Place Your Bets! Call Pennsylvania And The Nomination

Since we've got a primary tomorrow, it's (once again) time to "put up or shut up," and make a prediction for Pennsylvania. Plus, since it's also appropriate, we'll continue the contest to pick the date when the nomination will be locked up, and what the outcome will be, at the end of the column.

It's been a long six weeks since we last played this game, and I'm just relieved that in the intervening time, the media and both campaigns had enough time to accurately identify and portray the relative positions of each candidate on a range of important issues on which they have honest differences; issues that everyday Americans actually care about as being relevant to their lives.

Ha! (Belated) April Fool!

No, instead, we got more of the same. Sigh.

In any case, since tomorrow's primary day, it's time for another round of "primary picks." I started this series at the beginning of this year's race, because I firmly believe that political commentators should have the cojones to do exactly what every local television sportscaster does -- publish our "picks" for the upcoming contest. This allows readers to see how accurate our crystal balls really are when adding up how many times we get it right.

So far, my track record has been pretty good -- far above the 50/50 result of tossing a coin. Out of 50 Democratic races, I've picked 34 right (68%) and out of 50 Republican races I've done slightly better at 37 right (74%).

 

Pennsylvania Primary Pick

Tomorrow's contest in Pennsylvania is going to be a lot closer than anyone expected, say... three weeks ago. Hillary Clinton had a monstrous lead here, but it has been whittled away to single digits. Barack Obama sank a lot of money into this state, and it looks like it paid off for him, to a certain extent.

Of course, there have been "silly season" gaffes by both sides -- surprising unforced errors from two campaigns that, up until fairly recently, have been extremely tightly run. What effect this will have on the general election (for the eventual nominee) has yet to be seen. Dire predictions one way or the other can mostly be ignored for now, since November is a long way away.

But Hillary's core supporters seem to be holding firm, and Obama is picking up a lot of new voters... but probably not enough to get him across the finish line here. My prediction is that Hillary Clinton will win Pennsylvania by four or five percentage points, but not by the double-digit lead that she really would prefer. When the delegates are counted, Clinton will only pick up ten or (at the absolute most) fifteen more than Obama -- which is just not enough to cut into his lead (he currently leads among pledged delegates by around 170).

That's my pick, what's yours?

Total correct Democratic picks so far: 34 for 50.
Total correct 2008 Republican picks: 37 for 50.
Total overall correct picks: 71 for 100 -- 71%.

[Previous states' picks:]

[AK] [AL] [AR] [AZ] [CA] [CO] [CT] [DE] [FL (R)] [GA] [HI (D)] [IA] [ID (D)] [IL] [KS (D)] [KS (R)] [LA] [MA] [MD] [ME (D)] [MI (R)] [MN] [MO] [MS] [MT (R)] [ND] [NE (D)] [NH] [NJ] [NM (D)] [NV] [NY] [OH] [OK] [RI] [SC (D)] [SC (R)] [TN] [TX] [UT] [VA] [VT] [WA] [WI] [WV (R)] [WY (D)] [Washington, D.C.] [Virgin Islands (D)]

 

Call the outcome of the whole race!

For those of you who haven't thrown a marker down, I've also got a betting pool going on what day the whole Magilla will be over, and what the outcome of the Democratic nomination fracas will be. From the original column:

We haven't done a contest here in a while, so I'm going to open the betting window today on the outcome of the Democratic race. To play, just post a comment with the date and the outcome you predict will happen.

As an example, here is my entry: Hillary Clinton does great in Pennsylvania, but loses both North Carolina and Indiana, and drops out the next day.

A few rules: You can't just say "the convention," you have to pick a specific day during the convention. You have to say who wins the nomination, but you don't necessarily have to give details of how they manage to do so if you don't want to, that part is just for fun. All betting will be in quatloos, this column's favorite standard fictional currency. Ties will be broken by a battle to the death in the Triskelion arena... um... or maybe I'll just flip a coin.

Here are some key dates to remember (number of delegates in parentheses):

• April 22 -- Pennsylvania (188) votes


• May 3 -- Guam (9) votes


• May 6 -- North Carolina (134) and Indiana (84) vote


• May 13 -- West Virginia (39) votes


• May 20 -- Kentucky (60) and Oregon (65) vote


• June 1 -- Puerto Rico (63) votes


• June 3 -- Montana (24) and South Dakota (23) vote


• August 25, 26, 27, 28 -- Democratic National Convention in Denver

So, step right up and place your bets! I will open the bidding with 100 quatloos on "Barack wins it through default, when Hillary bows out on May 7."

I'll announce the winner after it happens (if nobody gets it dead-on, whoever's closest will win), right here in this column.

Step right up! Lay your money down!!

So far, we've had quite a few entries. I've had to change the rules slightly, because so many people are picking the same days (most noticeably, May 7th). So if you pick a day someone else has, please provide a time (East coast) when the news will break. Also, some on this list are incomplete, so if you see yourself, be sure to clarify your bet.

To clarify my bet, since 11:00 A.M. is taken, I will throw my marker down on an earlier press conference, and call it at 10:00 A.M.

The other rule change is that since many of you felt "quatloos" was just too silly to type, I have put everyone who didn't specify an amount down for a standard 100-quatloo bet (100Q).

So here's how the list currently looks, in chronological order (for details on these bets, see the original article's comments section here at Huffington Post):

4/28 -- Michale32086 -- 10,000 Quatloos, dresses in Star Trek garb if loses -- Obama wins, Clinton forced out.

5/6 (late) or 5/7 (whenever NC/IN results are in) -- PioneerKing -- 100Q, insane side bet on Nader -- Clinton wins, Obama drops out.

5/7, 10:00AM Eastern -- [your humble bookmaker] -- 100Q -- Obama wins, Clinton drops out.

5/7, 11:00AM Eastern -- chlllfactor -- 100Q -- Obama wins, Clinton drops out (not quietly)

5/7 -- PingMama -- 100Q, side bet with hubby for diamond earrings -- Obama wins, Clinton drops out.

5/7 -- stavros -- 100Q -- Obama by default, Clinton switches parties (!)

5/8 -- Halfwit -- 100Q -- Obama wins, Clinton drops out.

5/20 -- Kishadawn -- 100Q -- Obama wins, Clinton drops out

5/22 -- grendl -- 100Q at special 2:1 odds for excellent "Aliens" quote -- Barack wins.

6/4 -- MilwaukeeMarc -- 100Q -- Obama wins, Clinton drops out

6/4 -- PioneerKing -- 100Q -- Clinton wins, Obama drops out

6/9 (word on street 6/7) -- azpaull -- 100Q -- Obama wins, Clinton forced out by party leaders.

6/11 -- Thatcher -- 2025 quatloos (an appropriate bet!) -- Obama wins by delegate count.

6/21 -- nypoet22 -- 100Q -- Joint press conference, Clinton drops out to become Obama's VP candidate.

8/27 -- DemandTruth -- 10Q -- Third day of the convention, Clinton takes it.

(convention) -- fullkelly -- 100Q -- Clinton wins

(convention) -- PingMama's hubby -- 100Q -- Clinton (?)

[These last two are incomplete bets -- fullkelly and PingMama'sSpouse -- I need convention dates to properly register your bets. Also, I'm assuming PingMama'sSpouse is betting on Clinton at the convention, but I could be wrong...]

So step right up and lay your quatloos down! Who will walk away the winner of the Democratic nomination? When will it happen? And how will we know it's (finally) over?

Since we're approaching the first date selected, this really has to be the last chance to make a prediction. The betting window's almost closed, folks, so toss a dart at the calendar and take a chance today... don't be shy... you know you want to!

 

Chris Weigant blogs at: ChrisWeigant.com

 

Comments

[katefranklin]

I think Clinton's victory celebration should be tempered by the responses from superdelegates. If they do not trickle in at an increased rate after Pennsylvania, then there is no definitive reason for her to continue. Today in Pennsylvania is as much a contest over pledged delegates, as it is a contest over the hearts and minds of the supers.

[spermwhale]

The pollsters continue to be wrong and here"s why; Most polls are run through aggregating calls to home phones. Obama continues to dominate 18 to 31 demographics across the board. Clearly the conservative 6 to 8% lead poll consensus continue to give Clinton, might be disappear in a heart beat if you include the number of cell phones representing this younger demographic that will never be reached!

Pennsylvania will be a major "get!" I give the nod to Obama. Think about this one Chris!

[BillZBubb]

Perhaps you'd like to recycle your crystal ball?

Obama is a weak candidate.

[chlllfactor]

Might as well throw in my two cents. Clinton will win PA, but by a very small margin (3%-5%). Obama will maintain his delegate lead. It is possible for Obama to win BOTH IN and NC - 5% to 17% respectively. Obama will win the nomination and the presidency. Hillary will stay in the race until at least after NC. By that time enough superdelegates will voice their support to Senator Obama (which seems to be the only 'hope' for Clinton) and the nomination race will be over. The only aleration to this forecast is if by some miracle, Obama wins PA - then, all bets are off.

[SamThornton]

Obama 51%, Clinton 47%, Nader 1%, Mickey Mouse 1%.

By sundown on April 23, 100+ superdelegates announce for Obama. Clinton vows to soldier on, claiming Pennsylvania was actually a victory and loans her campaign another $10 million.

[4wehttam]

I say Clinton wins Pa by 7%, loses IN by4% and loses NC by 15%.

I don't predict that she will drop out until the very end and maybe even until the convention. She is not going down easy and she'll do WHATEVER it takes, and I mean WHATEVER it takes to win.

[wheresthebeef]

Clinton takes PA by 7 points, there's a flood of super delegates declaring for Obama on Wednesday, Clinton stays in until after IN (which she wins by 2) and NC (which she loses by 14), and drops out immediately thereafter. Once the Dems internecine fight is over, Obama goes after McCain, who falls behind Obama by 10-12 points post-Dem convention and never catches up.

[ComicBookGuy]

Obama wins the nomination, but the margin is so narrow and the party is so divided, that Clinton decides to continue running as an independent, because she might have just enough support to edge out Obama and McCain in a 3-way race if she puts her $109 million into it.

[nypoet22]

my trifecta: clinton wins PA by 10%, loses NC by 15%, wins IN by 2% and concedes the nomination to obama in mid to late june.

[nypoet22]

winner! how many q's do i get if i successfully predict all three?

[JayJ1130]

I think the polls have been undercounting the new voters who registered for Obama and predict that Clinton will win but by a squeaker, 2 to 3 points. She will drop out Wednesday afternoon at 2:00. I have 5000 quatloos on it.

[LumberingOaf]

Clinton will win by a small margin. It won't be enough to win the nomination, which will go ot Obama.

Later this year, McCain, while getting ready for the Republican Convention, will slip and fall in the shower, breaking his hip. While wheeling the naked, wet nominee into the ambulance, he will catch a cold. The cold will develop into double pnemonia, and since McCain's immune system already kicked off at 69, the senator from Arizona will sucumb shortly thereafter.

Romney, seeing an opportunity, will unsuspend his campaign.

Obama wins by a landslide.

I may be off about Clinton, Obama might win by a small margin, instead.

[loper2008]

I'm going to say she wins PA by 2-5 points. Obama hinted that it would be close and I think he wouldn't raise expectations for no good reason.

[BillZBubb]

Care to rethink about Obama's intentions? Obama's whole schtick is to raise expectations.

[Livvy]

Hillary wins but anywhere close to 10 would be great for Obama considering her base and where the polls were going in.

Obama wins the nomination and the presidency.

[Powderhound522]

100 quatloos - As soon as possible, just please god let it end already!

[BillZBubb]

Clinton wll win Pennsylvania.

Obama will win the nomination. Obama will lose to McCain. No Democrat who hasn't won most of the big state primaries has ever won the general election. Obama will be no exception.

When Obama loses to McCain the Obama followers will attempt to blame the Clintons. That is the shared value of the far right and Obama followers. It's all Clinton's fault!

[ComicBookGuy]

So what if Obama didn't win the "big state" primaries? Those other Democrats weren't running against HIllary Clinton!

[grendl]

When this country finds out McCains medical record, coupled with the fact that he's a hot head, coupled with the fact that he has no exit strategy from Iraq, and no strategy to win a war without clear cut objectives save for instilling democracy in a tribal sectarian nation that could give a rats ass about patriotism to a centralized government comprising their rivals, coupled with the fact that this war has lasted longer than WW2 for this country, with no end in sight..well that's a lot of unhappy couples.

You just want McCain to win out of a disdain for Barack Obama. No loyal democrat would say he can't win. Only a true blue racist would. If a white male were pulling his numbers this wouldn't be a discussion.

But we shall see what the future holds, nostra damn us...

[BillZBubb]

You post is absurd. First off, I've written many times I think Obama would make a good president--better than ANY Republican. Check my profile. I just don't think he will get elected.

Second, trying to pull the race card on me is pathetic and a cheap shot worthy of Obama supporters. I don't care if Obama is pink, yellow, maroon, white, or purple. What I care about is that we get a Democrat in the White House in 2009.

Obama's lead in delegates and popular vote is entirely due to big wins in southern primaries. Those states will ALL go to McCain in November. Your hand waving and wishful thinking don't change that fact.

In the states the Democrats must win to get the electoral college, Hillary Clinton holds a commanding lead over Obama. This is not rocket science. Well, maybe it is in a way. Using whats is called "Game Theory" in mathematics, logic dictates you should disregard the results in the states you are probably going to lose and concentrate on the results where you have a chance to win.

So far, I am right on the first prediction. Hillary Clinton won Pennsylvania in a landslide. I'll be right on the others too. You'll see.

[Countess]

Clinton will win big in Pennsylvania as in Ohio there are many working class racist democrats and the women over 50 are more than solidly for her. She will win by 12 or so.