We Got It Wrong. New Hampshire Voters Got It Right.

On the morning after the New Hampshire primary, one strong conclusion can be drawn: the media collectively blew it. This should be seen as downright liberating to the 48 states which have not voted yet. Because it means that everyone who hasn't yet voted should now rightfully conclude: "Those guys don't know what they're talking about. I'm voting for who I really want to win. Who knows, maybe they will!" To paraphrase (no relation to Hillary, of course) the immortal words of George Clinton: Free your mind, and your vote will follow.

Now, normally I do my fair share of condemning the mainstream media for their stupefyingly obtuse and superficial behavior (to be honest, they make it really easy for me to do so). But on this one, I've got to take the heat with the rest of them. I, too, blew it. I saw the polls, and (while not believing in any single one of them) I did believe in the trend. I thought Barack Obama had it sewn up. Until the results started coming in. As Mark Twain (or maybe it was Disraeli) once said: "There are three types of lie: a lie, a damned lie, and statistics."

While I was wrong, I had no lack of company. Pretty much everyone in the chattering classes also got it wrong. We all read the same polls, and we all came to the same conclusion. And we were all wrong.

I realize that the Monday morning quarterbacking is already under way. As a pundit (or someone who plays one on the web), I am at this time supposed to be telling you why we all blew it... and reassuring you that it won't happen again.

Maybe it was Hillary's emotion the other day, swaying women voters. Or it was Hillary's going negative against Barack. It was the warm weather. It could have been the fact that most people hang up on pollsters. Or it was the sampling and weighting methodologies of the polls themselves. Or the large margin of error involved in a state so small. It was Venus rising in Sagittarius, with Mars on the ascendant in Virgo. It was the "Bradley Effect," which all black candidates face between the opinion polls and the ballot box. It was independents going for McCain, who didn't turn out for Obama. It was the fact that more women voted than men. It was the huge turnout. It was the weekend debate before the voting. It was because Kang and Kodos from The Simpsons were really running the election.

Or whatever. You can expect plenty of that sort of microscopic analysis of exit polls from all sides for the next few days and weeks. Political pontificators of all stripes will be falling all over each other to point fingers and explain why everyone got it completely wrong.

Not me. I'm just going to admit we all blew it, and look for the silver lining. Because there is one, and it's huge. It's not good news for political reporters and opinionators, but it's great news for the voters.

Now, don't get us opinionators wrong -- we absolutely love a scrappy good election fight, and all of us will be absolutely salivating over the prospect of a real race now (instead of a "coronation"). Heck, we'd all be in nirvana if both campaigns wound up resulting in actual open convention fights! It gives us more to write about, for months on end!

But while most in Medialand will have their own novel explanation for why everyone getting it wrong was a complete aberration and couldn't possibly ever happen again because lightning simply doesn't strike twice... I, personally, am completely embracing the idiocy of all of our predictions.

We got it WRONG! Doesn't that tell you (yes, you!) -- the media consumer -- something crucial? It means that we don't really know what we're talking about... and that the only poll that matters is the one that happens on election day. Which means that you should spit in the eye of everyone who tries to tell you: "the race is over, you shouldn't even bother voting" -- and go vote for who you believe in anyway.

Because sometimes the voters surprise the media. And who's to say it won't happen in your primary? So get out there and vote for your candidate. Take whatever I -- and everyone else -- say with an enormous grain of salt. A virtual boulder of salt.

Because you just might prove us to be wrong.

And what could be more fun in an election than that?

 

Chris Weigant blogs at: ChrisWeigant.com

 

Comments

[edzeppelin]

Great post. You are right. Everyone must vote, regardless of who the media may have anointed or who the polls say already has won.

[carfino]

It should be noted that the polling was indeed accurate in terms of what the pollster were told. They had no idea they were lied to by a substantial number of those polled, but this has happened before so they shouldn't be surprised. Allow me to offer an opinion as to why they were so "wrong".

I think I can offer an answer to the question with a very brief story. About 18-20 years ago or so in California there was a gubernatorial race that included the ubiquitous Republican empty suit named Pete Wilson. Pete Wilson was a very typical California Republican, meaning he was white, wealthy and backed by corporate America. That year the Dem's put up the very popular Mayor of Los Angeles, Tom Bradley. Bradley was a former policeman, city council member, middle class.........and black. All the polls had Bradley ahead up to election day by a margin of nearly 10%. The exit polls had Bradley winning. The race was called by all the networks in Bradley's favor. Yet when the ballots were counted.....Bradley had lost by nearly 10%.

Moral of the story........when polled, a large number of the participants said they intended to (prior to the election) or did vote (as noted in exit polls) for Bradley. Turns out....the majority had lied to the pollsters....they didn't want to be thought of as racist. But in the confines of the voting booth......they exercised their racism.

[Nutcase]

The recipe is too complex to depend on just one or two ingredients. All of those reasons could have played a role, to a greater or lesser extent. As though one is needed, I offer just one more. The people of NH see their primary and their role as being of importance. Some of them were determined not to simply accept as fiat that Iowa had decided the winner. They were going to vote not only in a different style but in a different direction.

Thank you, New Hampshire

[cheforacle]

And also I hope that this shows those that assert that neither the MSM nor corporations choose our candidates as many have asserted over the last several days. Rather the corporate interests do influence the system greatly by donating money but if you took away Obama's individual donations he would not be in the position money-wise to compete with Clinton. And Huckabee would not be in a better position if it were the case. And the MSM wields enormous influence when they decide how to divvy up their finite time and limited space but voters still don't follow that. The MSM didn't win it for HRC in NH and many in the profession had written off McCain months ago. The voters ultimately decide. In last night's case, I surmise, that women voters broke for Hillary and last minute voters put her over the top.

Now we have a national contest in both races and while the media and corporations will continue to play a big role the voters, as always, will render the ultimate decision.

[suki21693]

Perhaps if certain people stopped trying to predict the future, maybe we could get some accurate information about what is going on in the present.

[TheWinch]

Thank you so much for this. I just hope in the next week(s) we don't hear more bloviators telling us how sure something is. Then maybe we can have more detailed discussions about our candidates views (and attitudes) rather than all this CRAP about momentum and certainty. Hey, who knows, maybe the nominee for at least one party will come from NONE of the 4 winners in the past week.

And maybe the media will stop excluding so many people from debates, or from their discussion as viable candidates.

But I doubt it.

[Dap]

Dear Chris,

I agree with you the American People won in NH, and I'm happy for that, all I'll ever want is a true representative government, one of the People's choice... *Not* special interests. Agape.