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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
dawgspiel
Never, never, never give up.
05:59 AM on 04/27/2012
What's interesting here is the voting pattern for the last three elections. The only states where the President, at this point anyway, is showing any signs of significant weakness that he won in 2008 are Iowa (6), Nevada (6), North Carolina (15), and Virginia; and all of those states voted for the shrub in 2000 and 2004. So far, Romney has not made any significant inroads into Obama's electoral base. Anything, of course, can happen. But any republican strategist looking at this map should be white as a sheet. (heh, heh, heh, pun intended). If Europe doesn't blow a complete gasket and the unemployment keeps falling as now predicted, there is no way Romney can win.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
dopper0189
11:11 PM on 04/27/2012
What's even more amazing is that he has a realistic chance of replacing Indiana's 11 electoral votes with Arizona's 11 electoral votes.
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NewEnglandMan22
Liberal & proud.. we always win!
08:56 AM on 04/29/2012
I think an Arizona victory would knock the country's socks off! I'm amazed and hopeful!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
loggerboots
WELL RETIRED UAW.
02:30 AM on 05/14/2012
check virginia again and nevada, wan't a smile check arizona.......
MissouriModerate
Extremism is harmful to your mental health
07:31 PM on 04/26/2012
Love this...already added to favorites. :)
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Joe Pithier
Mitt should've called his book "Yes, Apology."
09:33 PM on 04/28/2012
Hey...you should fill everyone who's saying "no way Missouri goes blue" in on the realities of the state, given your profile.
MissouriModerate
Extremism is harmful to your mental health
09:58 PM on 04/28/2012
I always say I am an "optimistic pragmatist"...it applies here. I want MO to go blue, but the reality is it will be a close call. During the 90's the state was light blue in spirit...we had Mel Carnahan and he was a uniting force. Since Bush, there is a lot of animosity and the state definitely turned red. The fact that it is not "leaning red", but is a "toss up", on this map, is probably accurate. The legislature is like many of the GOP-led legislatures, it has been focused on passing laws that are troubling to many Missourians. Women will be a big factor and it doesn't look good for the GOP. Claire McCaskill is a force to be dealt with; however, she is a conservative Democrat and her record will have to pull her through with some women voters. I love her, even when I disagree with her. The other woman, GOP Sarah Steelman, didn't even know what the "Violence Against Women Act" was...usually that kind of ignorance doesn't matter in MO, but I think this year it will hurt her. I'm as curious as you are...hence, my interest in this map. Check back, later! :)
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Playlist
Ain't Nothing Wrong With A Little Bump & Grind.
07:22 PM on 04/26/2012
It's like this until the election...Obama all the way!!! the only people h8ting are the in Foxtown, Beckistan and Rushville..and Koch's money goes right with their toilet paper.....
Mildmannered
"Be excellent to each other"
06:59 PM on 04/26/2012
Missouri should be pink -- it ain't going for Obama
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
wolfsvssarah
Uga Uga Boo Uga Boo Boo Uga
07:21 PM on 04/26/2012
Pink? Missouri? I had no idea? hehe
MissouriModerate
Extremism is harmful to your mental health
07:31 PM on 04/26/2012
Don't be so sure...women vote!
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bxgrrl
Everything's subject to change without notice.
11:53 PM on 04/28/2012
And they're for Obama.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
profco
Freedom- just another word for nothin left to lose
06:39 PM on 04/26/2012
Alot of polls from Purple Strategies lately that show Romney ahead. Might it have anything to do with the fact that the founder of Purple Strategies is Alex Castellanos, a U.S. Republican Party political media consultant who was a top media adviser to George W. Bush's 2004 presidential campaign and Mitt Romney's 2008 presidential campaign? Castellanos served as "a key creative member" to the Bush-Cheney 2004 election, team. Among the spots he produced was the “Wolves” commercial. He claims to have helped elect 9 U.S. senators, 6 governors, and has over two decades of political consulting experience, both in the United States and abroad. He also produced the 2000 election ad that showed the words "rats" alongside images of Al Gore for a split second, before the complete word "bureaucrats" appeared on-screen. (Castellanos claimed it was an accident.)

Purple Strategies says on its website that " As a full-service public affairs firm, our clients can draw on the expertise they need for messaging and media. And with seamless collaboration across our core practice areas, Purple has the proven capacity to execute a comprehensive communications strategy for corporations, trade associations, non-profit organizations and advocacy groups." Yeah, like the BP disaster slogan "We will get this done. We will make this right." According CNN Money, "the TV spot was produced by the Washington-based, bipartisan political consulting firm Purple Strategies."

And now Castellanos is a pollster???
07:59 PM on 04/26/2012
Rasmussen polls those that are likely to vote not just registered voters.........and Obama has a problem. Plus many middle class americans and independents are not real happy with how things have turned out so they will vote against the incumbent.
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Joe Pithier
Mitt should've called his book "Yes, Apology."
01:56 PM on 04/27/2012
Rasmussen uses its own criteria to determine what qualifies as a likely voter. There IS no agreed upon formula for a "likely voter," so Rasmussen's results are skewed (slightly) to serve its own purposes. I, for one, don't find it an invalid polling source...but I do strongly disagree with the implication you're making (that it's better than those that don't do the "likely voter" thing).

Moreover, even Rasmussen supports the current polling report stated above. Therefore, assuming you're right...Obama's in good shape for November. Not perfect shape (only an idiot partisan would claim that), but good shape.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
loggerboots
WELL RETIRED UAW.
02:33 AM on 05/14/2012
Independents could throw their votes to paul,no gain for romney
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
mstock57
Go commando
05:17 PM on 04/26/2012
Here come the accusations of liberal bias.
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Joe Pithier
Mitt should've called his book "Yes, Apology."
02:54 PM on 04/27/2012
I'm voting against that daggum Reality in November.
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Afterseven
Palinista, Deal with it.
03:51 PM on 04/26/2012
LA Times June 2004: John Kerry 51% George Bush 44% lol #fail

Democrat Pollsters what a complete and total joke.
MissouriModerate
Extremism is harmful to your mental health
07:33 PM on 04/26/2012
I don't think this is the FINAL polling information. There are polls on here that I don't agree with...it's one tool for analysis...analyze!!
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Afterseven
Palinista, Deal with it.
10:48 PM on 05/01/2012
I think that was all the analysis necessary...a point that even a liberal could understand.
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Joe Pithier
Mitt should've called his book "Yes, Apology."
02:01 PM on 04/27/2012
A national poll five months before the election got the popular vote wrong by about 6% and you're using it as a basis for a complaint of liberal bias? Man, that's weak. You do know that five months is quite a long time in presidential politics, right?

Nah, forget it. I'm engaging the wrong people on HP these days.
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Afterseven
Palinista, Deal with it.
10:51 PM on 05/01/2012
I'm not complaining about liberal bias at all. The issue is the relevance of a Democrat leaning poll, and to be honest, any poll, this far out from the election. The relevance being = Zilch. Polls this far out do not accurately predict the Presidency. Ever. #Fact.
03:50 PM on 04/26/2012
The Obama people are beginning to remind of Bahdad Bob. They really are starting to believe their own propaganda. Pathetic.
08:44 PM on 04/26/2012
What are they suppose to believe in Liberty? Hope and Change? LOL
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Joe Pithier
Mitt should've called his book "Yes, Apology."
02:06 PM on 04/27/2012
They seem very attached to looking at polling data and commenting upon it to make perfectly reasonable assessments of Obama and Romney's respective chances in November, pointing out that Obama's in better, though not perfect, shape. I especially note those, like myself, that point out that the above state designations are supported even by Gallup, Rasmussen, and Fox News (valid polling sources which lean to the right).

What a bunch of clearly biased fo0ls. I h@te them so much.
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Afterseven
Palinista, Deal with it.
03:46 PM on 04/26/2012
71% of people in Missouri expressly voted to outlaw the Obamacare Mandate. Not sure how that makes Missouri a toss up....you people may want to rethink that.

Unemployed former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman leads McCaskill 49 percent to 42 percent; and even liberal polls show McCaskill's approval rating at 42% approve 49% disapprove.....with her best known act being her support for Obamacare.

Anyone who thinks MO is voting anything other than red has been asleep at the wheel for the last 3 years.....and should take a good hard look at ANY poll that suggests MO is breaking for Obama or is somehow a toss-up.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
wolfsvssarah
Uga Uga Boo Uga Boo Boo Uga
07:23 PM on 04/26/2012
Who cares?
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Afterseven
Palinista, Deal with it.
10:47 PM on 05/01/2012
Apparently anyone who read the article. You should take up reading some time. It helps greatly when trying to keep up in these threads.
08:38 PM on 04/26/2012
Anyone that has a clue about MO knows it will vote red in NOV.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
loggerboots
WELL RETIRED UAW.
02:36 AM on 05/14/2012
in 2008 Missouri was the last state to call,it went to mccain.....Obama won't need it anyway.
03:37 PM on 04/26/2012
Romney is going to gain a lot of momentum over the next few months as Obama spins his campaign of avoiding his economic recovery failure.
"Can I hear an amen?"
08:46 PM on 04/26/2012
Amen but he is aleady spinning it .........no one could run on his record.
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bonthomme
"Don't you know who I think I was?"
09:03 PM on 04/27/2012
the bar is pretty low. Bush ran two ineptly prosecuted wars, destroyed the budget, ballooned the deficit, and even presided over the loss of pallets of $100 bills, and still got reelected.

compared to that, Obama is Jesus and Santa Claus combined.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
loggerboots
WELL RETIRED UAW.
02:41 AM on 05/14/2012
problem romney keeps talkin and talkin himself out of stuff, he would probable be better being a bit more quiet. also he should be carefull of the fund raising he is doing. last week he attended a fund raiser at the home of the CEO of the company that makes the morning
after pill.......stupid
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Afterseven
Palinista, Deal with it.
03:03 PM on 04/26/2012
BREAKING: Carter gaining in lead over Reagan. Carter poised for landslide victory!

Enjoy the kool-aid.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
trueistrue
03:41 PM on 04/26/2012
Gotta love the "logic" here. Yes, the polls COULD flip completely and reverse themselves like in the Carter/Reagan election. But if you look at how the vast majority of elections have turned out, the chances of that happening are pretty low.
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Afterseven
Palinista, Deal with it.
11:29 PM on 05/01/2012
You base that assertion on what exactly? Sources please. Lets see all that awesome data 6 months out that accurately predicts voter turnout and percentages in November...can't wait.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
mstock57
Go commando
05:19 PM on 04/26/2012
I'm thinking more likely Reagan over Mondale applies here. You know where the incumbent trounced the challenger.
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Afterseven
Palinista, Deal with it.
11:31 PM on 05/01/2012
Then your thinking would be wrong...because high unemployment, the worst housing market in history, rampant food and gasoline inflation and the most unpopular single piece of legislation in US history are not really a recipe for success.
02:59 PM on 04/26/2012
This is not accurate at all. Wishful thinking on the part of Obamaists at the huffpo.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
trueistrue
03:46 PM on 04/26/2012
How is it wishful thinking? It's based entirely on polls.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
mstock57
Go commando
05:20 PM on 04/26/2012
They just write it off to liberal bias. Gotta love the Fox News bubble.
08:39 PM on 04/26/2012
Agreed
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02:57 PM on 04/26/2012
California dreaming....
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Texanbybirth
Embarrassing Socialists from coast to coast
02:53 PM on 04/26/2012
Do you really think Obama has a chance in WI? After Walker gets re-elected it will be over for Chavez.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Matt Chernesky
Little Gay Monster on HuffPost
03:29 PM on 04/26/2012
He won't need Wisconsin when he has Ohio. Our fantastic Governor is ruining any chances for Republicans.
08:40 PM on 04/26/2012
Obama will not take OHIO.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
mstock57
Go commando
05:21 PM on 04/26/2012
Rick Perry is that you?
02:47 PM on 04/26/2012
The US deserves what is coming to it if this guy wins again.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
mstock57
Go commando
05:21 PM on 04/26/2012
Why do you hate America?
08:41 PM on 04/26/2012
Really you do not have to worry about it.......