fairness' Obama should spread around the campaign money they have raised, and give some to McCain.

[nabrum]

"...so out of 'fairness' BO should spread around the campaign money they have raised, and give some to JM."

Ah, but JM would be in a quandary: He's be accepting socialism. Chavez would have a hoot on your idea.

[gvc]

Flat tax works fine if you have a baseline tax credit of something like $10K. But that'd be "welfare."

[MikeInWinchester]

A baseline tax credit would not be necessary. With a 10% flat tax, a guy earning 20,000 per year would pay 2,000 in taxes; a guy making 200,000 in taxes would pay 20,000 per year in taxes. It sounds like the 'little guy' is getting a pretty good deal without a tax credit.

[cqyates]

Do you know what the Flat Tax is? It is a 25% sales tax on all goods and services (like going to the doctor). Since low income people spend 100% on goods and services, they would pay a 25% tax on their entire income. A wealthy person might spend 1/10th of their income on goods and services therefore they pay taxes on a much smaller percentage of their income. The advantages of the flat tax are companies would not have to commit time and energy into tax avoidance "activities" and that the black market would be taxed. The downside is that it would be a disincentive toward consumer spending which we need to be strong in order to get out of this economic crises. Next argument please....

[northstar11]

when john mccain says lets not raise anybody's taxes he is not refering to joe six pack who would most likely be in the 59%protected by obamas plan---- he is referring to CINDY'S INCOME

she pays 26% on 4 million - its a pittance-----she nets 3 mil per year

joe six pack earning 30,000 per year would take 100 YEARS TO GROSS HER ANNUAL TAKE HOME

100 YEARS .

Greed ----pure greed.