Gas prices up, Obama polls down
This is going to be the shortest one of these columns I've ever done.
Every so often, I write a column and it is out of date very soon after it is published. On occasion, my columns are out of date as they are published, because I cannot read the news and write at the same time. But I don't think I've ever written a column before which was probably out of date before I even wrote it. That describes this month's Obama Poll Watch column, however, because the news of Obama's polling numbers in April is already secondhand news. So I wouldn't blame you a bit if you just skipped the whole column entirely, this month.
The death of Osama Bin Laden on the second day of this month has overshadowed Obama's poll numbers from last month already. Obama's poll numbers in May are going to be a lot more interesting (to put it mildly) than his poll numbers from April are going to be. I realize all of this, but I still (for completeness' sake) feel obligated to put out this monthly report of where Obama stood last month with the public.
As I said, this is going to be a very short column, far shorter than our usual in-depth look at what is going on in the polling world. Let's just start with our monthly chart:
[Click on graph to see larger-scale version.]
April,2011
April was a pretty miserable month for Barack Obama, poll-wise. It cannot be denied -- Obama slid heavily in the polls last month, mostly due to the high price of gasoline at the pump. Continued good news at the beginning of the month on the unemployment front barely registered, as American drivers saw gas prices jump steeply to over four bucks a gallon.
Obama's poll numbers continued the same trend set last month, and the average of his job approval ratings fell 1.7 percent, after falling 1.3 percent the month before, a total slip of 3.0 percent in two months' time. Obama ended the month at 46.4 percent approval. His disapproval numbers suffered an even steeper change. After climbing 1.9 points in March, Obama's disapproval average rose 1.8 percent last month, to end at 48.2 percent. This puts Obama only slightly better than he was last December, erasing almost all gains since then.
Overall Trends
For the second time in his presidency, Obama's approval numbers crossed over his disapproval numbers. But this period of being "underwater" will be a lot shorter than the last one, because May is already shaping up to be one of Obama's best months ever, for one very obvious reason.
The two questions right now among those who pay attention to polling are how big a bump Obama will get from the successful killing of Osama Bin Laden, and how long it will last. But whatever the answers to those two turn out to be, May is going to be a very good month for President Obama in the polls. By June, his numbers may settle back down, but May looks like a victory lap for Obama in the polls, at this point.
[Obama Poll Watch Data:]
Sources And Methodology
ObamaPollWatch.com is an admittedly amateur effort, but we do try to stay professional when it comes to revealing our sources and methodology. All our source data comes from RealClearPolitics.com; specifically from their daily presidential approval ratings "poll of polls" graphic page. We take their daily numbers, log them, and then average each month's data into a single number -- which is then shown on our monthly charts here (a "poll of polls of polls," if you will...). You can read a much more detailed explanation of our source data and methodology on our "About Obama Poll Watch" page, if you're interested.
Questions or comments? Use the Email Chris page to drop me a private note.
Column Archives
[Mar 11], [Feb 11], [Jan 11], [Dec 10], [Nov 10], [Oct 10], [Sep 10], [Aug 10], [Jul 10], [Jun 10], [May 10], [Apr 10], [Mar 10], [Feb 10], [Jan 10], [Dec 09], [Nov 09], [Oct 09], [Sep 09], [Aug 09], [Jul 09], [Jun 09], [May 09], [Apr 09], [Mar 09]
Obama's All-Time Statistics
Monthly
Highest Monthly Approval -- 2/09 -- 63.4%
Lowest Monthly Approval -- 8/10 -- 45.3%
Highest Monthly Disapproval -- 9/10 -- 49.7%
Lowest Monthly Disapproval -- 1/09 -- 19.6%
Daily
Highest Daily Approval -- 2/15/09 -- 65.5%
Lowest Daily Approval -- 10/17/10 -- 44.2%
Highest Daily Disapproval -- 9/26/10 -- 51.2%
Lowest Daily Disapproval -- 1/29/09 -- 19.3%
Obama's Raw Monthly Data
[All-time high in bold, all-time low underlined.]
Month -- (Approval / Disapproval / Undecided)
04/11 -- 46.4 / 48.2 / 5.4
03/11 -- 48.1 / 46.4 / 5.5
02/11 -- 49.4 / 44.5 / 6.1
01/11 -- 48.5 / 45.7 / 5.8
12/10 -- 45.5 / 48.1 / 6.4
11/10 -- 45.5 / 49.0 / 5.5
10/10 -- 45.5 / 49.1 / 5.4
09/10 -- 45.7 / 49.7 / 4.6
08/10 -- 45.3 / 49.5 / 5.2
07/10 -- 46.6 / 47.4 / 6.0
06/10 -- 47.6 / 46.7 / 5.7
05/10 -- 48.1 / 45.5 / 6.4
04/10 -- 47.8 / 46.5 / 5.7
03/10 -- 48.1 / 46.4 / 5.5
02/10 -- 47.9 / 46.1 / 6.0
01/10 -- 49.2 / 45.3 / 5.5
12/09 -- 49.4 / 44.9 / 5.7
11/09 -- 51.1 / 43.5 / 5.4
10/09 -- 52.2 / 41.9 / 5.9
09/09 -- 52.7 / 42.0 / 5.3
08/09 -- 52.8 / 40.8 / 6.4
07/09 -- 56.4 / 38.1 / 5.5
06/09 -- 59.8 / 33.6 / 6.6
05/09 -- 61.4 / 31.6 / 7.0
04/09 -- 61.0 / 30.8 / 8.2
03/09 -- 60.9 / 29.9 / 9.2
02/09 -- 63.4 / 24.4 / 12.2
01/09 -- 63.1 / 19.6 / 17.3
ObamaPollWatch site: 
Chris Weigant blogs at: 
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
Follow Chris Weigant on Twitter: www.twitter.com/ChrisWeigant
http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/house/159397-obama-floats-plan-to-tax-cars-by-the-mile
but, but,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHlRY3kHhBk
shhhh, now, that promise was already broken by healthcare...
yes we can...
For the record, I think you do a very good, thoughtful, fair analysis. But I don't think a bump from the bin Laden killing is an indication of anything. And I'm not even seeing much of a bump, frankly, for such a huge event as finally finding/killing the big guy. I suspect that's because the American people are (correctly, IMO) crediting the military and CIA, with Obama coming in at third place, according to Gallup. The days ahead remain to be see, as you've noted. Lord knows, the White House is trying to milk this to the campaign's advantage, every which way from Sunday. But I don't anticipate this bin Laden event having much, if any, ultimate impact on the election. That's gonna be all about this not-so-pretty picture: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20027090-503544.html
Progressives in general, myself included, couldn't be more ecstatic about Obama, a Democrat, taking bin Laden down, but that won't help him much next year: it doesn't erase profound disappointment in his insistence on "bipartisanship" and "compromise" (i.e.: being a Blue Dog) and the negative effect that has had on preserving core Democratic values and advancing core Democratic programs. Republicans, of course, will simply continue to cynically deploy divisive proxy issues that trade on his race, which continues to work for them; TPers, birthers and Neo-Cons are already refusing to credit Obama for ridding the world of bin Laden.
Only an amalgam of state-by-state polls weighted by each state's Electoral College vote (of the sort electoral-vote.com used to track) will be meaningful, going forward, however interesting the trends in Obama's generic approval ratings remain.
You mean, like this?
http://tinyurl.com/3kghxbn
Go to obamapollwatch.com and look at the bottom of the right-hand sidebar. There's a list of columns I did (the final one is that link above) on "Electoral Math" for 2008, which are exactly what you describe (I even got my data from electoral-vote.com). Although the first GOP debate (shudder) is tonight, I'm going to wait a bit longer before reviving the EM column series. Next year, next year.... For now, OPW will continue to track approval ratings (a separate thing from electoral chances, although obviously related somewhat).
You're right about the importance of redistricting, have to agree on that one.
-CW
Yes! Absolutely like that, Chris.
I look forward with joy to seeing your forthcoming Electoral Math columns, having relied primarily on electoral-Âvote.com the last two presidential elections--and with the sad possibility that electoral-Âvote.com may not be around this time. (You do valuable work and do it well. I'm proud to be a fan. Thanks, as always, for following the comments.)
I, for one, am going to hold you to that.
And, if May is not a good month for Obama in the polls, then you may as well just forget about writing that column at all and, as far as that goes, put an end to OPW, altogether.
I'm kidding, of course ... about the second part, that is. :)
>May is going to be a very good month for President Obama in the polls.
Only 5 days but after his "bounce". Doesn't sound very good to me.
In any event, what do you think accounts for this result?
What he needs to do to keep his numbers high is to remind the voter of his talents and skills in keeping America safe and in crushing AQ by comparing his record today not to Bush's (that leaves him open to the charge of still blaming Bush) but to what his political opponents here today are saying about him:
-Palin refuses to speak his name.
-Numerous conservative commentators are saying he acted illegally in eliminating OBL.
-ersatz "birthers" are claiming something fishy because no photos released
Comparing and contrasting what he did TODAY to what his opponents are saying about him TODAY lets him keep his sucessful record in front of the voter on the war issue wirhout apppearing petty by reliving the past.
He also gets to "Trump" them by again taking the hot wind out of their sails.
You're kidding, right? He's using Ground Zero, today, as a backdrop for yet another speech on the subject. Sunday, he's got a him, him, him 60 Minutes program airing. Class act? He's been glory-grabbing the spotlight away from the real heroes — the intel operatives and SEALS6 Team — since the assault went down. Do you see him using the CIA building as his backdrop today, or conducting a ceremony at a military base or building, e.g., the Pentagon? No, it's straight down to Ground Zero.
He's not giving a speech, he's laying a wreath. He will then meet with the families of 9/11 privately. He invited Bush along. Do you really have a problem with any of that? The man is the country's leader, and if he wants to lay a wreath at GZ, how is that a bad thing in any way shape or form? Should Bush have gone there after it happened?
Sheesh.
-CW
And why do you not include Obama as one of the "real heroes?"
I mean, he set the plans in motion to get the guy. He said on the campaign trail THREE years ago exactly what he was going to do to get OBL. He had other options offered to him, but made the call himself with all the liabilities that choice entailed.
That fact that you think the death of OBL occurred in spite of Obama and not BY Obama, because you do not consider him one of the heroes, reveals a lot.