To most Democrats, Texas Governor Rick Perry's candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination has so far seemed somewhat of a joke. At least until now, that is. The Lefty blogosphere has indeed been having a field day ever since Perry announced, over some of Perry's off-the-cuff comments, both past and present. Today's news, however, should go a long way towards forcing Democrats to start taking Perry seriously -- because according to multiple opinion polls (the first national polls released after Perry jumped in the race), Mitt Romney is no longer the "frontrunner." Perry is. By double-digits. [Poll data is available from both Real Clear Politics and the Huffington Post, if you're interested.]
This should force pundits across the political spectrum to re-evaluate Rick Perry's campaign. Instead of seeing through the lens of: "What my circle of friends thinks of Rick Perry's gaffes," this time the pundits should focus a little more closely on: "What Republican primary voters think of Rick Perry as a candidate." Because, so far, they seem to be flocking to support Perry -- to the visible detriment of Mitt Romney's standing in the polls.
The lesson Democrats never seem to learn is that what they look for in a presidential candidate is just not the same as what Republican primary voters look for. While Democrats were filled with mirth over Perry's comments (on all sorts of subjects) in the past few weeks, they didn't notice that not many people over in the Republican base were laughing. "How can a person be taken seriously as a presidential candidate who says/believes X?" was the refrain from the Left, while over on the Right, many voters were actually just fine with Perry's comments. Perhaps checking some opinion polling among the American public at large, on the subjects of evolution and global warming (for instance) might help.
Of course, this all may be a momentary bump for Perry. He's the newest candidate on the Republican scene, and we've had quite a few of these "flavor of the month" poll bumps already this year. Perhaps his numbers will fade, and Mitt Romney will once again re-emerge as the one leading the pack of contenders. Then again, perhaps not. About the only sure bet right now is to lay money on Romney soon emerging from his self-imposed shell, and start actually campaigning in the next few weeks.
Those who knew Perry in Texas have said all along that he's going to be a force to be reckoned with in the Republican race. Today, people are beginning to give this opinion a bit more weight. Not only has Perry won every political race he's ever run in, he is also from the largest state in the Republican electoral firmament, and he commands a base of wealthy fundraisers the other Republican candidates must envy. Being from Texas might give pause to independent voters in the general election, but it is a major plus for Perry in terms of fundraising and in terms of being the favorite throughout the entire South during primary season.
Perry could easily win two of the first four primary races -- Iowa and South Carolina. He's probably not going to do as well in New Hampshire, but he may be the favorite heading into Florida. From Super Tuesday on, it's hard not to see how Perry could cut a path to victory.
Perry's biggest drawback is that he does make some Republicans nervous. Some of these Republicans are quite powerful, either behind the scenes in the party machinery or out in public in the Republican commentariat. They may all wind up biting the bullet and falling in behind Romney before this whole thing is over. The real test is whether their influence in today's Tea-Party-infused Republican voter base is as powerful as it used to be -- which is truly an open question, at this point.
Of course, none of this even begins to address what Perry's chances against Barack Obama would be next year, but this may be immaterial to his chances of winning the Republican nomination. Some voters always wind up voting on the "electability" question, but that may not be as true this time around as it once was. The voters who bear the closest scrutiny, on this question, are likely the (fairly moderate) suburban Republican voters who may be concerned with how some of the things Perry says are going to stack up next to Barack Obama's campaign rhetoric.
Some Democrats may even now be viewing Perry's rise in the polls with glee. The reasoning behind this will be: "Let's hope they pick their worst candidate, to improve our guy's chances!" This, however, can be quite dangerous. OK, sure, in the midterms Republicans blew several quite-winnable Senate races (see: Christine O'Donnell, Sharron Angle) by nominating some pretty far-out Tea Party candidates. But this sort of wishful thinking also has a long history of backfiring.
Remember all the Democrats who greeted the nomination of George W. Bush with joy? Remember how easy that Texas buffoon was going to be for Al Gore to crush? Dubya spent two terms in the White House. Older Democrats will also remember the relief which the Carter White House greeted the news that the Republicans had nominated that absolute joke of a candidate, Ronald Reagan. He also served two terms (three, if you count George H.W. Bush's term as a Reaganite victory lap). Be careful what you wish for, in other words.
But no matter how Democrats (or Republicans, for that matter) are currently viewing Rick Perry's candidacy, one thing is for certain. From now on, Rick Perry is going to be taken a lot more seriously. By everyone.
Chris Weigant blogs at: 
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PLEASE tell me when in American history, a depression of the size and scope we are now dealing with was eradicated in the space of TWO YEARS???
Everybody want to be the first to predict the outcomes of elections the way we predict earthquakes!
WE DON'T!
If some earth shaking political break through is imminent someone will be able to claim to be a profit. ON the other side someone is predicting Perry will become a joke covering all the bets!
Thanks media!
For giving hope to fools, fear to the sucked in readers, or possibly a scoop that will afford you your own Drudge like credibility. To those who flipped the coin and bet on Perry being a joke, if you have the patients we'll know far off down the line whom that the joke is on.
I don't pretend to know but predictions this early are like grasping at straws
Yeah, but what ELSE are we pundits supposed to do for the next six or seven months? At least grasping at straws provides some entertainment for those who are already paying attention, no?
:-)
-CW
"I was young then, and not too bright -- a legate fresh out of West Point, and a guardsman in the Angels of the Lord, the personal guard of the Prophet Incarnate. At birth my mother had consecrated me to the Church and at eighteen my Uncle Absalom, a senior lay censor, had prayed an appointment to the Military Academy for me from the Council of Elders."
We can only hope for stout men like John Lyle if that future ever comes to pass, that's all I have to say.
If this goes on... you'll probably find me in Coventry....
:-)
-CW
We "left wing ultra radical anti-Americans" also believe in teaching SPELLING in school!
He's got good hair, good presence on the stump, and seems like a guy you could have a beer with. These seeem to be all some voters need to sway them.
W only had two out of these three and got elected twice.
Help with respect to what? Enhance the understanding of evolution? Undo global warming? I don't understand.
Did it ever occur to you that you're not the only one suffering from the madness and ignorance of others?
My comment was poking fun. I did read the article.
On Darwin’s Birthday, Only 4 in 10 Believe in Evolution
Belief drops to 24% among frequent church attenders
by Frank Newport
PRINCETON, NJ -- On the eve of the 200th anniversary of Charles Darwin's birth, a new Gallup Poll shows that only 39% of Americans say they "believe in the theory of evolution," while a quarter say they do not believe in the theory, and another 36% don't have an opinion either way. These attitudes are strongly related to education and, to an even greater degree, religiosity.\
http://www.gallup.com/poll/114544/darwin-birthday-believe-evolution.aspx
But the numbers above are misleading because a large number of Americans believe that God had a hand in the evolutionary process and thus are closer to the beliefs of Gov Perry, or at least less like to discount him because of those beliefs
Now only about 40% believe in strict creationism but over 30% believe in God planned and guided that evolution.
America remains a largely God Believing Nation.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/145286/four-americans-believe-strict-creationism.aspx
The point Mr Weigant is making is that while Progressives can laugh at the beliefs of Gov Perry on issues like that, a lot of voters are not that far away from him in their beliefs.
Just a little later, a one billion inhabitant subcontinent was free again.
Alright I'll admit that I employed a present-day equivalent of the number of inhabitants. I also don't truly believe that Texas should somehow "do the India" thing - despite geographical or geometric similarities.
Thank you for doing the research I was too lazy to do. Just had to say that.
Your data makes exactly the point I was asking Democratic pundits and poobahs to consider: just because you think a GOP candidate is unelectable because he/she believes X, that doesn't mean the electorate (especially in a partisan primary) is going to think the same thing.
Well done, I salute you for doing my work for me!
-CW
So what should Obama run on, the 9+% unemployment he had his entire term? The shakey economy? The further collapse of the inner cities and Infrastructure? The war he got us engaged in in Libya? The closing of Gitmo? The fact that as of today all the troops are out of Iraq? (they are not if you don't know). The fact he sent more troops to Afghanistan then Bush did? His great plan for dealing with illegal immigration? Healthcare plan that is wildly unpopular? Higher gas prices? Poor response to the BP disaster?
Ok we got Bin Laden on his watch and he learned to bowl. But I am not voting for him based on that!!
yes the republicans are working to create jobs but the obstructionists in the Democrat controlled Senate are blocking those attempts.
See: http://kingston.house.gov/blog/?postid=249593