Electoral Math, From Knucklebiter To Landslide

For the first time in the general election campaign, I am ready to take a look at the electoral map and do some electoral math. Now, we're still pretty far out from Election Day, so likely any of these guesses will be laughably wrong when it rolls around. But we've got to start somewhere.

Before we get to crystal ball gazing, though, we have to clean up some old business here. I ran a contest (right before the Pennsylvania primaries) to see who could predict the outcome of the Democratic nomination race most accurately. Since the race has been over for weeks, and since I have been remiss in announcing winners, I'd like to kick off the general election prognosticating by giving the winners and near-winners from the primary campaign their due.

(Drumroll...) The runners-up in the "call the outcome of the whole shebang" contest are... MilwaukeeMarc and Thatcher. MilwaukeeMarc predicted: Obama wins, Clinton drops out the day after the last primary, June 4th. Thatcher was the closest who overshot the mark, predicting Obama would win on June 11th by delegate count. But alas, neither of you came closest, so please send in those quatloos as soon as you can.

But the grand prize overall winner is... (mega-drumroll...) azpaull!! Azpaull predicted that Obama would win and Clinton would be forced out by the party heavyweights on June 9th... but that the word would be on the street by June 7th.

Hillary Clinton gave her concession speech on Saturday, June 7th. Pretty close! So congratulations to azpaull, and your quatloos are in the mail. Ahem. So to speak.

With the excitement of the primaries a fading memory, we now take a look at how the map might turn out on election night. I've divided the states up into "safe" and "tossup" categories, and then provided four scenarios of possible outcomes -- a "best case" for McCain, what I consider to be a likely outcome, a "best case" for Obama, and then (just because I felt like it) an absolute blow-out landslide for Obama.

There is a list of states at the end of this article, provided as data, complete with their electoral votes, in case you'd like to put together your own scenario. USAToday has a fun map up on their site (which does all the math for you) where you can point and click and call the race as you see it, if you're interested.

 

Safe States

There are two categories of states for each candidate; states which are a "lock" and states which are probable, but not guaranteed. Since this exercise is complicated enough, for the most part these will not change in any of the scenarios outlined below. If a state or two flips in any scenario, it will be pointed out specifically.

Starting with the Republican "bet the farm on it" states, we come up with nine of them -- Alabama, Arizona (McCain's home state), Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, and Wyoming. If any of these states vote Democratic this time around, Barack Obama will be going down in history for his landslide win. There are two possible exceptions to this list, though. Kansas has some "favorite son" ties to Obama, and if Barack names Kathleen Sebelius (the current governor of the state) as his running mate, well then, all bets are off. The second exception may be Arizona, which would normally be considered the first state on McCain's list, but his support in his home state has been noticeably weak in the polls. This doesn't mean Obama's going to win it, but it is rather surprising.

The Democratic all-but-assured states are more numerous, and bigger in population, giving Obama an edge right from the get-go. There are thirteen states which would be shocking news if they went with McCain over Obama -- California, Hawaii (a "favorite son" state for Obama), Illinois (also a "home state" for Barack), Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin, and the District of Columbia. New Jersey has had a "soft" poll or two, but I fully expect it to be solidly Democratic by the fall.

But the real bad news for McCain is when you add up the electoral votes. From their "solid base" states, McCain has 63 and Obama has 183 votes already wrapped up. This is partly due to the size of California, New York, and Illinois, it should be pointed out, and the relatively small numbers from the McCain states in general. And also because I'm not putting Texas down as a Republican lock. Since the target number is 270 (to win in the Electoral College), this leaves Obama only 87 votes short, and McCain a whopping 207 to make up in order to win. This disparity will haunt McCain as he looks at the map and tries to put together a winning bunch of states all throughout the campaign.

It gets even worse when you consider the "likely" states in both columns. Now, this is where polling meets personal opinion, so some might disagree with the states I'm about to lock up for each of them, but (for now) I am going to stand by these.

For John McCain, there are six more states which are probably going to vote for him -- Arkansas, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota, Nebraska, and West Virginia.

Barack Obama also has six states likely to vote for him -- Connecticut, Delaware, Iowa, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and New Mexico.

Like I said, some may quibble with these picks. The mainstream media, for the most part, is desperately trying to keep New Hampshire as a possibility for McCain, but I have news for them -- this is not the 2000 primaries. The polls show overwhelming support for Obama, and anyone who bothers to look at how Granite State Republicans are in full retreat within the state knows that Obama's going to win their four electoral votes this year. Others may have similar disagreements with North Dakota (Obama has a slim chance here), New Mexico, West Virginia, Connecticut (polls have been rather soft for Obama here), and the possibility of Obama picking up an electoral vote or two in Nebraska (they split their vote semi-proportionally). But I'm pretty comfortable standing by these "safe" picks for the time being.

Because, once again, Obama's states have more population, he gains a little more lead here. While Obama picks up 36 Electoral College votes from his six states, McCain only picks up 30. This leads to a baseline total in the Electoral College of 219 for Obama, and only 93 for McCain. This leaves Obama with a much easier road to victory, as he only has to pick up 51 votes from any of the battleground states, while McCain has a daunting 177 to win.

Outcome: a big advantage for Obama, right from the starting line.

 

The "battleground" states

If I could enter a time machine, travel to November, and come back with the results of just five states -- I bet I could pretty accurately predict the election results. Now, everybody's got their own states that are "battleground" states, and there are indeed many states which could go either way this year -- Colorado is a good example. But there are five states in the Eastern time zone (where the polls all close earlier than other states) which are going to determine the outcome of this election.

They are: Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Florida.

I am betting, at this point, that Florida is going to go for McCain, and Pennsylvania for Obama. This leaves three states, and the mix of which way they go will likely determine the outcome of the entire election.

If Obama picks up either Ohio or Michigan, and Virginia, then the race is likely over and he will win. If Obama picks up both Ohio and Michigan (no matter which way Virginia goes), then the race is definitely over, and Obama should start measuring the Oval Office for drapes.

But due to the nature of the race this year, there are other states which cannot be counted on by either party. Some of these are shocking, since they've been considered "red" or "blue" states for years. But there's an real chance of a close contest in Alaska, Colorado, Georgia (due to Bob Barr being in the race), Indiana, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, North Carolina, Oregon, and even Texas.

So it is this list that I am selecting from to put together the following scenarios:

 

Best case McCain

We'll start with the worst possible case for Democrats. Everything breaks McCain's direction. The momentum moves inextricably away from Barack Obama, and swells to lift John McCain on a wave right on in to the Oval Office.

I leave it for the reader to predict the likelihood of this actually happening, I'm more concerned with how it will happen, if it does.

There aren't many surprises in the list of states McCain would have to pick up in this scenario, due to my being overly generous in my estimation of which states are actually "in play" this year. I don't know anybody who would be shocked if the following states went for McCain -- Alaska, Georgia, Indiana, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, North Carolina, and Texas.

McCain would also have to pick up a few close races in this scenario, but none of them is out of the question -- Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, and Virginia. Out of those, Michigan would probably be the hardest for McCain to pick up, but Obama hasn't been polling overwhelmingly well there, so it's a definite possibility for a McCain squeaker victory. Likewise the rest of them. Things would definitely have to break McCain's direction, but it would definitely be within the realm of possibility.

I leave as "tossup" states in this scenario Ohio, Oregon, and Pennsylvania. Also, I move from Obama's "safe" column Iowa and New Mexico, since if everything's breaking McCain's way, these two states might come into play.

But the tossups won't matter. Because if McCain wins the states listed above, he's got 271 Electoral College votes, and it doesn't even matter which way the tossup states go. Because John McCain will be our next president. And if you don't believe McCain can win Michigan, even if he swaps a Pennsylvania or an Ohio win for his Michigan win, the outcome would be the same.

 

Realistic outcome

This is the most clear-eyed analysis I can give of the most likely outcome on election night. Nobody is guaranteed victory, and only four states (three, really) will determine the outcome of the race. This, in my opinion, is the most likely outcome, looking into the crystal ball this far out.

Barack Obama picks up Oregon and Pennsylvania.

John McCain, however, picks up a whole slew of states: Alaska, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, North Carolina, and Texas.

I think a sober consideration of all of those states, the polling from them, and their voting patterns will show that none of these guesses is outside most people's expectations. It might be outside some people's hopes, but not outside what you'd bet the farm on, to put it bluntly.

Barack Obama, in this eminently plausible scenario, would have 247 Electoral College votes to John McCain's 232. This leaves the following states to determine who our next president will be: Colorado, Michigan, Ohio, and Virginia.

The way this would play out is that John McCain would need three out of these four states to win. Barack would need either Michigan or Ohio, and one other state, to win. If Obama picked up Colorado and Virginia, but McCain got Michigan and Ohio, we would be faced with a 269/269 tie. So between these four states, it would be close, but we would likely know before waiting for Colorado's returns which way things were going to go.

 

Best case Obama

But it would be so easy for things to swing in Obama's direction, that we have to examine one of the many ways Obama could win in a big way. There are all kinds of scenarios for this to happen, depending on which way individual states go, so consider this just one of many possibilities.

While John McCain picks up nothing, Barack Obama picks up the following -- Colorado, Georgia (Bob Barr spoils McCain's victory here), Michigan, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. With the possible exception of Georgia (again, counting on a big Barr turnout), none of these would shock many people. Virginia's been slowly moving into the Democratic column for a while now, and the chances are about 90% or better that Virginians will wake up after election day with TWO Democratic Senators, so Obama winning here really isn't as radical as it sounds.

This would leave as tossup states the following -- Alaska, Florida, Indiana, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, North Carolina and Texas.

But Obama wouldn't have to win a single one of them. Because while those tossups leave a total of 124 Electoral votes on the table, Barack would already be well over the finish line with 321 votes to McCain's 93.

 

Obama landslide

And just because I spent so much time playing with the numbers, for the Obamamaniacs, here is the truly "bestest" case scenario -- Obama wins in a landslide that rivals what Lyndon Baines Johnson did in 1964 (the "high water" mark for Democrats since World War II).

After all the sober analysis, in other words, it was just fun to fill in the map with an "if everything breaks Obama's way" snapshot of what total and utter victory could look like.

In this scenario, McCain not only doesn't pick up any states, he loses a single Electoral College vote in Nebraska, and also West Virginia. Barack wins all tossup states, and anywhere where the polls say he even had a shadow of a chance.

Obama wins the following glorious roll of states -- Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska (1), Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia, and West Virginia.

Barack Obama -- 451 Electoral votes.

John McCain -- 87 Electoral votes.

 

And we all lived happily ever after....

 

[Data]

Barack Obama Likely Easy Wins -- 19 States -- 219 Electoral Votes

Safe States -- 13 States -- 183 Electoral Votes
California (55), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New Jersey (15), New York (31), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11), Washington DC (3), Wisconsin (10)

Probable States -- 6 States -- 36 Electoral Votes
Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Iowa (7), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5)

 

John McCain Likely Easy Wins -- 15 States -- 93 Electoral Votes

Safe States -- 9 States -- 63 Electoral Votes
Alabama (9), Arizona (10), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Oklahoma (7), Tennessee (11), Utah (5), Wyoming (3)

Probable States -- 6 States -- 30 Electoral Votes
Arkansas (6), North Dakota (3), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Nebraska (5), West Virginia (5)

 

Tossup States -- 17 States -- 226 Electoral Votes

Tossup States leaning McCain -- 10 States -- 128 Electoral Votes
Alaska (3), Florida (27), Georgia (15), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nevada (5), North Carolina (15), Texas (34)

Tossup States leaning Obama -- 2 States -- 28 Electoral Votes
Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21)

Too Close to call -- 5 States -- 70 Electoral Votes
Colorado (9), Indiana (11), Michigan (17), Ohio (20), Virginia (13)

 

Chris Weigant blogs at: ChrisWeigant.com

 

Comments

[TrevorAlan]

The possibility for a close election is all the more reason Democrats have to not jsut "get outthe vote" but put together a strong anti-caging effort and be very pro-active at making sure all districts will have machines that work, maybe send out literature educating voters on how machines work ahead of time, making sure the authorities in charge of the voting are impartial and have trained poll workers thoroughly. Re-read all those books on how the last few elections were stolen and DON'T let it happen again.

[mvy]

The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn't have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote -- that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 19 legislative chambers (one house in Colorado, Arkansas, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and two houses in Maryland, Illinois, Hawaii, California, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Vermont). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect.

See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
Susan

[bgregs]

You're right, we shouldn't have battleground or safe states, and the national popular vote compact is a GREAT idea for fixing the problem. However, we still have the problem, and therefore we need to account for the safe and battleground states....

[Chris Weigant - Huffpost Blogger]

IF ANYONE SEES "azpaull" PLEASE LET HIM KNOW HE WON!

Sorry for the caps, just wanted to say if anyone sees azpaull posting anywhere else here on HuffPost, please let him know to check this article out. I already feel bad for not announcing the winners before now... that goes for the runners up too, please if you see them, let them know...

Thanks!

-CW

[Mildmannered]

I know that there are a number of back door ways for Obama to win, but as a practical matter he must take Ohio -- deja vu all over again.

Hopefully Hillary will campaign with and for him in the small towns in Ohio.

[Chris Weigant - Huffpost Blogger]

Mildmannered -

As pointed out below, not if he wins NM, CO, and IA, plus all the Kerry states.

But I would feel a lot better if Obama were polling ten points up in Ohio the day before the election, I have to admit...

-CW

[Mildmannered]

CW

I agree that of all the "back door ways" NM, CO and IA is the most likely. (CO is really a toss up though)

[Mildmannered]

Chris:

If Obama can't win PA and MI, both of which democrats have carried the past four elections, Obama has serious problems and the back door paths would then not be available IMHO.

[rbloom]

As I look at the maps (here's another site: www.electoral-vote.com -- it's based on most recent polling, so it's very subject to change), Michigan looms quite large in the close scenarios. I don't subscribe to the notion that a VP pick will deliver his or her home state automatically, but I do believe it could make a point or two of difference -- because I think it elevates the ground game in that state -- and that could be the difference in a nail-biter. So I'm wondering why more attention isn't being paid in the veepstakes to Gov. Granholm or Sen. Levin. I don't know the particulars of Michigan politics, but as a rule governors have the better campaign infrastructure in a state, and Granholm of course is a woman so there's that dynamic working as well.

[Chris Weigant - Huffpost Blogger]

rbloom -

Any Michiganders feel free to correct me here, but doesn't Granholm have the same problem Arnie Schwartzeneggar has? She can be VP legally, because she can't be President legally -- she was born in Canada, I think.

Too bad Bo Schembechler isn't still alive. If Obama named him VP, he'd win Michigan with about 99% of the vote!

-CW

[TommyMcCarthy]

Also, that fact that one's unqualified by temperment, and the other by experience (you guess) might be a factor in Sen.O's calculations there........................tm

[rbloom]

And with "Obama-Bo" the Democrats would be nominating the first major-party palindrome ticket. Golly, I never thought I'd see it in my lifetime. I'm starting to tear up here ...

[gdogs]

"And also because I'm not putting Texas down as a Republican lock."

I stopped reading right after this line (in fairness to the writer, i finished the article). However, if you think that Texas isn't a guaranteed state for McCain, you don't know anything about politics, and even less about Texas. McCain will claim Texas in a landslide. Won't even be anywhere near close.

[Whofreakincares]

I have to agree with my republican friend. If Austin TX was voting Obama would win. The rest of Texas are for the most part Jack Asses in my experience. And near the borders of Texas? Some of the dumbest people you are ever likely to meet.

[TommyMcCarthy]

"Wfreakin"......Lot of competition for the Gold medal in that last category there, eh?

[Chris Weigant - Huffpost Blogger]

gdogs -

I didn't put it down as a "lock" because the poll numbers have been surprisingly weak for McCain there, and also because I gave it to Obama in the landslide scenario. But in all the other three scenarios, McCain wins Texas or it doesn't matter since Obama's already won (in the third one). Realistically, I expect Texas to go for McCain. Which is why I pointed it out early on -- because Texas is so big (34 EC votes), it was skewing the "lock" numbers and showing McCain to be weaker than he most likely will be.

So I think we're actually in agreement here.

-CW

[gdogs]

Just curious as to how the Texas 34 would make McCain looker weaker than he will likely be. I mean if you just want to make it look like Obama is handliy defeating McCain in the locked up states, then I suppose leaving Texas out of the count makes since. It just seems a little disingenous.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/texas/election_2008_texas_presidential_election

[LizM]

So, what's the matter with Texas?

[TommyMcCarthy]

Hi Liz! ........From the OTHER original Joe B. supporter

What's the matter with Texas? We've all been asking ourselves that for years & years......................................................tm

[DaOne]

Obama 320

McBush 218

"That is all. Smithers release the hounds."

[Michale32086]

Anyone that puts movie/TV quotes in their posts is all right by me! :D

Michale.....

[Allen3]

Here's a website that computes the probability of each candidate winning the election based on recent poll data. It also ranks the states most likely to swing the outcome.

http://election-projection.net

The best feature though might be the interactive probability calculator:

http://election-projection.net/interactive.html

This lets you run your own numbers and see what the likely election outcome will be.

[Chris Weigant - Huffpost Blogger]

Allen3 -

Thanks for the links, I will indeed check this out.

-CW

[Chris Weigant - Huffpost Blogger]

Allen3 -

You're right. It's an amazing site to check out. I recommend it for those who aren't afraid of 190-proof straight-up statistics.

-CW

[LeeFromVA]

I think Obama will win in a close election, but he'll win his re-election by a landslide. The good feeling coming from an Obama White House will be overwhelming even to the cynics out there, and in comparison to a Bush administration, he will be seen as one of the greatest Presidents ever. The first thing he'll change is the mood of this nation. Hand over the keys W. There's a new kid in town! Oh happy day.

[arkgrfx61]

I think you are right about this one...but to add another note - we have to be very aware that they won't be an easy 4 years. It took 8 years for us to get in the quagmire we're in - it will take at LEAST 4 to just start scraping the top of the muckity muck.
BUT, I do believe that history WILL judge Barack as one of the greats, if not the greatest.

[JJK]

Thanks for having the guts to go on the record this early. Great analysis.

Your analysis is too much for my poor brain to absorb, but this is how I strip things down to the basics of an Obama win.

He holds Kerry's states (252 Electors). Wins back Iowa for sure (259). Builds on his current lead in Colorado and wins the state (268). Wins one of New Mexico or Virginia (273 or 281).

To me, the key to the election is holding Michigan and Pennsylvania, where I believe the election will be decided. Florida is probably gone already, though Obama will make McCain spend money there. Ohio too.

Anything else is gravy.

[Chris Weigant - Huffpost Blogger]

JJK -

That's certainly a reasonable estimate. And it shows how Obama could win (barely, though) without Ohio and Florida.

For a scary take on a slight variation on this (what if you're right, Obama wins NM but not VA, but McCain wins NH or ME...), check out a column I really should have saved for Halloween:

http://www.chrisweigant.com/index.php/2008/06/11/the-269-269-electoral-tie-scenario/

I think you're right, although I would put it slightly differently -- Obama has to win two out of the three: MI, OH, and PA. Unless he wins FL, which would be even better.

-CW

[TommyMcCarthy]

Fun stuff.

Chris and at least one commenter helpfully remind us that when we look BACK and discuss the 2008 Presidential election, much of what we'll be talking about has not (as of now) occurred yet. And I'm just talking about the garden variety stuff here: VP picks, the conventions, the debates....etc.
This is to say nothing of the completely unforseen bombshell (for which you can BET the Republican slime corps is now furiously scouring every back alley in the land.)

Who knows? Maybe McCain's secret "day one" bombing target list will leak and be found to contain not only Tehran and Hanoi but Berkley and West Hollywood as well! And which demographics would that actually HELP him with? .......as Chris himself might say................ ahem.

But seriously, folks: a couple of quibbles............

West Virgina just GENERICLLY belongs in the dead-bang LOCK collumn for the Republicans in ANY year.....this one especially. Among however many progressive Democrats there are in W. Va........even some of THEM probably did not take kindly to having their state portrayed as a bunch of racist ya-hoo's for supporting Hillary in the primary. The only reason I mention it is, there are likely more than a few people with similar feelings in Ohio and Pennsylvania which are CRITICAL. That's the kind of nuance that's impossible to poll, but could be significant in a squeaker.

continued.....................

[TommyMcCarthy]

..............continued

This may be a case of being too close to something to have perspective, but I can't for the life of me figure out how Oregon keeps being mentioned in the "tossup" column, especially this year. The last Rethug to squeeze an electoral vote out of us was Ronnie (as in Ray Gun) and that was only because, in those uncertain economic times alot of us were clinging to our guns, or our chuches (not to mention our chain-saws, our spotted owls) and.........well, you get the picture.......Barack already explained all this.......

You can mark it in the book today: Obama OWNS Oregon's electoral votes, I guarantee it.

But really, really, seriously folks, neither of these alters Chris' "realstic outcome" scenario, which, by my lights, is absolutely accurrate.

While I also agree that there are quite a number of ways this thing could tip into an Obama landslide (the only SENSIBLE outcome) I've been expecting a mass outbreak of intelligence and judgement on the part of the American electorate for a long time now, and, if anything, things have gotten worse......(until now??)

As July 4th approaches..........whattaya' say we fool all those that say we're TOAST......let's all go vote Democratic and keep the Republic going for a couple MORE centuries!!

Great column, as always Chris. Guess it's MY turn to apologize for being long-winded eh? Regards, and Happy Birthday, America..........have a great 4th....................................tm

[Chris Weigant - Huffpost Blogger]

TommyMcCarthy -

I hope you're right about Oregon. But why is Gordon Smith still polling ahead? Do Obama's coattails not reach down to the Senate race? Or has he convinced enough voters that because he's voted with the Democrats enough times in the past year or so that he's "moderate" enough for them? I'm kind of amazed Smith is still polling so high, myself.

"I've been expecting a mass outbreak of intelligence and judgement on the part of the American electorate for a long time now"

I had to laugh when I read that!

And I (obviously) don't mind long-winded, but the HuffPost comment bot sure seems to...

Heh heh.

-CW

[mamacat]

Thanks for the analysis.
My gut feeling at this time is that it will be an Obama landslide.
The country is tired of the lies and the spin. To actually have a chance at an intelligent, hardworking, moral President is rather ground shaking.

[JJK]

I've given up trusting my "gut" on General Elections this far out. This time in 2004, I couldn't imagine that we'd reelect Bush; I think Clinton was third behind Bush and Perot in June 1992 and I kind of believed in Dukakis' 18 point lead over 41 in 1988. So, I don't have a gut feel for how this is going to turn out. There are too many unknowns and too many volatile variables. If I had to bet the farm, I'd bet on Obama.

Hope you're right tho.

[SaraPulis]

Don't forget that Nevada all but once (1976) in most of living memory has voted for the winner. I'd stick Nevada on whichever side the winner belongs.

[Chris Weigant - Huffpost Blogger]

SaraPulis -

That's interesting. Other states make similar claims to being a "bellweather" state too, though. Most prominently (in the media at any rate), I've heard Missouri and Ohio make similar claims.

From where I sit, all three are going to be close this year.

-CW

[KQuarksSuperKollider]

This election will and always has been a referendum on Senator Obama. McBush's name does not even need to be on the ballot. Either people are voting for Obama or against Obama. Very few people are voting for McBush because it will be a continuation of the last eight years no matter what Republicans say. Once Obama builds up enough trust in this country he will win in a virtual landslide. If he is seen as too risky he will lose in a landslide. It's that simple.

[Doofus]

It's also a referendum on GWB and the fiasco of his
presidency, especially since McCain is mainly seen
as GWB's third term. That's how it will be in the blue
states, with the Obama referendum in the red states.

[JJK]

michigan and pennsylvania will need to be watched closely. by the middle of september, we will know.

[JJK]

This far out, that's as good an analysis as any. There are too many volatile variables in play for either side to take comfort at this point and it could go big either way.

[JerDogNebr]

This is EXACTLY correct. The majority of voters could care less about John McCain (whether they are R's or D's). R's won't go to the polls to vote FOR McCain, they will only go if they are uncomfortable or afraid of Sen. Obama. McCain has to frighten the D's and I's enough so that they just say home.
FauxNews will have to spin and spin about how Obama is a radical liberal, Michelle is an angry, bitter, black woman, yada yada. If Obama weathers this attack and comes across as rational, reasonable, and competent, then the election will be a blow out. If not, then look for four more years of the same old Republican incompetence.

[ORSunshine]

I want to know why McCain is polling poorly in Arizona. Would it have anything to do with the mega-impact of the subprime Mortgage crisis? Or does it have more to do with the fact that McCain's supporters are more familiar with his record and are disgusted with the amount of political shape-shifting that he's done lately?

I want some interviews of Arizonans...

[KQuarksSuperKollider]

Because they know him best or worst depending on your viewpoint.

[bgregs]

The reason is that he was very popular in 2000 as a maverick, and since 2004 he has been bush. The people know him too well, and they saw the writing on the wall, and have been abandoning him in droves...... At least that's what my dad told me from Phoenix.

[Doofus]

McCain is definitely getting the Canal Zone vote.

[Chris Weigant - Huffpost Blogger]

Doofus -

OK, now THAT was funny!!

:-)

-CW