Easy As Pie: How the Democrats Can Lose in 2008

Many people are confident the Democrats will win by a landslide in 2008. I'm not one of them. They can lose, and I don't mean by fraud, or confusing ballots, or confused Supreme Court justices. They can lose by misreading the mood of the country and advocating more of the same in foreign policy when the public wants drastic change.

If people want change, you can't win by advocating no change. Even if you have intrinsically more to offer than your opponent, you can lose if enough people who want drastic change stay home and don't vote. In American politics, it's happened before and it can happen again. If between now and November of next year the Democratic leadership causes too many people to become disenchanted, the Democrats can lose the election and the future of the country.

Most people in America want us to get out of Iraq and fast. They see Iraq as quicksand sucking in our money and our moral fiber. They see Iraq as an example of tribalism, a multi-tribal fractious place without any sense of nationality. You can't build a democratic nation-state if people have more allegiance to their tribe than to the nation. America's founders had something close to that problem, and they were able to solve it only because they had the Enlightenment and Western civilization behind them. The Iraqis don't have much behind them except centuries of the theocratic Ottoman Empire and the tyranny of Saddam Hussein. That's not the sort of history that easily produces a unified democratic society or a democratic federation of states. In theory it can be done, but so far there's no apparent willingness among the majority of Iraqis to do it. Their conflicts are essentially tribal conflicts, not conflicts of political principles. Conflicts of political principles can be settled by compromise. Tribal conflicts are usually settled only by war.

The most important current failing of major Democrats in public view is a hovering at the Center when the majority of the people in America apparently want to move Left. The Democrats seem afraid to alienate the Center-Right and Right, when their biggest fear should be alienation of Center-Left and Left. If the Center- Left and Left don't vote because they find Republicans despicable and Democrats not much better, the Democrats may lose the coming election.

The present Democratic leadership in Congress is the greatest weakness of the Democrats: too much old-style bluster and baloney by people with weak microphone voices, people not articulate enough to be heavyweights. They were bad choices at the start for Congressional leadership and they remain bad choices. Nearly anyone could do better than Harry Reid, who too often looks and sounds befuddled in front of a microphone. Nancy Pelosi is almost as bad. These people may be wonderful as people, and smart and principled and excellent legislators on the floors of the House and Senate, but they don't make it politically on the TV screen, and the TV screen is now the whole set of keys to American politics.

It seems apparent that these two major weaknesses of the Democrats -- hovering at the Center and ineffectual leadership voices -- will remain in place until November 2008. It's a crucial problem, and so far no realistic solution seems feasible.

Given that the continuation of Republicans in the White House will be a great calamity for this country, a calamity that will endure for many decades, the natural question is what's to be done about the weaknesses of the Democrats?

The answer is action by the Left. The American Left needs to get mobilized and understand that what's needed is a Center-Left coalition. People on the Left may be disenchanted with Centrist Democrats, but the fact is the Left cannot gain power alone, and a Centrist-Left coalition is the best chance we have to avoid the calamity of another Republican president.

Too many centrist Democrats seem afraid to be labeled "liberal" or "progressive" if they openly ally with Left-Democrats. It's a mistake, and this time a continuation of this mistake may bring America a tragic future.

To be blunt: If the Democrats turn jittery and stop calling for a quick withdrawal from Iraq, they risk losing a large fraction of the Center-Left base so vital to their chances in 2008.

The Democratic leadership needs to understand that the barrage of complaints about their lack of gumption are serious complaints that should not be ignored.

We're in dire straights, folks. For myself, if the Democrats put up a blind dog as their candidate, I will certainly vote for the dog. It's obvious to me that continuing Republican power in the White House will bring this country nothing but a sad time.

But in order for the Democrats to win the White House, there are too many people out there who need to be persuaded, and the Democratic Center and Left need to work together to avoid election disaster.

So the job ahead may not be as easy as some people think. There's much work to be done.