Another Bad Hurricane Year Forecast

New Orleans, LA -- Last year, thanks largely to the late and rapid onset of El Niño conditions in the Pacific, we had a relatively uneventful Atlantic hurricane season, without a single storm of hurricane strength making landfall in the U.S. The relationship between El Niño and less active Atlantic hurricane seasons has been recognized since the 1980s, when the strong correlation was first detected by meteorologist William Gray of Colorado State University, who then used it as a cornerstone of his Atlantic hurricane forecast.

Gray's pre-season hurricane forecasts from last year failed to detect the onset of El Niño, and so overshot in predicting a very active season that didn't ultimately materialize. But this year, Gray is back, and sounds pretty confident that El Niño won't be. So in a forecast just released today, Gray and his associate Phil Klotzbach are predicting an extremely busy year: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). Roughly the same prediction was just made today by another group, Tropical Storm Risk, which expects to see 16.7 named storms, 9.4 hurricanes, and 4.2 intense hurricanes.

How much should we trust these pre-season forecasts? They should definitely be regarded with a grain of salt; we're still a ways away from hurricane season (which starts June 1). Nevertheless, it would be fair to say that at present--and this could certainly change--there's a general expectation that we have a fairly busy year ahead, at least when it comes to how many storms form in the Atlantic and how strong they are (where they ultimately make landfall is a different issue). Moreover, there's also a consensus that we're in an extraordinarily active period for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995--one that a number of scientists think is linked to global warming and its heating of the oceans (although there's still debate on many aspects of this subject).

But irrespective of the global warming question, we have plenty to worry about, especially when you consider that many of the worst Atlantic hurricanes we've seen in recent years--Charley, Frances, Ivan, Rita, and even Katrina--actually missed the most vulnerable areas that they might have hit. Charley had originally seemed like it might hit Tampa; Frances like it might hit Miami or the Keys; Ivan like it might bowl over New Orleans; Rita like it might trouble Houston. These storms were bad enough as it was, but they could easily have been worse. Even Katrina swerved away from New Orleans and didn't deliver a direct strike to the city.

As for New Orleans itself--where the National Hurricane Conference is starting this week (Gray will detail his forecast at the closing session on Friday)--there's a strong sense down here that the city will rebuild and persevere. Just yesterday, a large number of jazz luminaries including Herbie Hancock and Wayne Shorter appeared at Loyola University to announce a massive investment in New Orleans by the Thelonious Monk Institute, a premiere jazz promotional organization that will be moving to the city from Los Angeles. There was a widespread optimism at the event that jazz is returning to New Orleans, a crucial step on the road to restoration and renewal. (On a personal note, my brother Davy, a jazz guitarist who fled New Orleans after Katrina, is now moving back thanks to the Monk Institute's generosity--he will start this August in a newly formed postgraduate jazz program).

These are all positive signs, but I can't help worrying as well. We might have some slow years, but the only rational outlook to expect (and plan for) is many more menacing hurricanes in our future. We should be taking all conceivable steps to protect our coastal cities against these deadly storms. That means all of these cities, not just New Orleans.

And we should also consider how much damage hurricanes can do--and continue to do--in the developing world. For example, the impoverished Indian Ocean island of Madagascar today experienced its sixth tropical cyclone landfall of the season: Cyclone Jaya, a strong Category 2 storm. Jaya struck very near to the city of Antalaha, which has been repeatedly besieged by powerful hurricanes in the past decade, including a Category 5 landfall in 2004 from Cyclone Gafilo. Rains, flooding, and destructive winds have left hundreds of thousands of Madgascans homeless in the wake of these storms.

Not that it's any consolation, but I'm guessing that at least the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season won't be that bad.