The first debate is in the can and apparently, I got it all wrong.
The most compelling portion of the event came before it even began, when a haggard John McCain crawled back in front of the press, tail between legs, and said he would come out and play after all, his bluff called by the suddenly granite-infused Sen. Barack Obama.
But as I watched the debate itself, I kept having flashbacks to the final Bush/Kerry debate of 2004. John Kerry, a very capable, if somewhat over-nuanced, debater was overwhelmed by an inexplicably articulate George W. Bush. G-Dub's performance was an extended dead-ringer for Will Ferrell's miraculous turn in Old School's quiz show finale featuring James Carville.
Sen. John McCain also channeled a bit of Will Ferrell when speaking on the economy, avoiding any clumsy missteps while playing to America's anger at the staggering "greed" and "corruption" in Washington and on Wall St. that led us to this precipice.
Obama, by comparison, seemed content to wallow in the details of his plan, sacrificing emotional appeal for gravity and intellectualism.
By the time the debate switched to foreign policy and McCain shifted into attack mode, I got very uncomfortable on behalf of the Democratic candidate. As the Illinois senator deflected attack after attack, looking like Luke Skywalker in The Empire Strikes Back when Vader pounded him with inanimate objects, Obama still found a few windows to insert a "good point, Johnny Mac!"
Was this the seasoned veteran of a grueling 18-month campaign process, who Democrats hoped would come out swinging? Was this the same guy who was torn to shreds in St. Paul by Skeletor Thompson, Rudy Poot, and a Tina Fey lookalike, and who his own base subsequently reamed him for being too nice?
I saw visions of countless people in their living rooms, connecting with Everyman McCain just as they did with Bush, watching in awe as McCain repeatedly put Obama, the uppity Hawaiian equivocator with the funny name, in his place.
For the countless many who either choose not to or do not have time to follow the nitty gritty of each issue, the offense/defense ratio is king in choosing the right man for the job. Anytime you can make your opponent sound like a little boy talking out of turn, you score Presidential Points. It's the age old high school conundrum: the douchebag with a mean-streak always gets the girl.
McCain clearly hoped to establish his dynamic going into the debate. Obama did an admirable job of parrying the barbs and clarifying the distortion of fact where he could. McCain's strategy, however, is similar to a lawyer blurting something out that will influence the jury, knowing full-well that the judge will ask that it be stricken from the record. As soon as Obama was forced to justify his positions, the damage had been done.
Incredibly, CNN's brilliantly conceived "impulse monitor" did not tip me off that the polls would fail to bear out my pessimism.
CNN's own poll had Obama winning by a margin of 51-38. Drilling down, Obama was "more in touch with the needs of people like you" by a two to one margin in the same poll. A CBS poll indicated that on the issue of "understanding your needs and problems," Obama catapulted from a +18 to a +56 advantage. Even on Fox News, their test group of 27 undecided voters split 17 to ten in favor of Obama.
Why the perception gap?
For some odd reason, I think Obama supporters are the last to call it for their man. With two elections of being beaten into submission by Rovian campaign tactics, McCain's acrimony triggered a Pavlovian fear of defeat.
The economy is also the one issue that makes people sit up and pay attention. While McCain was uncharacteristically competent on one of his notoriously weaker issues, he choked on specifics. His call for a blanket spending freeze, for example, seemed impetuous and was appropriately criticized by Obama.
McCain's ambiguous promises to "clean up Washington" seemed pointedly hollow in a climate where people are looking for reassurance that their $700 billion will not be spent recklessly.
If someone was looking for a presidential demeanor peppered with a depth of knowledge and compassion for the middle class, apparently, Obama hit the nail on the head.