The 2012 Republican primary election season, so far, has been a fairly normal one, at least on the surface. The "next in line" candidate (traditionally either a sitting vice president or the guy who lost the last GOP nominating contest) seems about to coast to a pretty early and pretty easy victory. Pundits everywhere are predicting Mitt Romney will win both South Carolina and Florida, and at that point they will pronounce the race all but over (except for Ron Paul's campaign, of course, which they will ignore). By the time the race solidifies into a "two-man race," one man will likely already have won the contest, to put it another way. Some folks are even predicting Mitt's inevitability, should he handily win South Carolina this weekend. If this script plays out according to the normal Republican playbook, the party will soon fall into line behind their nominee, and all agree to ignore all the things they don't like about him, to present a unified face of the party in the fall general election.
Of course, underneath this surface read of the situation, there's a roiling fight going on. This, too, isn't all that out of the ordinary for Republicans, because (after all) the second-place finish in the Republican primaries may become determinative in 2016, should Obama win a second term -- the same way Mitt's second-place finish in 2008 has set him up in this cycle. I'm not saying that's necessarily what's going to happen, but rather that it fits in with the way Republicans normally nominate people in each cycle.
It wasn't supposed to be this way, for a number of reasons. The first came from the party apparatus itself, which had determined that a prolonged primary fight was exactly what they wanted. This sounds odd, but they were attempting to apply the lesson of the Obama/Clinton showdown in 2008 -- a longer primary season supposedly toughens your eventual candidate for the fall race. To (partially) achieve this, the early-voting states had to award their delegates proportionally to the candidates, rather than the more traditional Republican method of "winner-takes-all." This would give secondary candidates a fighting chance, and avoid wrapping the race up too early. The Republican Party machine only partially bought into this scheme, as later races would revert to winner-takes-all, so that the primary battle didn't go on too long. But Mitt Romney may still wear the "inevitability" crown, post-Florida. The only thing the proportional races may change is Ron Paul arriving at the convention with a solid bloc of delegates in his pocket -- not at all what the party had planned.
The second reason this election wasn't supposed to be a normal Republican cycle was the Tea Party influence. The 2010 midterm election was virtually all about the Tea Party, for better or worse. The Tea Party Republican faction was the tail wagging the Republican Party dog, due to their outspokenness and supposed strength. But the Tea Party folks have either been extremely quiet this election cycle, or they've been so fractured that their message is indecipherable. They have reverted to being just one demographic of the Republican Party, and not any kind of majority or leading voice among the rank-and-file Republican voters.
This has led to the real race within the Republican primaries -- the race to be the prime "not-Romney" candidate. Ironically, this "not-Romney" race is killing the chances of the "not-Romney" candidate actually winning any primary races against Romney. Again, this isn't entirely out of the ordinary for Republicans -- Iowa and New Hampshire rarely set a two-man race into stone, even in the GOP. But the dream all along, for those Republicans not enamored of Mitt, has been to coalesce around one strong conservative who could take the fight to Romney, and prevent him from walking off the field with an easy victory.
The problem with this, though, was the relative weakness of the not-Romney wannabes, and the fractured nature of the campaign at the end of 2011. Candidate after candidate was supposed to be anointed "not-Romney," only to crash and burn when they got to the spotlight. Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain... all were so seriously flawed that they even lost the support of the Tea Party voters in turn. At the end, the contest devolved into one between Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum -- both also seriously flawed candidates. Ron Paul holding a solid (and ultra-committed) 10-15 percent of the voters didn't help matters, either (Paul isn't really in the running for the "conservative not-Romney" slot, he's far outside the criteria for such a candidate, as far as the voters are concerned).
Which leads us to where we find ourselves. Newt Gingrich will likely come in second place in South Carolina. The fight between Gingrich and Santorum will likely continue (at the very least) to Florida. Perry may drop out, but it won't affect this race much. Ron Paul will stay in, but this won't affect the not-Romney race much either. But even supposing that either Gingrich or Santorum knocks the other out of the running after Florida (by coming in a strong second) by that point it likely won't matter much.
Assume for the sake of argument that Newt emerges from South Carolina and Florida on top of Santorum (assume, if you wish, the other way around -- it doesn't really matter for the purposes of discussion). Then the candidates move on to eight states before Super Tuesday dawns in early March. Ron Paul may win a few surprise caucuses, or he may not. Gingrich, on the other hand, will be fighting the headwind of the entire media universe proclaiming that the race is over (and getting bored with covering the story) and the even-stronger headwind of the Republican Party apparatus screaming for him to concede the race and drop out. Add to this the fact that Gingrich will have serious problems raising money at this point, compared to Romney, who will be raking the big bucks in as the presumptive nominee.
Gingrich (or Santorum) will be relegated to "voice crying in the wilderness" status both within the party and in the media. So will Ron Paul, but for Ron Paul this is familiar territory and he knows how to operate in such a position. Gingrich, on the other hand, will get more and more desperate for attention. Which likely won't do him any good. Unless Romney stumbles in a big way, Mitt will likely be running up larger and larger victories all the way to Super Tuesday. The chances of Gingrich coming from behind and racking up enough delegates to win will become more and more mathematically improbable.
If either Gingrich or Santorum (or even Perry) had managed to cement their status as the alpha "not-Romney" in the race at this point, they might have had a chance in that fabled "two-man race" (or, more properly, "two-man-plus-Ron-Paul race"). Adding Gingrich and Santorum's support in South Carolina easily shows that Romney could have been defeated here, if the field had narrowed. Florida would even be in play, likely.
I don't blame Gingrich and Santorum for staying in as long as they have, though. Both have a very good case to make that they are the stronger candidate to take on Romney. If Gingrich places a strong second in South Carolina, this will only even the argument out between the two about how "electable" they are.
But by the time this fight is truly settled, it is likely to be too late. To use a way-too-early 2012 Olympics metaphor, it won't matter who wins the epic struggle for silver and bronze, if Mitt Romney walks off the stage with the gold medal around his neck.
Chris Weigant blogs at: 
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Peter Dreier: Occupying the GOP
2012 Primary Schedule « 2012 Election Central
South Carolina State Election Commission
South Carolina primary moves ahead | WJLA.com
2012 South Carolina Primary News, Candidates, Polls - POLITICO ...
100% precincts reporting
| Candidate | Votes | Pct. | Del. |
|---|---|---|---|
 Gingrich |
243,172 | 40.4% | 23 |
 Romney |
167,297 | 27.8% | 2 |
 Santorum |
102,061 | 17.0% | |
 Paul |
78,000 | 13.0% | |
 Others |
10,685 | 1.8% |
25 delegates — out of 2,286 — are at stake. 11 go to the statewide winner, the rest to the winner of each congressional district.
At least you go a chance to write a much longer article this time. There's a lot here to consume. I appreciate the opportunity to chew on it for three squares! LOL.
L78
Please, let Huffington Post know these sentiments, directly. They've been balking at such long articles from me, so the feedback will help me make my case to them.
-CW
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IMO, it appears that at least two significant things occurred:
1. During the fall while the TP insisted that OWS had no message, organization or objectives, outside observers began to identify commalities between the two. The louder the TP objected to these associations the clearer there parallels appeared and the stronger the associations became. Thus their message started looking not as much convoluted as not completely and exclusively unique or germane to TP coservative interest.
2. The failure of the Supercommittee and the ensuing battle over the extension of Unemployment compensation and continuation of the Payroll Taxe cut seemed to represent a "Custer's last stand." The TP faction went all in with their objection and resistence, fully expecting the balance of the party to provide sufficient gravity in the House to enforce the GOP will. However, McConnell's deal and Boehner's capitulation forced political the tide to ebb and washed the sand from beneath the feet of the TP. At that moment they lost significant relevance and credibility that they may not be able to recapture.
Hope I got your login name right, it's tough to tell the difference between capital "i" and the numeral 1 in the font I use...
Your comment is amazingly well-thought out, and amazingly perceptive. Both parts of it.
Just had to say that. It's rare I run into someone with your level of insight in comments, here. Well done. The post-SOTU Congress in February is going to be interesting, that's for sure, as the battle between Boehner and the TP base plays out...
-CW
You are indeed correct. Here it is the 20th, and I just called SC for Newt, with Romney coming in second. This has been one of the most volatile primaries I can recall, personally.
Florida is certainly going to be interesting, that's for sure.
:-)
-CW
Gawd, I hate Romney. I just can not see myself pulling a lever for him, no matter how much I said I was going to vote Red this year no matter what.
The more I look at the whole thing though, the calls of finding the 'Anti-Romney' helped Romney secure this thing. The media pushed him down our throats from the beginning. Even the calls of the 'Anti-Romney' were just another not so subtle hint....That Romney should be the eventual nominee....so get in line good little republican sheep, and vote with who we tell you too.
I do not know if the Republican Party can still function if they lose this election. The only thing holding it together right now, is a hatred for Obama. How is that going to work in 2016 if they lose in 2012?
By my count (which could be wrong, I fully admit, I can go research it if you really push me), Romney won 11 primary contests, Huckabee 8, and McCain all the rest. That puts Romney in second place, although if you counted it by delegates, maybe Huckabee would be in second, I dunno. A lot of Romney wins were in the Mountain West, which isn't as populous as the South, where Huckabee was strong.
Depends on how you define "second" I guess.
But I do feel for you, with the current field of Republican canndidates to choose between. Not to be insulting, but it does indeed resemble Democratic fields in years past, where voters were presented with the choice of "this guy's the electable guy, even if he's Caspar Milquetoast" and "this guy breathes fire for the base, but there's no way he's ever going to be elected."
My condolences.
-CW
either way, its an image that i wished had never been tattooed in my cerebrum....
I was speaking purely hypothetically, I assure you. Heh.
-CW
Quite true, or at least that's what the party leaders are hoping for. They're also hoping that their voters never realize what a charade this whole thing has been. Mittens has been the moneys man from day one, and the party had no intention of letting anyone else seriously challenge their decision, which is why they all the clowns on the train. To amuse the masses and fool them into thinking they had a choice.
Whatever happens in the GOP race for the Republican presidential nomination, and regardless of how it all turns out in the end, it won't really matter much.
And, that is precisely as it should be. :)
No, no, I'd put it: No matter how the media hypes it, the GOP guy with the most money is going to win... yet again. Oooh! Big surprise!!!
Heh.
-CW
Haven't you neglected the Cain Train proxy for Steven Colbert? I think that bears consideration. For amusement value if nothing else.
Ah, but will it make any difference? That's the real question. Even if Newt does well, will he be able to build on it?
-CW