More

For a Solution in Afghanistan, Look South...and In the Past

What's Your Reaction?

It has been reported that President Obama is considering military options for Afghanistan that range from a complete military commitment, such as has been suggested by General McChrystal with 40,000 added troops, to a focus on training the Afghan armed forces and police, as has been suggested by Vice President Biden, to a drawdown or even a complete withdrawal of our troops. This debate has used historical analogies that range from the British experience in Afghanistan in the nineteenth century to the Soviet Union experience in Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989 and the American experience in Vietnam. The process has been deliberate, and it reminds us of the debates between Churchill, Roosevelt and the military command that occurred in 1942 and 1943 assigning priorities to the European and Pacific theaters and the invasion of North Africa. This may be frustrating to the news cycle of the punditry, but the lives of young women and men are at stake.

The rationales given for the United States range from the pragmatic necessity to deny al Qaeda a base and to protect the stability of Pakistan to the need to create a viable nation state in Afghanistan after our invasion, and our moral responsibility to protect the Afghan people, and particularly Afghan women, from the Taliban.

In our national debate, we have forgotten that in the twentieth century the United States faced a problem similar to the one in Afghanistan and that was much more serious and involved major United States economic interests on its southern border -- the Mexican Revolution. Through a combination of wise leadership and some fortunate historical accidents, the problems stemming from this Revolution were solved with only limited American intervention. With only a few exceptions American intervention was limited and covert.

After the expulsion of the Emperor Maximilian in 1867, Porfirio Díaz evolved from national hero, to president of Mexico, to a dictator who ruled Mexico for many years. In 1911, he was overthrown. In 1913, Madero, the elected president, was murdered in a coup supported by the United States Ambassador. General Huerta, who succeeded him, was in turn deposed a year later. The Federal Army was disbanded and Mexico became the bear pit for the armies of competing revolutionary generals. Generals Villa, Zapata, Carranza, Calles, Obregon were warlords leading armies they had raised. Mexico was also a base for attacks on the United States by indigenous forces that we would now call terrorists. As one example there was the raid on the U.S. by Pancho Villa. There were also United States military interventions in Mexico. It 1916, there was a punitive expedition led by General Pershing, and in 1914 the United States occupied the port of Vera Cruz. There were attempts by Germany to use Mexico against the United States, (recall the Zimmerman Telegram). The threats to the United States and its interests then exceed any threat posed by Afghanistan today.

The Mexican Revolution is estimated to have cost one million lives. This was almost ten percent of the population and was one of the bloodiest wars of the twentieth century. General Calles co-opted the Mexican elite and the political organization that they created evolved into the PRI, the political party that ruled Mexico until 2000. The revolutionary generals were brought under control through a combination of bribes, assignations and political cooptation. There was once a popular saying in Mexico: "No general can withstand a cannonade of fifty thousand pesos." Whether due to necessities that resulted from the war in Europe, wise leadership, or both, U.S. intervention in Mexico was limited and covert. This should be our policy in Afghanistan today.

President Wilson did not believe that the United States had a duty to intervene in 1912 to prevent one million casualties and create in Mexico a democracy that would be a model for Latin America. The Pershing Expedition in 1916 suggests that any American intervention would have been very costly. We suspect that if one were to poll Mexicans today, a substantial majority would prefer to have been allowed to develop their own institutions as opposed to having these institutions imposed by the Colossus of the North, even if it would have avoided the cost of the Revolution.

The overwhelming self-interest of the United States is its own safety. It does not have the political will to expend the resources that would be necessary to occupy and to control Afghanistan long enough to change the culture to one that would be to our liking, assuming this was possible. Like Mexico, there will be death and suffering. The Taliban are horrible, but so were the armies of the Mexican revolutionary generals.

There are two questions that must be answered. The first is political: should the Administration compel the citizens of the United States to pay for a war unless it is in the clear self interest of the United States and is a war of necessity.

The second question is one of morality. The war is not being fought completely by volunteers. We are compelling young women and men to go and die in Afghanistan against their will. Many regular soldiers are on their second, third and fourth tours. We are activating National Guard units for deployment overseas. It is true that negotiating with the Taliban will have horrible consequences, but do we have a duty to rescue Afghans from their own institutions? Do we have the moral right to compel our young women and men to risk their lives when it is not an American interest that is at stake? The question that should be posed to the generals is: Can you fight this war in the manner you propose if no one is compelled to serve in Afghanistan against their will?

If the answer is no then it is time to a return to the successful strategy that we had used when we first invaded Afghanistan right after the 9/11 attack but that has been forgotten or ignored in the eight years since then. That strategy was to send in CIA operatives with bags of money to buy off the warlords rather than troops with weapons. John Lehman, the former Secretary of the Navy, noted in an editorial in The Washington Post in 2006 that, "What made the Afghan campaign a landmark in the U.S. Military's history is that it was prosecuted by Special Operations forces from all the services, along with Navy and Air Force tactical power, operations by the Afghan Northern Alliance and the CIA were equally important and fully integrated. No large Army or Marine force was employed." [Emphasis added]


Dagobert L. Brito is Peterkin Professor of Political Economy at Rice University and Michael D. Intriligator is Professor of Economics, Political Science, and Public Policy at UCLA

 
 
 
 
  • Comments
  • 36
  • Pending Comments
  • 0
  • View FAQ
Comments are closed for this entry
View All
Favorites
Bloggers
Recency  | 
Popularity
Page: 1 2  Next ›  Last »  (2 total)
06:25 AM on 10/17/2009
It may take something like this to turn the US public against the war
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Brydon

the Taleban have already successfully attacked isolated US outposts in large numbers (scandalously isolated), my sense is they are working towards a big one, attacks across the country designed to undermine US political position back home.

McChrystal will get his 40,000 troops and six-eight months to do something with them, you could have 600,000 troops wandering around the mountains of Afghanistan and little would change.

I agree with posts on the 'strategic' importance of Afghanistan, an 'important' piece of real estate wedged between Iran, Russia, India and China, the Vietnam parallel does seem over drawn but there are similarities, clueless militiary strategy, mass killing of civilians (which fuels the resistance - vicious cycle), isolated capital loosely controlled by bankrupt regime, external powers happy to see US bogged down, distracted, losing life and treasure at a time of major economic problems.

For every pipe or house they fix they practically kill a couple of civilians, just yesterday pictures on Al Jazeera showed a very young girl dead after a missile attack, the whole village/town was enraged, absurd battle 'for hearts and minds' like Vietnam is a complete farce, and to echo Frick's account of Iraq, this is fiasco number II. Military campaign is certainly unwinnable, politicial strategy is to do just enough so Obama can win the next election.
06:41 PM on 10/14/2009
None of the commentary addresses the overarching problem with a Biden resignation; Pelosi as Vice President. Case closed. Joe has to stay.
06:40 PM on 10/14/2009
"Problems stemming from this Revolution were solved with only limited American intervention.” Nothing can be further from the truth. Leaving aside taking by force Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, California, our government sent troops into Mexico under Wilson a total of 11 times during his administration alone. Hardly limited or covert when US troops march through the cities of Mexico and take over the capital.

The folly is in believing that the USA has supported democracy at anytime when not in the interests of American businesses. We have overthrown democratically elected governments in Haiti, Cuba, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Chile, Argentina, Guatemala, Honduras, and attempted to do so under Bush in Venezuela and Bolivia - just in this hemisphere.

The lie is that anyone really gives a damn about insurgents (i.e. people who do oppose the American occupation of their country) when it is really all about protecting the pipelines that pass through Afghanistan. Hard to succeed at protecting the cities when troops are concentrated at bases along the route of the pipeline hundreds of miles away. The real military mission which is much different from the official military mission and there are not the resources to do both.

I fear not the Taliban or bin Laden and his followers, but I do fear our government, the military industrial complex that determines our government’s policies and actions, and I fear the power given to Blackwater and other mercenary organizations operating in the USA and abroad which operate outside the law.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
WhitneyKyle
06:22 PM on 10/14/2009
Mexico's problems in 1912 were the direct result of the US intervention in 1846 to 1848. At the time, Mexico was seen as the only serious threat to US aims under the banner of Manifest Destiny. The US could ill afford to have a powerful neighbor to the south getting in its way.
It has no parallels to the war in Afghanistan. In Afghanistan, we protecting the flow of oil from the middle of Asia as it flows across the northern region into Pakistan and out to port. We don't import this oil, but a handfull of our richest citizens profit from the flow if this oil.
Our armed men and women must die while killing Afghanistans to protect the incomes of these few very rich US citizens, even though they pay no taxes on this income to pay for this security service we provide them, free of charge. We will die to protect the revenues of the rich, even when doing so is not in our national interests. Its the American way.
05:53 AM on 10/17/2009
Thank God somebody knows their history and is prepared to put the record straight!!!!

Great comment, reference to Monroe Doctrine is spot on! (manifest destiny) from the canadian border to the tip of Argentina, the great US backyard.
06:21 PM on 10/14/2009
Bull-----

Afghanistan is not Mexico and the Islmic extremists are not Mexico's gangster generals. The Mexican warlords only wanted money and power, so they could easily be bought off. The Islamic terror orgs want to terrorise the West, and it is argualbly only a matter of time before they get nuclear or biological arms and do something really disgusting. Pakistan has nukes and Iran isnt far from them. And thse are the kind of maniacs who stone young girls to death for getting raped! These are the kind of maniacs who routinely murder their own daughters and sisters! These are the kind of maniacs who attach bombs to childern and retarded people and send them to play with the Americns.

Thse people make even Hitler and Stalin look reasonable. I am not sure there is rom on the planet for both Western-ahem-civilisation and radical Islamism. Utterly destroying them may be a matter of self-preservation , just as destroying the insanely imperialist regimes of Hitler and Tojo was.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
RogerHWerner
01:44 AM on 10/15/2009
If what you say is true, and if the majority of Americans (and the West) can be convinced of this reality, then indeed we have no choice but to destroy Afghanistan, destroy its cities and kill most of its people. Same for Iran, Pakistan, anyone else with like minded ideology. Translating such black and white sentiments into practical policy is rather stark. Are you ready to start carpet bombing every thing that lives in Afghanistan? Women, children whatever? If you aren't, if you balk at such ugliness, then perhaps you ought to rethink your black and white ideology. Perhaps you're right. I don't have an answer. For sure however, those in a position to know had better make their case and do it fast. We need to get serious in Afghanistan and I don't mean another 40k troops into the fodder mill. If the place is such a threat that lets blow it to hell and be done with it. Anyone doesn't like it we blow them to hell too...but where does it stop? These are not easy questions but please don't talk as if the situation were black and white. If it were Europe, Russia, and China would be standing with us but in case you missed it they aren't. Aren't you curious why? I sure am.
03:14 PM on 10/14/2009
Interesting article, but the assumptions are all wrong. Terrorism is a distraction from the real issues. The US is replaying the Great Game that Russia and Britain played in Central Asia. The big prize is Caspian Basin oil. The U.S. opposes the Peace pipeline from Iran through Pakistan to India and preferred the TAPI pipeline through Afghanistan to India. It's a shoving match for strategic power between China, Russia, Iran, and India. The U.S. views foreign troops in Afghanistan as victory, not failure. As in Vietnam, the people who happen to live there don't matter at all to the strategic calculation. Unfortunately all war, like politics, is local. The U.S. and NATO troops are doomed to failure in a game dictated by Washington think tanks.
12:13 PM on 10/14/2009
Perhaps, but left to their own devices, Muslim majority states usually end up with something between a Taliban caliphate and Hussein's dictatorship.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
RogerHWerner
01:50 AM on 10/15/2009
Ok is that any better than the country of the flay you use for an icon? I've been to Israel several times and I have to tell you that if you're Palestinian, the Hussein government looked pretty good. And for all t he purported democracy in Israel, I had Hasidim toss rocks at me for daring to drive during Shabat and we needed police protection when the Hasidim thought we were excavating Jewish burials at an archaeological site (We weren't). Don't embrace the Israeli flag and talk to me about the evils of extremism. There are forces in Israel (and the US) that are different but just as extreme as those in Afghanistan. In case you missed it, America had a doctor murdered in Kansas not to long ago for performing a legal medical procedure. He was murdered for religious reasons.
12:01 PM on 10/14/2009
Here's a simpler Poppystan solution: back your toothbrush and leave NOW! Failure to get those soldiers out soon will lead to many of them being stranded there at the mercy of the locals for food and shelter by fall 2010. The US is broke is a precedent setting way.
12:14 PM on 10/14/2009
Childish....
11:36 AM on 10/14/2009
Able analysts well imbeded in Afghan cultures and Afghans I had known since the Russian invasion all present a picture of McChrystal as indiscriminant killer of Afghnas to keep his troops alive. Since the issue now is, not 40,000, but 80,000 more, imagine how many Afghnas have to die to keep the US troops safe and how many more Americans are doomed; McChrystal never did anything well other than killing Iraqis using assassination squads. He's a killer may be capable of taking...but not holding and building. McChrystal is part of West Point's class of 1976, a time when a military career ranked with sanitation engineer. Can America afford this war? Can it afford the losses? Can it get anything from these losses? We will never know from reading McChrystal's proposal to Obama for it reads like the rationale for bailing out Wall Street: YA GOTTA DO IT OR MELTDOWN! FRONTLINE's "Obama's War" showed us what fish out of water are the 20,000 Marines McChrystal demanded and got in June. It shows they're INCAPABLE of coping. It's not like Vietnam where everybody went-- the best and the worst-- and the best took over. This is a force of men down on their luck trained only to destroy, not build. That's what the Taliban is counting on. Mujahadeens are willing to die for their mission; our soldiers only to kill. Bring them home safe to rebuild America.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
lambdin1
What's this?
10:15 AM on 10/14/2009
I've often wondered what would happen if we just let nations fight it out within their borders. Defend ourselves, yes. But let nations find their own way. It may take longer. But if you added up all the lives lost and the years of those lives, it will still be a shorter period of time!
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
02:42 PM on 10/14/2009
We are an impatient society. One that thinks we know what is best for all the world and the planet. And yet, we are reluctant to help our own.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
RogerHWerner
01:52 AM on 10/15/2009
We know what's best especially when there is a pipeline at stake.
HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
WorkingClass
09:58 AM on 10/14/2009
Washington cannot pay its debts. Not now, not ever. Washington is broke, bankrupt, insolvent. The American empire is finished and soon the legions will return from around the globe. Life will go on without us in Afghanistan.
photo
visper
Reader, traveler, consultant, husband, father
09:20 AM on 10/14/2009
The Mexican Revolutionary period, as an example of a limited intervention by the US, is an inappropriate comparison: One could argue that intervention in Mexico was not in the self interest of the US but that parochial government reasons set it off . Henry Lane Wilson, the ambassador, acted on his own trying to further his own career; and later, the retaliation to the one attack by Pancho Villa to a small hamlet in New Mexico, Columbus, was more of an excuse whipped up by the press and an exercise for the military to prepare for World War I rather than a real concern for the safety of the US.

What is happening today in the decision of what to do with Afghanistan is probably contrary to what occurred then--now the president is deliberately and openly seeking consensus as to what the objective of US intervention is. Is it Taliban, Al Qaida, Nation state building, or just retaliation against an attacker (a more serious one than Villa). Further the situation is less circunscribed. Getting rid of Al Qaida in Afghanistan does not eliminate the possibility of its morfing in Pakistan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Yemen, Sudan with satellite cells in European or American cities. The ideological force of the Taliban (wahabbism) comes from Saudi Arabia--nothing stops this ideology from moving on to other areas in Western, or Eastern Asia.

There is no historical precedent to the situation in Western and Southern Asia.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Cosatjockomo
12:45 PM on 10/14/2009
The retaliation boat has passed. It'd be termed vindictiveness now. Afghanistan should have been a radioactive wasteland on Sept 12, 2001. It would have been justifiable, understandable, and forgivable at that time. Too late now, golden opportunity missed.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
RogerHWerner
01:57 AM on 10/15/2009
And don't don't forget the Caspian basin. Don;t think for a moment this doesn't figure into US thinking. If I may be Devil's advocate for a moment, anyone posting to this article care to learn how to ride a horse? I own a couple so for me it would be a considerable sacrifice to give up my automobile but for most people they would know a bit from a bridle and the notion of shoveling horses*** a horror. The issue is oil and our need for it. Same issue was at stake in Iraq. As long as we are dependent on a commodity we don;t have we won't feel safe. Still... I support limited involvement in Afghanistan and ridding our country of McChrystal.
08:30 AM on 10/14/2009
Interesting analysis, but not absolutely right. Peace in any country rarely comes from without, rather it must come from within. The people are responsible. That's not to say they can't use help, but it is frequently difficult to intervene equitably. Unfortunately our leaders after all these years still haven't identified the bad guys or a strategy to find them. This makes it tough for the troops. Even worse for our economy. The Bush people in their arogance and military inexperience failed to understand how devastating to an economy a war is. It is really hard to accept thar our leaders have really had national interests in mind for many years.

As for the troops, you are dead wrong. It is unfortunate that they are having to make multiple trip to the war zone. But make no mistake, they are volunteers. They signed up and took oaths, as I did. .
02:35 AM on 10/14/2009
Please review authors' "...our moral responsibility to protect... Afghan women, from the Taliban."
The professors are off base, I am afraid, about moral responsibility. SInce they are citing the past, present and the future, let's ask them about how we executed our moral responsibility in Iraq. The civilian administrator got the $16 billion to distribute to the hungry people--instead that money was misappropriated--where did it go? Even the defeated military revolted out of starvation and frustration, but we called them Saddam loyalists! What about our moral responsibility of finding WMD since that was the primary prtext-- and since we could not find any, our moral responsibility is should have been " sorry, no WMD, mission accomplished," and get out quick. No exit strategy was necessary.
In fact if this president has naything, he has always displayed moral responsibility and has been criticised by his reckless adversaries. Maybe the world is safer due to him alone, and the Nobel committee found him very important for world peace. This was lacking in his predecessor.
Gentlmen, we are fighting against an ideology. By itself it is not rogue, as we want to make it. And I know.
The way we are engaging, more civilian militia in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, will be driven to their conviction that continued war is not fair. It has to end, or else we will be strategizing for an exit strategy. Military fighting against a popular uprising against invasion is, in fact, a dangerous proposition.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Paramendra Bhagat
Tech Entrepreneur/Consultant, Democracy Activist,
10:08 PM on 10/13/2009
Afghanistan is a tough call.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
RogerHWerner
02:05 AM on 10/15/2009
Your's is one of the most logical and reasonable statement I've read under this article. Afghanistan is a very tough call. Superficially, it seems easy: We should leave. But most people including myself don't have all the facts and can't imagine this struggle on a more grandiose geopolitical scale. The implications are fairly large and whatever decision is made has to made cautiously and with all the facts understood. Personally, I don;t believe Afghanistan was worth the life of one American. It's not our country. I wish the solution were so simple.