Many people are confident the Democrats will win by a landslide
in 2008. I'm not one of them. They can lose, and I don't mean by
fraud, or confusing ballots, or confused Supreme Court justices.
They can lose by misreading the mood of the country and
advocating more of the same in foreign policy when the public
wants drastic change.
If people want change, you can't win by advocating no change.
Even if you have intrinsically more to offer than your opponent,
you can lose if enough people who want drastic change stay home
and don't vote. In American politics, it's happened before and it
can happen again. If between now and November of next year the
Democratic leadership causes too many people to become
disenchanted, the Democrats can lose the election and the future
of the country.
Most people in America want us to get out of Iraq and fast. They
see Iraq as quicksand sucking in our money and our moral fiber.
They see Iraq as an example of tribalism, a multi-tribal
fractious place without any sense of nationality. You can't build
a democratic nation-state if people have more allegiance to their
tribe than to the nation. America's founders had something close
to that problem, and they were able to solve it only because they
had the Enlightenment and Western civilization behind them. The
Iraqis don't have much behind them except centuries of the
theocratic Ottoman Empire and the tyranny of Saddam Hussein.
That's not the sort of history that easily produces a unified
democratic society or a democratic federation of states. In
theory it can be done, but so far there's no apparent willingness
among the majority of Iraqis to do it. Their conflicts are
essentially tribal conflicts, not conflicts of political
principles. Conflicts of political principles can be settled by
compromise. Tribal conflicts are usually settled only by war.
The most important current failing of major Democrats in public
view is a hovering at the Center when the majority of the people
in America apparently want to move Left. The Democrats seem
afraid to alienate the Center-Right and Right, when their biggest
fear should be alienation of Center-Left and Left. If the Center-
Left and Left don't vote because they find Republicans despicable
and Democrats not much better, the Democrats may lose the coming
election.
The present Democratic leadership in Congress is the greatest
weakness of the Democrats: too much old-style bluster and baloney
by people with weak microphone voices, people not articulate
enough to be heavyweights. They were bad choices at the start for
Congressional leadership and they remain bad choices. Nearly
anyone could do better than Harry Reid, who too often looks and
sounds befuddled in front of a microphone. Nancy Pelosi is almost
as bad. These people may be wonderful as people, and smart and
principled and excellent legislators on the floors of the House
and Senate, but they don't make it politically on the TV screen,
and the TV screen is now the whole set of keys to American
politics.
It seems apparent that these two major weaknesses of the
Democrats -- hovering at the Center and ineffectual leadership
voices -- will remain in place until November 2008. It's a
crucial problem, and so far no realistic solution seems feasible.
Given that the continuation of Republicans in the White House
will be a great calamity for this country, a calamity that will
endure for many decades, the natural question is what's to be
done about the weaknesses of the Democrats?
The answer is action by the Left. The American Left needs to get
mobilized and understand that what's needed is a Center-Left
coalition. People on the Left may be disenchanted with Centrist
Democrats, but the fact is the Left cannot gain power alone, and
a Centrist-Left coalition is the best chance we have to avoid the
calamity of another Republican president.
Too many centrist Democrats seem afraid to be labeled "liberal"
or "progressive" if they openly ally with Left-Democrats. It's a
mistake, and this time a continuation of this mistake may bring
America a tragic future.
To be blunt: If the Democrats turn jittery and stop calling for a
quick withdrawal from Iraq, they risk losing a large fraction of
the Center-Left base so vital to their chances in 2008.
The Democratic leadership needs to understand that the barrage of
complaints about their lack of gumption are serious complaints
that should not be ignored.
We're in dire straights, folks. For myself, if the Democrats put
up a blind dog as their candidate, I will certainly vote for the
dog. It's obvious to me that continuing Republican power in the
White House will bring this country nothing but a sad time.
But in order for the Democrats to win the White House, there are
too many people out there who need to be persuaded, and the
Democratic Center and Left need to work together to avoid
election disaster.
So the job ahead may not be as easy as some people think. There's
much work to be done.